Andy Burnham needs to move immediately to spell out the detail behind his fiscal agenda rather than let speculation drift through the summer and into the Autumn Budget, affirms the CEO of DeVere Group.
Nigel Green of deVere Group comments come as the new Prime Minister enters Downing Street having pledged to protect income tax, National Insurance and VAT for working people while leaving the door open on a wealth tax, an exit charge on departing assets, and further rises to capital gains tax, all without committing to a timeline or a firm position on any of them.
He says: “Every day this drags on without clarity is a day wealthy families and business owners are forced to plan for the worst rather than plan with confidence.
“Reports that he favours a fiscally cautious figure for Chancellor gave markets some comfort this week, but speculation about personnel is not a substitute for a clear position.
“He needs to confirm his top team and, critically, tell the country what he intends to do with wealth, capital gains and exit taxation, because every week of silence pushes more capital toward the door.”
The stakes are considerable. The UK lost an estimated 16,500 millionaires in 2025, one of the largest single-year outflows recorded anywhere in the world, and forecasts suggest that number could climb further in 2026 if uncertainty continues into the autumn.
Rival jurisdictions including the UAE, Switzerland and Italy have positioned themselves to absorb exactly the capital Britain risks losing.
Nigel Green continues: “Burnham has ruled out the tax rises that would touch ordinary voters and left himself with wealth, property and capital as his only remaining levers.
“Anyone who has followed his career already knows this. What’s missing so far is the courage to say plainly what it means in practice.
“Vague commissions and hints dropped in interviews give families and entrepreneurs nothing they can actually plan around, and that pattern needs to end now, not after the damage compounds.
“A wealth tax, an exit charge and a further hike in capital gains tax would each accelerate the departure of exactly the people Britain most needs to keep, its highest earners, its entrepreneurs and its investors.
“The evidence from France, Sweden and Britain’s own recent experience with capital gains increases makes the case that these policies could be disastrous.”
Nigel Green argues that early clarity, even unwelcome clarity, would do less damage than prolonged ambiguity.
He notes: “Business and investors can adapt to a defined policy far more easily than they can adapt to uncertainty.
“If Burnham intends to raise capital gains tax, say so and let people plan. If he intends to pursue a wealth tax, say so and accept the consequences.
“He cannot leave every option theoretically live for months while capital quietly relocates in response to the mere possibility, and every week he tries, Britain pays for it.”
He adds: “His own allies openly admit he keeps his options open and shifts position under pressure. Voters in Greater Manchester could live with that style of leadership.
“Global investors deciding where to place billions in mobile capital can’t, and will not wait around to find out which version of Burnham turns up at the Budget, or indeed who ends up sitting beside him at the Treasury.”
Nigel Green concludes: “Burnham has an opportunity in his first weeks in office to end the guessing game that has already unsettled wealth creators for months.
“Confirming his Chancellor and setting out his fiscal intentions now, however difficult, would do more to stabilise confidence in Britain than any number of speculative headlines.
“Every week he delays only deepens an exodus his government will eventually be forced to explain, and by then the choice may no longer be his to make.”
