The latest ONS House Price Index has revealed that UK house prices increased by 3.8% annually, highlighting the continued resilience of the housing market despite ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Experts from across the mortgage and property sector have reacted to the figures, offering their views on buyer confidence, affordability, mortgage rates and the wider outlook for the market.
Despite ongoing uncertainty, demand for housing has remained relatively robust, helping to support price growth across much of the UK. However, experts warn that affordability pressures and shifting buyer sentiment continue to shape conditions on the ground.
Ian Futcher, financial planner at Quilter:
“The latest UK House Price Index shows average UK house prices rose by 0.7% in April, taking annual growth to 3.8% and the average property value to £270,000. In England, prices rose 0.6% on the month and 3.9% over the year to £291,000.
The important development for the housing market is now what happens to interest rate expectations. Today’s inflation figures were unchanged, with CPI holding at 2.8%, while the prospect of a US-Iran peace deal has helped reduce the immediate risk of another energy-driven inflation shock. That should make it less likely that the Bank of England feels forced into raising rates at this week’s meeting.
Mortgage rates are unlikely to fall sharply overnight, but the direction of travel should improve if geopolitical pressure on energy prices continues to ease and inflation remains contained. The past few months have knocked mortgage rates off their downward path, largely because the Middle East situation reintroduced uncertainty into markets. If that risk premium fades, lenders should have more scope to edge pricing lower.
However, headline strength masks a still uneven market, with London down 2.1% annually and the South East up just 0.3%. This is the clearest example of where affordability is still doing the work. These are higher-value markets and therefore more exposed to elevated mortgage rates, which is why price growth remains weak despite firmer national figures. Until borrowing costs move meaningfully lower, a broad-based acceleration in house prices in these more expensive areas is unlikely.
For first-time buyers, though, the vicious circle continues to revolve. Higher mortgage rates constrain affordability and help cap house price growth, but once rates start to fall, demand can return quickly, and prices can pick up again. That means the goalposts can move just as buyers feel they are getting closer. Generation rent may get some relief from lower mortgage rates later this year, but a stronger housing market can swiftly absorb that benefit.”
Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, comments:
“An increase in house prices reflects continued resilience within the housing market despite wider and ongoing economic pressures. While demand remains steady, affordability continues to be a challenge for many households, particularly first-time buyers.
A well-functioning housing market relies on a balance between supply and demand, and long-term solutions are needed to improve affordability and consumer choice.
With inflation remaining unchanged at 2.8%, there is further evidence that relative stability within the economy may be starting to return. Attention will now turn to tomorrow’s Bank of England interest rate decision, which will be closely monitored by consumers and businesses alike, given its influence on borrowing costs and market confidence.”
Lee Williams, National Sales Manager at Saffron for Intermediaries comments
“As geopolitical tensions and a shifting policy landscape continue to test the market, today’s data points to a quiet resilience. With housing supply continuing to fall short of where it needs to be and with demand not wavering that imbalance is helping house prices increase. The picture does vary from region to region but the underlying story is one of a market that is holding up well.”
“Just last week the FCA proposed changes that could make it significantly easier for more people to access mortgages, giving lenders greater flexibility to look at individual circumstances rather than apply blanket restrictions. For anyone thinking about their next move this is an encouraging development and a good reason to speak to a qualified mortgage adviser for a holistic view.”
Richard Harrison, Head of Mortgages at Atom bank, comments:
“The headline rate of house price inflation is more a reflection of the impact of the end of the Stamp Duty holiday a year ago, than what’s actually happening at the moment. On the ground, the housing market is feeling the domino effect of foreign policy decisions made in the White House, with the situation in Iran cooling confidence among buyers. The conflict has fed into higher costs and higher interest rates for potential purchasers, with some opting to put their plans on hold.
That could be good news for those brave enough to take the plunge, though, with Moneyfacts data suggesting average rates are now falling, and product numbers have pushed above 7,000 for the first time since March. Savvy negotiators may be able to take advantage of a slower market.
With a peace deal apparently agreed, we may now start to see the effects of this turbulence filter out. However, it’s been yet another reminder of how global events can have a material impact on the house-buying abilities of regular people across the UK.”
