The latest Halifax House Price Index shows UK property prices rose by 0.3% in February, taking the average home value to a new high of £301,151 and pushing annual growth to 1.3%. While the figures suggest the market has started the year with steady momentum, growing geopolitical tensions and shifting interest rate expectations could complicate the outlook.
Experts from across the property and mortgage sectors have shared their reaction to the latest figures and what they could mean for the housing market in the months ahead.
Karen Noye, mortgage expert at Quilter:
“Halifax’s latest figures show that house prices in February increased 0.3%, with annual growth now at 1.3%. The average UK home is valued at a new high of £301,151. While the market has enjoyed early momentum geopolotical events may throw this into question.
The backdrop for buyers has become more complicated in just a few days. Hopes of a steadier rate environment have been disrupted by fresh instability following the war in Iran. While there will not be a sudden jump in mortgage rates, lenders may pause planned reductions, with swap rates rising sharply as geopolitical tensions push up oil prices and revive inflation concerns. This shift makes it harder for households to judge when affordability will genuinely improve.
For anyone planning to buy or remortgage, it is worth taking practical steps now. Most lenders will allow a mortgage offer to be secured up to six months ahead, which can give some protection against further volatility. Borrowers approaching the end of a fixed deal should start conversations early, as having options lined up can reduce the risk of being caught by sudden rate moves. Those looking to buy should also factor in the possibility that pricing may remain uneven for a while, so stress testing repayments at slightly higher rates is sensible. In a market driven as much by geopolitics as by domestic demand, being organised is one of the few areas where borrowers still have some control.
Although buyer interest has improved on last year, sentiment remains fragile. Global uncertainty could slow the momentum that had been emerging, particularly if markets continue to expect firmer inflation. That would keep mortgage pricing stickier than borrowers hoped, limiting any meaningful uplift in demand. Much now depends on how quickly rate expectations stabilise. If swap rates calm and lenders regain confidence, competition could return, but the outlook is highly sensitive to global events.”
Jason Tebb, President of OnTheMarket, comments on the Halifax House Price Index for February:
“Welcome post-Budget clarity, combined with a lack of any tax changes in the Spring Statement, has put the housing market on a firmer footing as buyers and sellers who put moves on hold are able to proceed with more confidence.
Six interest rate reductions in the past 19 months have been hugely important for the housing market, easing buyer affordability, encouraging activity and boosting confidence. The narrow vote at the Monetary Policy Committee’s meeting in January raised hopes that another reduction in base rate might come this month, but the rate setters may feel this needs to be pushed back for now as conflict in the Middle East creates uncertainty with regard to energy prices and inflation.”
Amy Reynolds, head of sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts, says:
“Halifax’s data reinforces what we’re seeing on the ground: prices are broadly stable, with modest growth where supply is tight and homes are priced realistically.
“This is not a market being driven by speculative price inflation, but by improved confidence and the genuine need to move as committed buyers re-enter the market. Buyers are more decisive and prepared to make strong offers to secure the right property. Activity since the start of the year has been noticeably stronger, and as we head into spring, that underlying demand is supporting prices rather than pushing them sharply higher.
The lack of measures in the form of sudden tax changes in the Spring Statement was welcome. The biggest boost to the housing market is stability, with consistency around stamp duty and mortgage policy giving buyers and sellers the confidence to plan.”
Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, says:
“Although the Spring Statement did little to upset the market in the same way as November’s Budget did, since then the conflict in the Middle East has lifted energy prices and shrunk central bank rate cut expectations. Swap rates, which underpin the pricing of fixed-rate mortgages, have edged higher amid fears that rising prices will fuel inflation. Expectations of a near-term base rate cut, perhaps as early as this month, have substantially reduced.
A number of lenders have already increased their mortgage rates to reflect higher Swaps and others are likely to follow suit in order to keep in line and protect service levels. Borrowers planning to take out a fixed-rate mortgage in the next few weeks or months may wish to secure a product now. This will give peace of mind, and if rates fall by the time you come to take out the mortgage, you should be able to switch onto a cheaper deal at that time. However, if rates have risen, you will be glad you took action when you did.”
Tony Gambrill, Regional Sales Director at Chestertons, says:
“In February, the property market was driven by first-time buyers as well as families wanting to upsize, which boosted demand for new-build homes and larger houses. Despite some lenders raising mortgage rates again, house hunters remain undeterred, which suggests a particularly busy and competitive spring market ahead.”
