Following the Halifax House Price Index announcement for December 2022, Newspage have collected the reaction of mortgage brokers. Here is what they had to say:
Alastair Hoyne, managing director at London-based Finanze: “We expect residential property prices to fall throughout 2023 as demand slumps due to several factors, including but not limited to, a drop in mortgage approvals and sellers being forced to settle below their asking prices. Affordability will continue to be a driving factor in the fall of residential property prices in the coming months. Across the UK we predict a -10.98% drop over the year with the largest fall in London of -15.40% over the year. Closely followed by the South East at -13.10%. We expect the North East and West to fall the least, -8.20% and -8.80% respectively.”
Samuel Mather-Holgate of Swindon-based advisory firm, Mather & Murray Financial: “These are the snowflakes that started the avalanche. People will be in no rush to buy properties at the top of the mountain in the New Year. There is plenty of room for prices to fall and I expect little activity in the market until we know where prices decide to settle and that won’t be until late Spring. For buyers who are willing to wait until then, this will be the time to bag a bargain. There will be a lot of distressed sellers needing to offload their properties as they cannot cope with the cost of living. I expect interest rates may have peaked by then. If the market could talk about its current state, “I, myself, am an absolute abyss.”
Gary Boakes, director of Salisbury-based mortgage broker, Verve Financial: “With the average house price to the average income in the UK hitting a peak of 7x last year and 11x for London, it is not a surprise that house prices are only going to go one way this year. We need house prices to slow down while the rest of the economy, and salaries, catch up as the level required to purchase a property at the moment is not sustainable.”
Graham Cox, founder of the Bristol-based broker, SelfEmployedMortgageHub.com: “Whether house prices have a soft landing or fall into the abyss is anyone’s guess. My view is that house prices could fall 15-20% this year and 25-30% peak to trough. I believe the drop will be much greater than many economists and vested interests are predicting. One difference this time around may be that lenders show more forbearance for borrowers in difficulty. Allowing homeowners to move onto interest-only for example, could mean we see fewer repossessions than in previous downturns.”
Jonathan Burridge, founding adviser at hybrid mortgage adviser, We Are Money: “There is tremendous pressure on property prices and they’re going to give, in some regions more than others. There remains huge demand though for first-time buyer and second-home properties, so they are less likely to be impacted in the short term. Rates are probably close to where they will remain for a while, so, we will see prices cool until incomes or consumer expectation changes. I don’t believe a crash is coming; more likely we will see simple stagnation which is long overdue as the low cost of borrowing has fueled the market.”
Mike Staton, director of Mansfield-based mortgage broker, Staton Mortgages: “Life consists of burning-up questions, one of which is what will happen to house prices? We have had two years of record price increases, and it’s inevitable that prices will drop, probably by around 5%. Remember, what goes up, must come down.”