Amy Reynolds, head of sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts, says:
“The mood among buyers is still very cautious. People are paying close attention to the situation in the Middle East and its impact on energy prices – there are recent signs of improvement, but it feels hesitant.
Pricing needs to reflect the market we’re actually in, not the one we were in 18 months ago. Vendors who accept that are still selling well but those who don’t are finding that their house sits on the market.”
Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, says:
“Inflation holding at 2.8 per cent is welcome, although the ongoing conflict in the Middle East means the inflationary threat has not completely rescinded.
While the Bank of England is expected to hold the base rate again this month, the weaker economy and rising unemployment hopefully remove the need to increase the base rate. This will come as a relief for borrowers already grappling with higher living costs and squeezed affordability.
Lenders continue to reduce their mortgage rates on the back of falling Swap rates, which underpin the pricing of fixed-rate mortgages. This trend should continue with inflation not running away with itself, assisting those buyers who need to press on with their plans regardless of the wider geopolitical picture.”
Tomer Aboody, director of specialist lender MT Finance, says:
“The increase in average property values over the past 12 months is all the more surprising given tough market conditions, but reflects softer values a year ago following the end of the stamp duty holiday. The reality now is that buyers are more cautious and not prepared to pay over-the-odds, particularly when they have so much choice.
Lack of affordability is the overriding concern for many, particularly first-time buyers and those purchasing in more expensive parts of the country, such as London and the southeast. Lack of encouragement from the government has fuelled hesitation in both buyers and sellers, with many pausing and taking a ‘wait and see’ approach.
With further reductions in base rate on hold for the foreseeable future, and higher stamp duty due to the lack of any concessions this year, there is little incentive to make a move unless you really have to. Despite recent reductions in mortgage rates, pricing is still higher than a year ago, so needs-based buyers who have to move are taking on higher loan-to-values in order to be able to buy.”
Jason Tebb, President of OnTheMarket, comments on April UK HPI:
“Average property values rose 3.8 per cent in the year to April, and given everything that has hit the wider economy over the past 12 months, this resilience in the market is remarkable. Increased stock, more choice and continued squeezed affordability are likely to keep prices in check for the foreseeable future, which is good news for first-time buyers in particular.
Behind the average national figures are significant regional differences. Values contracted in London by 2.1 per cent over the year, due to more stock and buyers finding it harder to raise the necessary finance to afford properties which are considerably higher than in some other parts of the country.
Lenders have been easing their mortgage rates on the back of lower Swap rates, and with inflation holding steady at 2.8 per cent in the year to May, this trend should continue. It also increases the chances of a further hold in base rate at this month’s meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee, and this steadiness should help improve confidence among buyers and sellers.”
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, says:
“These figures are always compelling as they reflect not just mortgages, but the approximately 40 per cent of cash sales.
Although covering only the early weeks of the Iran war, the data re-emphasises underlying market resilience as well as what we have seen in our offices – the determination of sellers to maintain prices where possible, despite buyer concerns about inflation and mortgage rates in particular.
On top of this, the unchanged inflation rate will add confidence that any planned increase in interest rates will now come later rather than sooner.”
Paige Tao, Economist at PwC UK, says:
“Today’s ONS data shows house prices rose 3.8% in the 12 months to April 2026, the highest annual rate since March 2025. But the headline is misleading; last April’s stamp duty changes pulled transactions forward, leaving a weak base that inflates today’s number.
Transactions fell 3% to 101,030, as buyers remain cautious about big purchases amid rising energy costs and cost-of-living concerns. Elevated mortgage rates further squeezed affordability.
But there are two counterweights. First, sellers are competing hard. Listings postponed from last winter still haven’t cleared, and landlords offloading ahead of the Renters’ Reform Bill are adding to the pile. Second, major lenders cut fixed-rate deals last week as markets settle following the initial shock of the US-Iran conflict.
With a framework agreement now in place and no evidence of second-round inflationary effects so far, mortgage pricing should ease further. That could open a real window for first-time buyers looking to step onto the ladder.
London house prices have now fallen for eleven consecutive months. Stretched affordability in the capital is meeting a structural shift: hybrid and remote working continues to reshape where people choose to live, pulling demand outward. Outer London has broadly tracked England’s average growth over the past two years, while inner London has lost ground.”
