The impact of today’s Budget measures on the economy will be significant. Markets will be under much scrutiny in the coming hours and days as analysis into what the budget changes mean for the UK economy, for growth prospects and for the all important bond markets, especially given the unfortunate OBR report leak even before the Chancellor had got to her feet.
Experts have been sharing their reaction to today’s budget news as follows with their analysis on what they mean for advisers and their clients – as well as the economy and markets.
You can check out all the budget analysis, news and views on all measures relevant to advisers here on our dedicated Autumn Budget category
Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter said: “This has already become one of the most memorable Budget statements to date as a result of the early leak of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecasts, rather than necessarily the measures brought about by the Chancellor. It has given markets an early look at the Budget measures and for now the response is fairly muted. An initial fall in bond yields has quickly reversed, but as we saw last year the true impact is not necessarily felt for days or even weeks later.
“While Rachel Reeves attempts to spin the OBR’s forecasts, it is clear that reality is far from rhetoric. Economic growth forecasts for 2025 may have been upgraded, but productivity has been downgraded, inflation is expected to be higher and spending is going up. Indeed, borrowing is rising and only being cut towards the end of the forecast period. Compared to March’s forecast, it is estimated to be £21 billion (0.7 per cent of GDP) higher in 2025-26, but still lower by £6 billion (0.2 per cent of GDP) in 2029-30, resulting from some of the more significant tax raising measures not kicking in until 2028, bringing some added uncertainty over its revenue-raising potential.
“Furthermore, the government has doubled down on welfare spending, with it now set to rise by an average of £11bn a year up from 2026 to the end of 2030. This makes the tax rises announced today permanent at least for length of the Labour government, not a temporary measure necessary to fill any fiscal holes or build up buffers. For a government looking for economic growth, this is not necessarily the best approach to achieving it.
“There is some welcome good news that inflation will be helped by measures on energy bills, dampening it by just over 0.4% next year and theoretically raising the potential of more significant interest rate cuts. But it is worth noting that the OBR have increased their forecasts for CPI since March due to existing price pressures, which threatens to negate the impact of this measure. However, moving to a single assessment of the fiscal rules per year is a positive development and should help remove some of the daft tweaking of fiscal policy based on what a forecast says.
“For now, however, Reeves and this government continue to hope that growth somehow returns and inflation falls. The trouble is that many of the measures announced by Reeves today are untested, such as a mansion tax. Distortions and unexpected behaviour changes will occur and as such make some of these forecasts at risk of further cuts.”
John Stopford, Head of Managed Income at Ninety One, comments on the UK Autumn Budget: “The budget looks less Gilt friendly at first glance than expected. The OBR has assumed higher nominal GDP due to stickier near-term inflation, which boosts the tax take and leaves a smaller reduction from the March forecast in the Chancellor’s headroom than anticipated. Borrowing is higher through most of the forecast period before delivering a larger current surplus in the final year, with spending increases front loaded and taxes backloaded. So while the headline figures are more positive, the detail and route by which they are expected to be met looks less convincing.”
Laurence Booth, head of capital markets at CMC Markets, reacts to the measures announced: “Despite many of the concerns anticipated by both the markets and the public alike, today’s Budget announcement was more positive than some had feared.
“Tax changes were inevitable due to the current economic situation, but the choices made by the Chancellor represent a more positive outcome than had been predicted. They walk a fine line between giving the Treasury more financial headroom to operate, while limiting the tax burden on businesses and the public.
“In light of the announcement, we are seeing that the markets are reacting somewhat positively to the Budget.”
Liam O’Donnell, a fixed income manager at Artemis, said: “The big shock for me is that most of the tax raising/fiscal consolidation is heavily backloaded – starting in 2028/29. It just smacks a bit of extend and pretend. Spending is slightly higher near term and the narrative that the Bank of England might have to come to the rescue via more interest rate cuts because higher taxes crush growth has vanished, in my view. Today I think we’re seeing a bit of a relief rally from changes from the DMO remit (they’ve cancelled six auctions and left the market with only a sliver of longs supply via syndication). But ultimately, I don’t think this is positive for the gilt market because what we got – in addition to the early release farce from the OBR – was another episode from Labour where they deliver an unpopular budget without either meaningful spending reductions or meaningful tax increases in the near term. Their continued ability to extract political loss from what seemed like a winning position is impressive.”
