Mortgage & Property

New Insurance Professional

Family Office Bulletin


Mortgage Property

Insurance Professional

Family Office

UK Budget: Brexit disruption to hit Q1 GDP by 0.5%

Brexit disruption at the start of the year will reduce British productivity by 4% over the longer term and hit first quarter GDP by 0.5%, the Office for Budgetary Responsibility said on Wednesday.
In its report on the UK Budget, the OBR said disruption at British ports and a reduction in freight traffic since the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) with the European Union came into force on January 1 had hit exports harder than imports affecting UK supply chains.

Previous forecasts assumed a smooth transition to the new trading relationship with the UK and EU relaxing borders checks initially to give traders time to adjust.

However, in practice, while the UK has delayed or cut stringency in the application of some checks until July 2021, the EU has applied full customs requirements due on exports from Britain, the OBR added.

Commercial traffic flows through the main channel ports fell “significantly” in January, although data on trade volumes for that month would not be available until March 12.

Truck traffic around the key port of Dover was 10% – 15% lower over the second half of January than a year earlier, although traffic levels appear to have recovered in February, the OBR said.

“Data on traffic volumes is only a partial indicator of trade activity and will not reflect factors such as the proportion of empty vehicles and the value of goods in transit,” it said.

The picture was also clouded by the introduction of additional health checks at the EU-UK border to restrict the spread of the ‘Kent’ strain of the virus, and stockpiling by traders on either side of the Channel in the run-up to the end of the transition period on December 31.

“As firms on both sides of the Channel grow accustomed to new trading arrangements, this disruption dissipates, though further disruption is possible when the UK enforces the agreement in full on its side of the border later in the year.”

“At this point, we therefore see no case for altering our 4% of productivity assumption,” the OBR said, referring to forecasts made in November.

The introduction of non-tariff barriers in services, which accounted for 42% of the UK’s exports to the EU in 2019, was “far more significant”it noted, adding that “this channel accounts for much of the long-term reduction in productivity”.

This Week’s Most Read

  • Investing for the year ahead: eight funds and investment trusts for 2022

    The year end is a natural time for people to review their investment portfolios and ensure it is well positioned for the year ahead. Ryan

  • Is your art in the right place?

    By Arthur Byng Nelson, Solicitor and Legal Director at law firm Harold Benjamin. Introduction: Clients with Art For some wealthy individuals a great deal of

  • SJP celebrates its 1000th Chartered Financial Planner

    St. James’s Place (SJP) celebrates surpassing its 1000th adviser to achieve Chartered status. Former law graduate, Molly O’Donnell, came into SJP via the Academy and,

  • Invesco: Outlook for ESG in 2022

    By Cathrine de Coninck-Lopez, Global Head of ESG at Invesco. I have every reason for optimism in 2022. There is clear progress in the environmental,

  • Silent Cyber: a threat for financial advisers?

    By Chris Davies, Executive Director & Co-Lead of IFA Business Unit at Howden The way many of us work has seen a fundamental shift since

  • 7IM partners with Door to strengthen regulatory and stewardship strategies

    7IM today announces that it has partnered with Door, a company dedicated to improving due diligence processes, in a move that will assist the firm

  • Selling the family-owned business: Key considerations for families looking to sell and protect the family legacy

    By Richard Lane, partner in the Corporate and Family Business team at leading law firm Farrer & Co. For a family business owner, the smooth

  • AJ Bell Active v Passive Report 2021

    Only a third of active equity funds (34%) beat a passive alternative this year, according to our latest Manager versus Machine report Active outperformance was

  • The Fall and Rise of Structured Products

    In this episode Ian Lowes, the founder of Structured Products Review, speaks about why the pre-packaged investment strategy is so misunderstood, and how so many

  • Square Mile Academy of funds report ratings round up for November

    Five new ratings, including three Responsible ratings One rating upgraded One fund reintroduced to the Academy of Funds Analysts at Square Mile Investment Consulting and

Keep updated on the most important financial events 

Make sure you are an informed

wealth professional..

Adblock Blocker

We have detected that you are using

adblocking plugin in your browser. 

IFA Magazine