Mortgage and property experts have responded to the latest HMRC property transaction data, highlighting the continued impact of stamp duty changes, affordability constraints and shifting borrower behaviour across the housing market.
In response to the HMRC property transactions data published today, Nick Leeming, Chairman of Jackson-Stops, comments:
“Today’s HMRC figures point to a rebound in housing transactions in April 2026, although the rise needs to be viewed in the context of a highly distorted comparison period last year. Activity in April 2025 was unusually subdued after many buyers pulled purchases forward into March to complete ahead of stamp duty changes.
“The figures are another reminder of the extent to which stamp duty continues to drive transaction timing and market behaviour, often obscuring underlying levels of demand. Our research suggests that removing stamp duty land tax for downsizers alone could unlock as many as 500,000 additional homes to market within a year, improving liquidity and easing pressure across the wider housing chain.
More broadly, today’s data reflects a market that remains active, but increasingly value-driven. Buyers are more price-sensitive than they were a year ago, and activity is most resilient where sellers price realistically and align with current market expectations.”
Ryan McGrath, Director of Second Charge Mortgages at Pepper Money, comments:
“A year-on-year decline in April was always likely and should be viewed in the context of an unusually distorted comparison. March 2025 was exceptionally strong as buyers rushed to complete ahead of the stamp duty threshold changes, and it’s likely some transactions that would ordinarily have completed in April were also pulled forward into March.
That makes direct year-on-year comparisons more difficult to interpret than usual. The more meaningful signal is in the month-on-month trend, which suggests the market is proving relatively resilient and activity levels are holding broadly steady.
The broader environment through April was mixed. The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% for a second consecutive meeting, with several market analysts signalling there could be rate hikes if energy prices continue to feed through to inflation.
Some lenders did begin cutting mortgage rates as market volatility eased following the ceasefire announced in early April, which will have offered a degree of relief, but the average two-year fixed deal still sits meaningfully higher than it did at the start of the year. For many homeowners, the numbers simply don’t stack up in favour of moving.
That calculation is driving sustained interest in the second charge market. Economic uncertainty, higher borrowing costs and subdued property transaction activity mean many homeowners are choosing to stay put rather than move home for additional space or different amenities. Instead, they are investing in improving their existing properties.
For borrowers locked into competitive fixed-rate mortgages, second charge lending provides a practical way to fund those improvements or consolidate debt without disturbing their existing rate.”
Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, says:
“The war in the Middle East is leading to higher inflation and weaker growth, which is bound to impact housing market activity, although these figures show transaction numbers dipped by a relatively small number month-on-month.
While the Bank of England is expected to hold base rate again next month, mortgage lenders continue to trim their rates in light of improving funding condition, with. Barclays the latest major lender to lower rates on a range of products.
However, Swap rate volatility suggests borrowers should not take such reductions for granted, as the situation can quickly change on the back of wider geopolitical events. Borrowers should secure a rate at the earliest opportunity for peace of mind, and can always switch to a cheaper rate when they complete if pricing has fallen by that time.”
Hamza Behzad, Business Development Director at Finova says:
“In spite of rising geopolitical tensions and volatile swap rates, the UK housing market has kept its footing. While the traditional spring bounce may not have reached the heights of previous years, the market is steady. Rightmove’s latest figures suggest first-time buyer demand is the most resilient of any single group, and the number of sales agreed for April to date are only 3% behind last year’s volumes.
It is still too early to say how the Iran war will affect the UK housing market over the long-term. But some factors are easier to predict. Inflation growth has been low at 2.8%, but it is only likely to go up in the next few months. But on the other hand, the Renters’ Rights Act may encourage many landlords to speed up their exit plans, releasing new properties into the market and creating more choice for buyers. The picture is complicated, but the UK housing market has a track record of standing up to economic turbulence.”
Richard Pike, sales and marketing director at Phoebus Software, in reaction to this morning’s latest transaction data from HMRC:
“Today’s transaction data reflects decisions made earlier in the year when market activity was stronger and before the impact of the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.
