Aberdeen research suggests an increasing part of value creation is taking place pre-IPO, as SpaceX shines light on next wave of mega listings.
SpaceX’s highly anticipated initial public offering (IPO) this week has brought renewed attention to the role of private markets in accessing high-growth companies ahead of their debut on public markets, says Aberdeen Investments.
Analysis by Aberdeen Investments across a range of mega tech IPOs shows that value creation is increasingly shifting from post to pre-IPO. For earlier technology companies such as Apple, Microsoft and Amazon, the majority of value was generated after IPO, meaning public market investors captured most of the upside. Amazon, for example, delivered only around 200x from launch to IPO, but went on to create vastly more value once publicly listed.
By contrast, more recent company growth patterns show the opposite pattern: value is increasingly realised before IPO. The standout here is Airbnb, which generated an exceptional 6,800x return from launch to IPO, making it the strongest pre-IPO value creator in the group. Facebook and Google also show very high private-market multiples.
At the other end, Coinbase is the clear laggard. Despite a strong 1,905x pre-IPO multiple, it is marked by a -37% figure, indicating value destruction around or after listing.
Nalaka De Silva, Manager, abrdn Global Private Markets Fund says: “Listings such as SpaceX represents an important moment not just for the space sector, but for private markets more broadly. They highlight how innovation is being built and scaled over many years in private markets before reaching the public stage.
“Whatever the future holds for Space X, our research illustrates that the “winners” today which we looked at have in recent history generated most of their value privately, while public market entry has become a less reliable source of returns.”
Staying private for longer – how value creation has shifted from post to pre-IPO (the return you would have got expressed as a multiple – from launch to IPO)
Source: Securitize, Aberdeen, June 2026
Through its venture capital allocation, Aberdeen’s Global Private Markets Fund (GPMF) already has exposure to SpaceX, representing approximately 1.7% of the fund’s net asset value (as well as a similar indirect position in Open AI).
The listing will represent a potential milestone for the fund’s holding, while also highlighting how much value creation increasingly takes place prior to public market entry.
Space technology
While market speculation around the IPO and Space X’s potential valuation has intensified, the broader significance for investors arguably lies in what it signals: the continued maturation of the space economy and a growing pipeline of large, innovation-led businesses approaching the public markets.
“What is increasingly compelling is not just the scale of SpaceX, still responsible for over 90% of U.S. rocket launches in 2025, but the broadening of the ecosystem around it. This shift is creating a richer opportunity set beyond a single dominant player.”
Nalaka de Silva, Manager, abrdn Global Private Markets Fund
Nalaka de Silva continues: “What is increasingly compelling is not just the scale of SpaceX, still responsible for over 90% of U.S. rocket launches in 2025, but the broadening of the ecosystem around it. This shift is creating a richer opportunity set beyond a single dominant player.”
Private companies in the space race
Astranis is a strong example of a differentiated approach. Rather than pursuing large, capital-intensive satellites, it focuses on small, lower-cost geostationary assets designed to deliver targeted connectivity in underserved regions. The model is more flexible and opens markets that were previously uneconomic.
At the infrastructure layer, Apex is solving a different constraint by standardising satellite bus platforms. This enables faster, more cost-efficient deployment, reducing time to orbit and allowing customers to scale more effectively.
These are illustrative of a broader trend: as launch becomes more accessible, value is shifting upstream and downstream into infrastructure, services, and applications.
Companies shown above for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate the investment management style described herein and not as an investment recommendation or indication of future performance.