Daniela Hathorn, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com said: “Rachel Reeves’ 2025 Budget has so far centred on a strategy of plugging the fiscal gap through significant tax increases while simultaneously committing to long-term public investment. A key feature is the freezing of personal income-tax thresholds for another three years, a move that effectively raises taxes over time as wage growth pulls more people into higher bands. Additional revenue-raising measures target dividends, high-value property, gambling, and other sectors, while spending plans emphasise investment in health, education, infrastructure, defence and technology.
“This mix of higher taxes and expanded public investment has created a mixed response in financial markets: gilts have risen, pushing yields lower, and the pound has strengthened against its major peers in a sign that investor concerns about fiscal credibility may have been tempered slightly. The FTSE 100 remains stable within the wider uptrend that has taken over global equities in the last few days.
“That said, sentiment is fragile, with investors weighing the risk that back-loaded tax revenue, elevated borrowing costs, and uncertain growth prospects could make the fiscal plan difficult to sustain. While certain sectors poised to benefit from planned public investment have reacted more positively, overall market behaviour reflects caution and a focus on the government’s ability to deliver credible long-term fiscal discipline.”
Caroline Shaw, multi asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International comments on today’s UK budget said: “Today’s ‘bits and pieces’ budget doesn’t materially change the UK macro outlook. The restoration of more fiscal headroom should be enough to placate the bond markets for now. The most consequential measures were those aimed at reducing UK inflation, such as the freeze in rail fares. These were designed to give the Bank of England (BoE) as much room to cut interest rates next year as possible, potentially shaving 0.3-0.4 percentage points off inflation.
“With inflation continuing to ease, in addition to signals that the labour market is softening, we expect the BoE to resume rate cuts. This should be supportive for Gilts, an area where fundamentals are already improving, although we are cautious on government bonds overall due to the impact of tariffs on inflation and fiscal issues. Sterling, by contrast, faces a tougher backdrop with a combination of policy uncertainty and the prospect of lower rates.
“The outlook for UK equities is less clear cut. Earnings remain fairly uninspiring, and the announcements in today’s budget aren’t enough to improve growth meaningfully. That said, the UK market still trades at a discount, balance sheets are robust, and buyback prospects are decent, while any sterling weakness should provide support for multinational large caps. Given the challenging landscape of policy adjustments and fiscal pressures, we prefer to gain UK equity exposure through active management to take advantage of stock selection opportunities and dispersion between sectors. Overall, we believe the most compelling opportunities in equity markets are found elsewhere, particularly in emerging markets such as China and India.”
Laura Foll, co-manager of the Lowland and Law Debenture investment trusts said: “There will be some people asking if the budget was worth all the stress it caused beforehand. I was hoping for a budget that would be non-inflationary, non-distortionary and that would be credible (in other words would raise what it is forecast to raise, within a sensible time frame). We got the promised ‘smorgasbord’ of tax rises, covering salary sacrifice, electric car mileage, gambling and more. The Chancellor has sensibly increased her budget headroom, and it doesn’t look to be inflationary, but the income is back-end loaded to the end of the decade, which introduces an element of risk. On the plus side, we will now only have to go through this once a year. Perhaps pre-Budget anxiety is unavoidable, but my Christmas wish for next year is a Budget not in the middle of peak trading season for much of the UK economy.”
Tom Stevenson, Investment Director at Fidelity International, comments: “Alongside voters, MPs and the business community, financial markets formed a fourth key audience for today’s Budget. With every one percentage point shift in the cost of borrowing worth around £17bn to the government, keeping the so-called bond vigilantes on board today was a key focus.
“Investors were looking for reassurance today – that the Chancellor had rebuilt a prudent level of fiscal headroom, that tax rises would be balanced by some spending restraint, and that the government would not need to borrow significantly more. Inflation expectations were a further consideration. Investors were watching closely for any measures that might add to inflation pressures, potentially complicating the Bank of England’s ability to reduce interest rates. Above all the markets wanted a sense that the UK’s animal spirits can reawaken.