However, while these figures show that buyer demand has fallen, the underlying market remains resilient. There are early signs that affordability pressures are beginning to ease as economic conditions stabilise, which should help support a gradual pickup in activity as we move into the summer months.
That said, the outlook remains finely balanced. Lenders will need to stay alert to emerging risks, ensuring they have robust servicing and monitoring capabilities in place to identify signs of stress early and support customers effectively if arrears begin to rise.”
Tomer Aboody, director of specialist lender MT Finance, says:
“Market conditions are tough, with lack of affordability the overriding concern for many, particularly first-time buyers and those trying to purchase in the more expensive parts of the country such as London and the southeast.
A year ago, buyers were coming to terms with the removal of the stamp duty concession and the increased cost of this, with transactions plummeting as purchases were brought forward to take advantage of the concession. This demonstrates how important government action can be in stimulating housing market activity.
Although mortgage rates are higher than this time last year, surprisingly, the sales market hasn’t been impacted that much, as needs-based buyers still have to move and are taking advantage of higher leveraged deals in order to buy.”
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, says:
“House price surveys are always useful, but transaction numbers are a much better barometer of housing market health as buyers and sellers decide to proceed. These figures are particularly interesting as they cover the period from the beginning of the Iran war and confirm many were nervous about the outcome, bearing in mind the economic uncertainty prevailing at the time.
“Despite those concerns persisting, and the choice of property increasing, most sales are going ahead, though often painfully slowly and more vulnerable to renegotiation as buyers try to take advantage of their bargaining power.”
Andrew Lloyd, Managing Director at property data firm, Search Acumen, said:
“Today’s transaction data reveals the extent of the challenges facing not only the UK property market, but our wider economy. Any thought that we were already past the worst of it has proven misplaced.
Given the greater vulnerability of the residential property market, where hesitation on the part of one buyer and seller can snap a much longer chain of transactions, it is no great surprise to see a dip in residential transactions in the face of substantial house price uncertainty. As the UK bakes under a summer sun, we have had no real spring bounce to talk of.
What’s ahead for the property market is likely a flattening of transaction volumes, balancing the underlying market swings of supply and demand that keep it steady, against a trend of deals falling out of bed as prices and affordability remain unclear. Data might start to show a spike in smaller landlords continuing to sell up after the combination of tax and regulatory shocks following the Renters Rights Act. Consequently, we’re likely to see more corporate landlords taking their place.
The commercial property market has proven equally exposed to the structural challenges it is facing up to. Today’s dip in monthly transactions points to choppy waters ahead for market confidence and some delayed deals. Sentiment and demand have been improving but remain relatively muted, especially outside prime assets.
However, investors in this market do have the ability to watch and wait for the right opportunities in a way that home movers can’t, creating a natural guard against some of the sharper swings that can emerge in residential transaction data.
There are some notable bright spots, too. Demand for data centres is clearly not going anywhere, but it is no Atlas carrying the weight of the market on its shoulders alone. Interest rates remain a key market driver. The possibility of further rate rises may prompt some buyers to speed up their timelines in the coming months, as the hostility in the Gulf continues to weigh heavily on markets.
If it was possible to meaningfully move faster, we may well have seen even more transactions over the last month to beat any potential interest rate hikes that could be coming our way. But sticky markets mean more deals are falling out of bed – we know more than half of residential property transactions in the UK fall through after an offer has been accepted.
This is not just heartache for movers, but significantly economically damaging as the UK paddles furiously against broader headwinds. We are watching AI investment boom, so it makes sense that the use of technology and data standardisation across the property transaction chain must become the norm if we want to reduce risk and accelerate growth. Otherwise, we can expect to see this engine continue to cough and splutter more often than it should.”
Jason Tebb, President of OnTheMarket, comments on HMRC residential property transactions (April data):
“The slight dip in transaction numbers month-on month suggests consistent resilience from the housing market in the face of economic and political uncertainty.
