Huge majority of Britons believe recession is imminent, according to Censuswide poll

by | Oct 15, 2022

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More than 4 in 5 Britons believe the UK will dip into recession next year, according to research. A Censuswide poll for InvestingReviews.co.uk found that 83% anticipate a hard landing for the economy in 2023, with just 8% believing that recession can be avoided.

Public pessimism comes despite the Office for National Statistics (ONS) saying that the economy grew in the second quarter of this year, contrary to an earlier reading which said it had contracted.

The poll’s findings likely reflect widespread concern over spiking interest rates and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine which has seen further bloodshed in recent days.

According to the research, public frustration with the Bank of England over its handling of the cost-of-living crisis is mounting following seven successive interest rate hikes.

A large number (73%) said the Bank had gotten its hiking cycle wrong, though respondents were sharply divided over whether rises had come too fast or too slow.

With markets pricing in a series of further interest rate increases amid accelerating prices, 37% said that monetary tightening had been too fast, compared with 36% who thought rate-setters had been too slow (13% said they didn’t know).

The survey revealed widespread public fears that inflation –  currently at 9.9% – may soon climb back into the double digits. Almost half (44%) thought that inflation would rise to 11% (the BoE’s forecasted peak) or above despite a cap on energy prices.

InvestingReviews CEO Simon Jones said: “The Bank of England faces a difficult balancing act as it tries to cool inflation without tipping the country into a deep recession. 

“As our poll shows, the public is almost equally split on whether the current hiking cycle has been too fast or too slow.

“On the other hand, there doesn’t seem to be too much disagreement about the direction the country is heading. A huge majority believe the die is cast and a recession next year is now unavoidable.”

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