“During the speech, the pound strengthened slightly to $1.32, gilt yields – which had initially fallen sharply after the early publication of the OBR report – settled back to around where they began the day, and then eased again as the measures were digested. The FTSE 100 rose modestly, with the more domestically focused FTSE 250 up around one percent.
“All in all, the Chancellor can feel relieved about the market reaction to her second Budget. The steadiness of the market response suggests that investors were reassured by the overall fiscal approach.”
W1M’s James Carter, a fund manager overseeing Fixed Income investment, has shared his reaction to Chancellor Reeves’ announcement saying: “We can be cautiously optimistic about the measures announced by the Chancellor of the Exchequer today. The markets have initially reacted positively, with sterling moving higher and Gilt yields settling 3-4bps lower at most maturities after a period of volatile trading upon the unprecedented leaked release of the Budget by the OBR. Markets will cheer the additional tax revenues through the well-flagged tax rises, which have led to an improved fiscal headroom of £22bn to the balanced budget rule, above the upper end of the expected £15-20bn range. However, optimism is somewhat tempered by the back-loaded nature of the measures – with borrowing requirements only falling in the latter years of the forecast, raising the chances of disappointment further down the road.
“While the OBR has increased its growth forecast to 1.5 pc from 1pc for this year, we cannot ignore their downgraded forecasts for the following years, which leaves real GDP growth between 2026-2029 0.3 pc a year lower than the budget watchdog expected in March due to a weaker outlook on productivity gains. Given that the UK’s public finances were already in better shape than many of its peers, the Chancellor will be hoping that inflation starts to decline measurably over time and a virtuous cycle takes hold, with rate cuts more likely, Gilt yields declining, and these growth projections adjusted upwards against a more stimulative monetary policy backdrop.”
Silvia Rindone, EY UK&I Retail Lead, comments on retail sector measures announced in today’s Autumn Statement saying: “Today’s Budget announcement introduced measures that will impact the retail landscape and influence consumer behaviour for years to come. The proposed tiered business rates system offers welcome relief for smaller retailers, helping to ease cost pressures at a time when margins are tight. However, the additional burden placed on larger operators could lead to more expensive food bills for consumers – further challenging high street vitality and consumer choice.
“Consumer confidence has deteriorated sharply in the last 12 months, and persistent inflationary pressures and rising living costs mean sentiment has remained fragile.
“Closing the import duty loophole for small parcels is a positive step towards fairer competition, but it could also push up online prices, prompting consumers to reassess buying habits. For premium retailers, concerns will centre on whether higher taxes erode the spending power of their core customer base.
“While some measures will level the playing field for domestic retailers, the cumulative effect of tax changes and cost adjustments could temper spending, particularly in non-essential categories. Retailers will need to adapt quickly, prioritising value-driven propositions and omnichannel strategies to maintain engagement in an environment where affordability and trust will drive purchasing decisions.”
Commenting on today’s Autumn Budget, William Marshall, Chief Investment Officer, Hymans Robertson Investment Services (HRIS) says: “Investors may have been a bit caught off guard by the early leak of the OBR’s report but, so far, the markets have digested the Budget reasonably well. Investors will gain confidence with the increased £22bn headroom, over double the previous figure, albeit still lower than the historical average. Partly this is due to the OBR’s growth downgrade not being as bad as expected. Spending is up, but borrowing is still forecast to fall by the end of the parliament.
“There will be doubts however, around the credibility of tax revenues and the back-loaded nature of some of them. For example, the increased NI contribution on salary sacrifice pension contributions will not be introduced until 2029. Some may doubt whether it will even come in. Freezing of income tax bands can generate a lot of revenue but the actual outcome is highly dependent on inflation and earnings growth.
Overall, the government will likely take the initial gilt market reaction as a vote of confidence. After an initial period of slight volatility, gilt yields were little changed in the immediate aftermath of the Chancellor’s speech. The UK equity market in general was up slightly, but certain sectors were impacted more. While banking shares rallied, after being spared an increase to the banking levy, the increased gambling tax hurt bookmaker shares.”