Rather than stepping back and delaying decisions, buyers and sellers are mostly adapting to change and continuing to progress with their transactions.
The steady interest rate environment, with the Bank of England holding rates at recent meetings, suggests a welcome calm and considered approach while inflation is monitored. At the same time, lenders continue to trim their mortgage pricing, which is helping ease affordability and is particularly welcome as the cost of living remains high.
Sellers have plenty of choice with more stock coming to the market, which is putting them in a strong negotiating position. This is helping keep property prices in check, which should also assist in improving transaction numbers.”
Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, comments:
“While it is disappointing to see the volume of non-seasonally adjusted housing transactions display negativity month-on-month, when viewing the wider picture year-on-year, they show a return to more expected numbers, all following changes to thresholds to Stamp Duty at the start of April 2025.
Sentiment within the housing sector remains a central indicator of economic health. With global unease continuing to add potential unforeseen pressures for many people, it is important to apply a sense of caution regarding affordability over the coming weeks and months.
We have recently witnessed Ofgem raise the energy price cap by 13%, effective from July. This, coupled with what is a generally changeable direction for both inflation and base rate, could add up to producing a challenging period ahead.”
Melanie Spencer, growth director at Target Group, said:
“Despite being up on the previous year, April saw the end to the momentum that had been quietly building in spite of the all the recent disruption. As mortgage pricing shifted, so did sentiment among buyers as prospective purchasers fell away and left those that need to move.
Today, though, we wake up to news of rate cuts across the market, including from some of the big boys – reacting to recent easing of swap rates and the view that a base rate hike is now less likely. There’s an argument to say that there is still some margin to work with and depending on competition and where lenders are against target, we could see more movement.
As advisers encourage clients to move quickly and capture these deals in a rapidly changing market, lenders need to make sure they are fully prepared and can withstand any extra demand. As the market landscape continues to shift at pace, efficient, scalable and tech-enabled processes become absolutely critical.”
Ian Futcher, financial planner at Quilter:
“The UK housing market has been surprisingly resilient, but cracks are slowly beginning to show as ongoing geopolitical uncertainty weighs on activity. Residential property transactions came in at 101,030 in April 2026, down 3% on the previous month.
These figures are a lagging indicator of market health, as completions typically take several months from offer to finalisation. As a result, much of this data reflects decisions made before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict and the subsequent rise in mortgage rates, meaning the full impact of recent events is yet to feed through.
While the Bank of England chose to hold rates at its most recent meeting, whether it can maintain that position will depend on how heavily and for how long the conflict continues to weigh on the wider economy.
Mortgage rates remain elevated, despite easing slightly from recent peaks, and this is already feeding through into affordability constraints for buyers. Until there is clearer progress towards resolving the conflict, we can expect demand and overall activity to remain subdued.
“Meanwhile, on an annual basis there has been a considerable uplift, with transactions 53% higher in April 2026 than April 2025 when the market was heavily distorted by stamp duty changes. A rush to complete transactions ahead of those changes pulled activity forward into March 2025, leaving a much weaker April in its wake.
Without the recent rise in mortgage rates and a softer consumer backdrop, we would likely have now been seeing a more settled market, gradually adjusting to those higher transaction costs.”
Maria Harris, chair of the Open Property Data Association, reacting to April’s property transaction data:
“While transaction levels remain under pressure, the more telling issue is the pace at which the system operates. With the average completion taking around 17 weeks, the home‑moving process continues to be too slow and complex for the needs of today’s consumers.
What we are seeing is not just a cyclical slowdown, but the impact of an outdated system struggling to support a modern housing market. We need to accelerate the shift towards a more digital, data-driven home‑buying process – one that improves speed, certainty and trust for consumers.
We eagerly await the outcomes of the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) consultation, which has recognised many of these challenges. The publication of its findings is an important next step in defining how the market can be reformed.”
