Reports that China has told some institutions to delay orders of Nvidia’s H200 chip highlight the growing geopolitical tension in AI markets, but Matt Britzman of Hargreaves Lansdown says consensus still looks too low – with Nvidia well placed even without China.
Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown:
“Beijing’s reported request for companies to hold off on Nvidia’s H200 chip orders highlights the uneasy balance between regulation, rivalry, and rapid AI adoption. US export approvals may open the door, but geopolitics decides how far companies can step through it. Advanced AI chips now sit at the centre of the strategic rivalry between Washington and Beijing, and China’s reported push to steer buyers toward domestic alternatives has triggered this temporary freeze while it decides the rules of the game. But although the headlines sound dramatic, the broader picture for Nvidia is far more reassuring.
For investors, the real story is that Nvidia doesn’t need China to maintain exceptional momentum. The combined order book for 2025 and 2026 already exceeds $500 billion, even before any contribution from China, and analyst consensus on revenue this year still looks too conservative. At the same time, the next‑generation Vera Rubin platform is in production with meaningful performance gains and a fully committed backlog. All signs point to another year of standout execution from a company positioned firmly at the centre of the AI build‑out, regardless of political noise or talk of bubbles.”