Finn Houlihan, Managing Director at Independent Financial Advisory firm, AAF Financial comments on the budget saying: “The Chancellor’s latest address was less of a rallying cry for growth and more of a starting gun for an exodus. By freezing allowances, slashing tax breaks, and tightening residency rules, the Government has engineered a dangerous paradox: they are desperate to fill an immediate multi-billion pound black hole, yet are seemingly actively dismantling the incentives required to generate that wealth.
“Instead of stimulating the innovation and productivity needed to revive the economy, these decisions offer zero clarity and dangerously low motivation for entrepreneurs and investors to stay put. The government is hunting for immediate liquidity, but their discouraging words are simply shrinking the tax base they intend to harvest. People are already voting with their feet. Over the last 12 months, enquiries from clients seeking to leave the UK have hit record highs for us, driven by a desire to escape a stifling fiscal environment for dynamic hubs like Dubai, Portugal, and Ireland.
“It isn’t just the wealthy using the new non-dom changes to exit. We are witnessing a massive increase in enquiries from ambitious young professionals and teachers seeking higher pay and lower taxes
abroad because they want to be able to save money, something the UK regime makes incresingly impossible to do.
“When British schools and firms are prioritizing international expansion over domestic growth, and the regulatory environment makes it more appealing to set up in Cyprus than London, it is a clear indictment that the UK is becoming uncompetitive.
“Ultimately, these measures fail to solve the professed problem of immediate funding because they rely on a captive audience that no longer exists. By targeting pensions and savings, the Government is discouraging investment in UK companies exactly when it is needed most. This approach ignores the unintended consequences of capital flight. You cannot tax wealth that has already left the building.
“We are looking at a policy framework that doesn’t just fail to fix the present but, rather, actively mortgages the future by pushing capital, talent, and stability offshore.”
Matthew Amis, Investment Director – Rates Management at Aberdeen Investments, comments on gilt market reaction to the Budget said: “This was never going to be a budget for growth or to release animal spirits, this was a budget to attempt to build credibility. Credibility in the gilt market and credibility within the Labour party. Is it the credibility builder we were looking for? No, but is this a budget to cause a gilt market storm? Again no.
“The fiscal headroom increase is welcome, but the fiscal consolidation is back-loaded. This is not a budget that finally faces up to the somewhat fraught fiscal situation the UK finds itself in. But unlike in recent years, it doesn’t materially make it worse.
“The inflation busting measures again are welcome, but will this mean the Bank of England materially accelerate interest rate cuts? Probably not.
“In terms of gilt supply, no real increase, which in itself is a positive story. “The limited gilt market reaction so far is probably fair. We move on.”
David Zahn, Head of European Fixed Income, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, provides his view post the Autumn Budget saying: “Today’s UK Budget announcement from the Chancellor sees an increase in spending and borrowing through 2028. However, most of the planned tax rises do not kick in until 2029 and beyond. This approach effectively kicks the can down the road until the next parliamentary election to deal with the spending gap. The probability that those tax changes are delivered seems low given it will be a new parliament, potentially with a different majority party.
“Meanwhile, the OBR’s revised outlook — lower growth post-2025 and higher inflation — should lead Gilts to see higher yields in the long end of the curve.”
Andrew Jones, Portfolio Manager on the Global Equity Income Team at Janus Henderson Investors, said: “There were no significant negative surprises, given the tax increases already rumoured. Bonds and equity markets have taken a positive initial view. The Chancellor has walked a narrow path by raising taxes in a way that does not add to inflation. This has created scope for the Bank of England to cut interest rates further, created a larger fiscal buffer to remain within her fiscal rules over the forecast period and increased spending in some select areas.”
Guy Foster, Chief Strategist, RBC Brewin Dolphin. “There are always political and economic stakeholders to be managed when releasing a budget. The latter, including the OBR and the financial markets, seem to have been appeased but it typically takes longer to assess the former. It was well known that the Chancellor would need to cut spending or raise taxes because changes to the OBR’s growth forecasts meant that she was no longer on track to meet her fiscal rules. In response, she has undertaken to increase borrowing in the near term, whilst raising the tax burden later.
