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Senior economist updates his US elections view

Donald Trump
Donald Trump

Senior economist at AXA IM David Page has updated his view on the US election. Here are the key points.

  • Following a marked worsening in polling in early August, Donald Trump has maintained a consistent pace of recovery to draw almost level with Hillary Clinton in current polling.
  • Trump has campaigned in a more disciplined fashion in recent months and his message appears closer to traditional Republican values.
  • At the same time Clinton has struggled recently, not least with health issues having been diagnosed with pneumonia.
  • We await the reaction to Monday’s TV debate to see if Clinton’s performance was sufficient to arrest Trump’s momentum. Polls at present suggest the election is in the balance.
  • Trump has also moderated his economic manifesto to be closer aligned with House Republican proposals. His policy is now a more corporate focused fiscal stimulus that we think would result in a sustainably faster pace of activity. But some of his other economic proposals could still inflict material damage to the economy.
  • Our analysis provides tentative evidence that equity markets have reacted more nervously as the prospect of a Trump Presidency rises.
  • Both US government yields and the dollar have shown clear evidence of rising with the prospect of a Trump victory.

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