Industry experts have reacted to the latest House Price Index from the Office for National Statistics, with the data pointing to a housing market that remains stable but increasingly nuanced. While annual house price growth continues, the pace has shown signs of moderation, with regional variation and shifting market dynamics shaping conditions for buyers, sellers and brokers.
Commenting on house prices, Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, said:
“While it is encouraging to witness growth within the housing market year on year, it is also sensible to highlight that the coming months could represent a wind of change when considering the wider global economy.
Even with inflation remaining steady this month, the prospect of any base rate cut when the Monetary Policy Committee next meets does feel potentially slim, especially when considering reports that many households will likely face considerable pressure from rising fuel and energy costs across the forthcoming months.
We have witnessed a substantial number of mortgage products, some that previously offered sub 4% rates, now being withdrawn, leaving consumers with fewer choices and generally a tighter eligibility criteria to achieve, something that has the potential to impact first-time buyers especially.”
Commenting on rental prices, Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark:
“Rents have risen year on year, and across many regions of the UK, there remains a chronic imbalance between supply and demand in the private rented sector, with far too few homes available to meet tenant need. Affordability pressures persist, and Propertymark data shows that 17% of member agents have reported an increase in rental costs over this period.
The operating environment for landlords continues to evolve at pace, with an expanding legislative burden and growing expectations around environmental compliance creating significant challenges.
Renting remains most prevalent among those aged 25 to 34, a group that is increasingly facing barriers to saving for homeownership, further highlighting the long-term pressures within the sector.”
Karen Noye, mortgage expert at Quilter:
“The latest UK House Price Index shows annual house price growth of around 1.3% in January, with average prices near £268,000, but the crucial point is that all of this data predates the sharp repricing in mortgage markets triggered by the outbreak of the war. Monthly momentum had already slipped, with prices falling 0.3% between December and January, suggesting the market was softening even before lenders were forced to rebase fixed-rate products in response to the geopolitical shock this March.
January’s dataset captures a period shaped by falling inflation expectations and gradually improving affordability, not the jump seen in funding costs since the start of the war, which has pushed mortgage rates higher and weighed on buyer confidence. The headline figures, therefore provide a backwards-looking snapshot of a market that has already shifted materially.
As rate volatility feeds through to mortgage offers and stress tests, the pressure on already stretched first‑time buyers is likely to intensify. At the same time, if inflation begins to rise again while wage growth fails to keep pace, household savings will be squeezed for a second time. That combination risks eroding the slight affordability gains seen earlier in the winter and could further dampen demand.
The modest annual gains recorded in January tell us very little about the trajectory from here. The sharper reality will only begin to show up in the data once the next releases capture the immediate impact of higher borrowing costs, weaker sentiment and tighter household budgets.”
Chris Storey, Chief Commercial Officer, Atom bank:
“Between the chaotic rate of change in the mortgage market and continued house price volatility, it’s not easy for would-be homebuyers at the moment.
While the headline rate of house price growth may be down, the reality is that there is real variance between different types of property. Rightmove last week reported the price gap between typical first-time buyer properties and larger homes has reached a record high, making it far harder for homeowners to move up the ladder. Meanwhile, potential first-time buyers face a real battle to save a decent deposit, given the continued cost-of-living pressures putting every penny under pressure.
Throw in the volatile mortgage market, where lenders are being forced to reprice and adapt their ranges due to the impacts of geopolitical events, and buyers face an even more stressful experience than usual.
For brokers and borrowers, now is the time to prioritise working with lenders who can move quickly, providing reassurance and easing some of that stress. In such fast-moving, volatile times, brokers have a crucial role to play in bringing some calm, and the right partnerships can help them do just that.”
Alex Upton, Managing Director, Specialist Mortgages & Bridging Finance, Hampshire Trust Bank:
“Landlords are navigating a rental market where supply remains constrained, and confidence is under pressure. Demand continues to outstrip available stock in many areas, but the more meaningful shift is in how investors are responding to a more complex and less predictable operating environment.