“The bulk of the delayed pain will come from keeping tax thresholds frozen allowing more taxpayers to drift into higher tax brackets as their wages rise. In addition to this a smorgasbord of additional measures have avoided the need to break a manifesto commitment by raising one of the big taxes such as income tax.
“Investors had been braced for worse and seem to be breathing a sigh of relief in the hours after the release of the budget details. Bond yields which ultimately determine the cost of new borrowing for the government have fallen slightly. The pound is up and there is not meaningful change in the outlook for interest rates.”
This could come back to haunt the gilt market believes Guillermo Felices, global investment strategist for fixed income at PGIM as he comments: “This Budget was all about regaining confidence of both the market and Labour MPs, and it is doing the minimum to achieve that. The market reaction is consistent with some confidence being restored, with gilts rallying and sterling stronger versus the US dollar and euro.
“Overall, the Government has increased headroom by £22 billion (versus the £15 billion expected), introduced measures that will help inflation to fall further, and reduced cash requirements a bit, meaning that UK government debt issuance numbers will be more reasonable. This should pave the way for the Bank of England to cut rates, which is positive for gilts.
“The key remaining uncertainties are the fact that the tax increases are backloaded so revenues will only be realised in the future; growth assumptions were trimmed lower, though are still very optimistic hovering at around 1.5% after 2027; and politically, I am not sure the Government has done enough, especially after freezing income tax thresholds. These uncertainties could easily come back to haunt the gilts market in the next few months.”
Scott Gardner, investment strategist at J.P. Morgan Personal Investing said: “By the time the Chancellor sat down after delivering her second Budget statement, markets had had nearly two hours to digest the leaked forecasts and projections for the nation’s finances.
“Despite some volatility in trading, investors have broadly reacted positively to the Budget, maintaining momentum from this morning’s trading. Closely-watched Gilts have moved in the right direction, with the 30-year and 10-year gilts down 7bps and 5bps, respectively, buoyed by increased fiscal headroom. While equity markets initially whipsawed in response to the leak from the Office for Budget Responsibility, they have since made up ground with the FTSE 100 rising 0.4% after the leak and the more representative index of UK plc, the FTSE 250, gaining 0.3% in trading. Sterling also edged higher as the Chancellor reaffirmed the Government’s commitment to fiscal restraint. “Piecing this all together, the Treasury should be satisfied with the market reaction so far, given the breadth of changes announced and speculation since the summer.”
Commenting on the Autumn Budget on 26 November 2025, Dominic Tayler, UK Managing Director at Oakglen Wealth, argues that the government risks penalising growth saying: “The Chancellor talked about growth today but has in fact penalised growth by restricting investment into pensions and through dividend tax increases for savers.
“The package of measures for enterprise was more encouraging, but efforts to dilute punitive policy around IHT relief on agricultural and business property only amount to a tinkering around the edges and need to have gone further, as the short-term damage for UK PLC here has already been done.”
Jerome Pottier, EMEA Chief Revenue Officer, Datasite said: “Over the past year, M&A activity has proceeded cautiously amid economic and political uncertainty. While the business landscape remains challenging both domestically and cross-border, dealmakers can now look toward 2026 with renewed confidence, now that the Autumn Budget has been delivered.
“Rising employment costs could present another headwind, particularly for labour intensive sectors such as hospitality and healthcare, where margins play a critical role in valuation. Higher cost bases translate to compressed margins, softer pricing, and intensified buyer scrutiny. To remain competitive in upcoming deal processes, operators must demonstrate operational efficiency through automation, streamlined processes, and flexible workforce models that protect margins and support compelling valuation narratives.
“As the market recalibrates and deal flow begins to recover, those who move decisively, structure transactions intelligently, and stay ahead of the tax curve will be best positioned to capitalise on emerging opportunities.”
