UK retail sales unexpectedly fell in September for the fifth month in a row, according to data released on Friday by the Office for National Statistics.
Sales were down 0.2% versus expectations for a 0.5% increase, driven by a fall in non-food sales. The ONS said this was the longest run of monthly declines in a row since the survey began in 1996. Nevertheless, sales remained 4.2% above pre-pandemic levels.
Sales at non-food stores fell 1.4%, with household goods sales down 9.3%, while furniture and lighting stores saw a 14.8% drop in sales. Sales at food stores rose 0.6%, while fuel sales grew 2.9% amid panic at the pumps.
ONS statistician Darren Morgan said: “Household goods were the main driver of this month’s decline with a fall of nearly 10%, while food sales ticked back up after falling last month.”
Bethany Beckett, UK economist at Capital Economics, said the fall in retail sales volumes in September offers more evidence that the economic recovery is fast running out of steam.
“Indeed, this fall came despite the panic-buying related 2.9% m/m rise in petrol sales last month; retail sales volumes excluding fuel fell by 0.6% m/m. Given the backdrop of continued shortages and rising Covid-19 infections, we suspect that retail sales growth will continue to be weak in the coming months.
“Overall, the data support our view that the economic recovery stalled in September. Our forecast is for GDP to return to its February 2020 peak in early 2022, but the risk is that the resurgence in Covid-19 cases and continued shortages means that GDP takes longer to reach that landmark.”