We are starting to see lenders become more selective, and in some cases step back from parts of the market. That matters. When funding options narrow at the same time as regulatory and cost pressures increase, it creates a more challenging landscape for brokers and landlords to operate within.
Landlord behaviour is adjusting accordingly. Expansion is no longer the default. Many are reassessing exposure, refining portfolios and prioritising assets that offer higher and more reliable income. More experienced investors are not stepping away, but they are being far more deliberate in how they allocate capital and structure their portfolios.
These conditions are reshaping funding demand. Landlords are not simply refinancing; they are restructuring. That means releasing capital selectively, consolidating borrowing and repositioning portfolios to reflect tighter margins and higher compliance expectations. It requires lenders who can assess cases on their merits, take a long-term view and structure funding around how portfolios operate in practice.
In this environment, consistency and clarity are not optional. Where funding remains accessible, decision-making is clear, and lenders continue to engage with complexity, confidence holds. Where it does not, it falls away quickly. That is where the real risk sits. Without stability, pressure in the rental market does not ease; it builds.”
Amy Reynolds, head of sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts, says:
“The property market continues to demonstrate resilience despite a backdrop of global uncertainty.
The Middle East conflict has contributed to increased caution across financial markets. Mortgage rates have already edged upwards in response, and this is naturally becoming a talking point among applicants.
We are seeing a slight softening in viewing numbers as some buyers pause to assess the situation; however, the underlying market remains robust. Serious buyers are still very much active, with second viewings continuing and sales being agreed at levels typical for this time of year. While there is greater awareness of cost, for the right property, committed buyers are continuing to move forward with confidence.”
Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, says:
“Inflation sticking at 3 per cent for another month would normally be cautiously welcomed, but this reflected a time just before the inflationary effects of the Middle East conflict started to have an impact.
Only last month, we were talking about further interest rate reductions; now the talk is about when the next rate rise will be. This is unsettling for buyers and sellers, with mortgage pricing proving to be particularly volatile. Those who need a mortgage in the next six months would be wise to seek advice and secure a rate now, in case pricing increases further.”
Lee Williams, National Sales Manager at Saffron for Intermediaries, comments:
“The latest increase in house prices is encouraging, particularly given the heightened level of global uncertainty in recent weeks. Back-to-back rises in January and February pointed to a solid start to the year and underline the market’s underlying resilience, even as external pressures continue to build. While earlier momentum was supported by improving sentiment and more active pricing from lenders, recent geopolitical developments have caused the market to pause, with some providers repricing or withdrawing products as conditions shift.”
Looking ahead, the outlook remains more measured. With expectations of further interest rate cuts now on hold, as reflected in last week’s decision to hold rates, alongside ongoing global uncertainty and a shifting policy landscape, some buyers may adopt a more cautious approach in the near term. In this environment, it remains as important as ever for borrowers to seek quality mortgage advice from a broker, particularly in a fast-moving and evolving market. Specialist lenders continue to support more complex lending requirements and, despite some products being withdrawn, their flexibility on criteria means suitable options can still be found through effective advice.”
Jason Tebb, President of OnTheMarket, comments on the January UK HPI:
“Property values continued their steady rise on an annual basis in January, with the average price £3,000 higher than a year ago. Increased confidence and activity resulted in a strong start to the year for the housing market, thanks to post-Budget clarity, although price increases are being kept in check by increased stock, more choice and continued affordability concerns.
Although a little dated, these numbers reveal wide regional disparities behind the average prices.
Values in London continue to contract, by 1.7 per cent in the 12 months to January, due to increased supply and stretched affordability in the capital, where property prices tend to be considerably higher than in other parts of the country. Inflation steady at 3 per cent for a second consecutive month in the year to February would not normally be a cause for concern, but since then, the inflationary pressures created by the Middle East conflict have removed market expectations of further base-rate cuts with suggestions of rises instead.”
Tomer Aboody, director of specialist lender MT Finance, says:
“Although the price change, whether up or down, is minimal, what really stands out from these figures is the significant reduction in sales volumes, especially in England, which is nearly 40 per cent down year-on-year.