Following the Chancellor’s announcement to unleash talent and opportunity for young people, ensuring all young people aged 16-24 years old have access to the support they need to earn or learn, Suzanna Kemal, Head of HR at Reward Gateway|Edenred, comments: “It’s great to see the Chancellor announcing £820 million investment in skills among young people – and therefore jobs. This is a vital step to ensure that the next generation has access to meaningful work opportunities, skills development, and career prospects. By investing in our youth, we can help prevent a workless generation and reduce the risk of talent leaving the country in search of better-paid jobs abroad. Supporting young people today is an investment in the future strength and prosperity of our workforce and a solid foundation for long-term economic growth.”
Damien Druce, chief operating officer at Black & White Bridging, said: “The Budget was a colossal missed opportunity. We need to reform of our welfare system and tackle its ballooning bill. The welfare state was intended to be a safety net for people who found themselves in difficulties or to provide help for those unable to work because of disability. I was brought up on a council estate, in poverty; I’ve always strived for more based on hard work – not hand-outs. The idea that living on benefits might become a way of life for generations of workless people would have been anathema to William Beveridge, the architect of the welfare state.
“But rather than reforming welfare entitlements, Ms Reeves is scrapping the two-child benefit cap, costing the country an additional £3bn. Labour MPs have already scuppered an earlier attempt to reform Personal Independence Payments. Given the Chancellor wants to cut debt, that meant more tax – and without an increase in income tax, that in turn meant raising more money from property.
“Ms Reeves should have reduced welfare spending, saving billions, keeping taxes down and boosting growth. Sadly, that would have required vision, political will and leadership. Which is something that Ms Reeves does not appear to possess.”
Tom Kelleher, Co-Founder at Icon Solutions, comments on the omission of Fintech from the Autumn budget saying:
“It’s notable that one of the UK’s largest economic sectors – fintech and financial services, which employs 1.2 million people nationwide – was not a central focus in this year’s Budget. In March 2025, the government recognised financial services as one of eight key growth sectors in its modern Industrial Strategy and introduced measures to boost competitiveness. While the UK fintech sector has faced challenges such as decreased investment and a slowdown in IPOs, and has recently dropped from second, behind the US, to third place globally, these developments highlight the importance of continued support and innovation.
As the sector navigates rising taxes and a complex global environment, there is a valuable opportunity for policymakers to foster a stable, growth-oriented policy framework. Such an environment would help ensure that UK fintech remains globally competitive and continues to drive economic growth. With the right consistency and confidence from government, Britain’s fintech sector can build on its strengths and seize future opportunities.”
Todd Clyde, CEO at Token.io said: “The Chancellor’s Budget places even more pressure on UK businesses already grappling with rising costs. Retail sales fell 1.1 per cent in October, a sharp reversal from the 0.7 per cent rise the month before, marking a “disappointing” start to the crucial festive trading period. At the same time, consumer confidence has plunged to historic lows according to the latest GfK survey. Against this backdrop, every additional tax burden pushes retailers to scrutinise their operational costs more aggressively, looking at efficiencies that don’t compromise growth. One of the simplest and fastest wins, that is often overlooked, is payments.
“Across Europe, most retailers still depend on traditional payment methods to process payments online and in stores. Both UK and EU regulators, along with industry leaders, increasingly agree that giving businesses and consumers a choice of payment methods to meet their needs must be a priority. Shifting away from traditional payment methods means cheaper payments, and improved cash flows through near-instant settlement. “While the Government did outline its ambition for account-to-account payments to be developed as a ubiquitous payment method in its National Payments Vision, without political emphasis, even this detailed plan risks becoming another well-intentioned document that gathers dust, when what the market needs now is urgency and execution. If this Budget is genuinely about economic resilience, then payments modernisation must be part of the UK’s economic response.”
Comment from Pat Bermingham, CEO at Adflex:
“UK firms today will continue to question the outlook for growth. The Chancellor has not revealed a clear plan to accelerate the UK’s digital transformation, which risks an estimated £55bn of working capital remaining locked up in analogue processes. The Chancellor also failed to take the opportunity to make the Fair Payment Code mandatory, which would have helped consign late payments to history, prevent more businesses closing, and promote healthier cashflow across the British economy.”