We have seen a lack of desire from the government to help kick-start or boost the property market, and if anything, they have created even tougher conditions.
Real estate is the lifeblood of the UK economy, and until this is boosted, we will continue to see not only a stagnant property market, but also a stagnant economy.”
On UK HPI
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, says:
“Even before the start of Middle East hostilities, there was a bit of a market wobble as we emerged from the late 2025 uncertainty. Since then, we have found in our offices that worries over the direction of the economy have resulted in a reduction in the quantity of potential buyers, particularly the opportunistic sort, but not the quality.
Deals are just about hanging together with little renegotiation so far. But confidence will inevitably begin to ebb the longer the conflict persists. The ’no change’ in inflation and base rate was a welcome relief, but has already been superseded as neither covers the impact of the recent surge in energy prices. What’s happening now and likely to happen in the near future is of far more relevance to buyers and sellers.”
On ONS rental figures:
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, says:
“We are continuing to see a shortage of stock, particularly prompted by landlords selling as tenancies end, due to worries about imminent tax and regulatory issues. This lack of stock and choice for tenants is supporting higher rents.
However, over the past few weeks, we have noticed some tenant resistance to paying more, bearing in mind increasing worries about the cost of living prompted by the war in the Middle East.”
Damien Jefferies, Founder of Jefferies London, commented:
“Over the last year, uncertainty has become a consistent theme with respect to property market sentiment, but despite this, we’ve seen a continued show of resilience where house prices are concerned.
Buyers and sellers are pressing ahead, undeterred by higher mortgage rates and wider political instability and, whilst the current Iran conflict adds a further layer of uncertainty for 2026, we expect the domestic market to continue showing signs of increasing positivity.”
Verona Frankish, CEO of Yopa, commented:
“Interest rates haven’t reduced at the rate many homeowners and buyers would have hoped for, but what the current landscape is providing is stability and this is key when it comes to the health of the UK property market.
This is being reflected in the current rate of house price growth, which suggests a market that isn’t moving at the pace of previous years, but certainly isn’t in decline either.”
Director of Benham and Reeves, Marc von Grundherr, commented:
“The latest figures for January show that, whilst it may be a new year, the UK property market has remained predictably consistent.
House prices are holding firm and have continued to edge up on both an annual basis despite some month-to-month fluctuation.
This more measured rate of growth suggests a market that is building momentum on a far stronger foundation when compared to the sharp rates of inflation seen in previous years.
London has also shown one of the strongest rates of monthly growth, suggesting that whilst the market may be more subdued than the wider national picture, the tide could now be turning.”
Jonathan Hopper, CEO of Garrington Property Finders, commented:
“This January data gives a sepia-tinted snapshot of a market in transition.
It shows that after dropping 1% during 2025, average prices in London rebounded by 0.8% month-on-month in January. But it also reveals that the capital’s annual slide in prices has spread across southern England; both the South East and the South West also recorded lower average prices in January compared to the same month last year.
With regional prices continuing to rise, albeit more slowly than before, in more affordable parts of the north, the split between different property types is now impossible to ignore.
Houses are still inflating, flats are not: detached prices are up 0.7% year-on-year, semis up 2.7% per cent and terraces up 2.4%. Meanwhile, the average price paid for flats and maisonettes fell by 1.2%.
At a national level, the market is no longer being carried by momentum; it is being priced by basic economics, which caps growth and is now dragging it into negative territory in some regions.
Coupled with the war shock, this makes forecasting unusually difficult. If the conflict proves short-lived, the market may simply resume the slow normalisation captured by this January data. If it is prolonged, uncertainty over interest rates and the wider economy could extend the transitional phase, keeping buyers selective and price sensitive for longer.
For now, the immediate upshot of the uncertainty is a thinning in the number of buyers, giving strategic buyers with a long-term horizon a much clearer run, both in terms of choice and negotiating power. With stock levels set to climb even higher over Easter, we will see this swing decisively into a buyer’s market.”