Daniel Austin, CEO and co-founder at ASK Partners, said:
“Today’s rise in UK house prices points to underlying resilience, but momentum remains constrained by affordability pressures and a ‘higher for longer’ interest rate backdrop. While recent rate cuts signal easing inflation, they are unlikely to transform market conditions overnight. Mortgage pricing has improved, yet buyer and developer confidence remains fragile following a Budget that offered little direct stimulus for housing.
The market is increasingly being shaped by structural rather than cyclical forces. The UK’s forecast 1.4 per cent growth rate, relative outperformance versus the eurozone, and sustained interest from Gulf and Southeast Asian capital continue to support long-term confidence. However, mainstream buyer activity remains subdued, with demand instead flowing into structurally undersupplied rental markets, particularly build-to-rent and co-living in well-connected suburban and commuter locations.
While proposed planning and affordable housing reforms may improve scheme viability at the margin, elevated construction and financing costs will continue to pressure margins in the near term. A clearer downward path for rates towards the 3.5 per cent range would help unlock stalled projects. Until then, capital is favouring resilient, income-led segments such as logistics, data centres, storage and other operational real estate, with real estate debt offering an attractive way to generate secured income while managing downside risk in a still-cautious market.”
Tom Brown, Managing Director, Real Estate at Ingenious, said:
“Today’s data underscores the resilience and continued appeal of the UK property sector. There’s clearly a significant and notable shortage of housing inventory across various price brackets and locations. Consequently, any decline in homeowner sales is likely counterbalanced by increased demand from renters and investors. This is a trend that is not going away. However, it’s crucial to recognise that the situation isn’t consistent nationwide or across different property pricing brackets. It’s helpful to delve into subsectors and regional dynamics when assessing opportunities, as a broad market view can be misleading. In the real estate sector, we’re seeing significant investment capital for assets for long-term rental. On account of their scale and buying power, these typically institutional investors face fewer disruptions than owner-occupiers or small-scale Buy-to-let investors.
At Ingenious, we continue to work closely with borrowers and investors, adapting to the dynamic market landscape and broader economic shifts, including those related to the climate crisis and changing lifestyles. We are expanding the reach of our development lending product to provide extended stabilisation terms for specialised developers in the rental sector. Furthermore, we’re introducing special lending terms for developers focused on reducing embedded carbon in their construction practices.”
Nicky Stevenson, Managing Director at Fine & Country, comments:
“The early-year momentum has carried into February, with house prices rising by 0.3% on the month, following January’s stronger increase. While this is still modest growth, it’s an encouraging sign that confidence is returning in a steady, sustainable way after the softer end to last year.
Overall, we are seeing a healthy backdrop for both buyers and sellers as we head towards the spring moving season, with activity usually picking up.
The regional split highlighted in these figures is worth taking note of. Northern Ireland and Scotland continue to lead the way, and within England, the stronger price growth is still concentrated in northern regions, while pricier southern markets remain softer. That’s a reminder that national headlines only tell part of the story, and local conditions are doing much of the heavy lifting.
Affordability is still stretched for many, but the conditions for buyers have been gradually improving, with easing interest rates and inflation. For movers, that mix of steadier pricing and improving certainty around borrowing costs should help provide more certainty.
For sellers, the opportunity is in understanding where demand is most resilient and pricing with the local market in mind. Buyers are active, but they remain value-led, and in a market like this, the right strategy is about meeting demand with accurate pricing and a good presentation of your home.”
Mary-Lou Press, President of NAEA Propertymark (National Association of Estate Agents), comments:
“The latest Halifax House Price Index confirms that average property values have remained above the £300,000 mark for the second consecutive month, reinforcing the resilience of the UK housing market. Sustained pricing at this level signals continued buyer confidence, despite affordability pressures and wider economic uncertainty.
However, while rising prices may reflect market strength, they also present clear challenges. Without meaningful support for those stepping onto the housing ladder, higher property values will inevitably push up deposit requirements and borrowing thresholds. As prices remain above £300,000, aspiring first-time buyers face a growing hurdle in saving for larger deposits, making access to homeownership increasingly difficult.”
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, says: “There is no question some buyers and sellers have been pressing the pause button since war in the Middle East began. We expect that button will be pushed a little harder if it seems likely uncertainties over interest rates and inflation persist for much more than a few weeks.
“Until the end of February, activity had picked up steadily as seen in these and other housing market figures, although inevitably some of that improvement may now begin to slowly unwind. Either way, the availability of stock, particularly from landlords exiting the rental sector, and underlying worries about the economy, mean prices stay subdued and transaction times lengthen.”
Tomer Aboody, director of specialist lender MT Finance, says:
“The market saw a bit of a bounce at the end of last year and into this one once the Budget was out of the way. This data shows that people are feeling more confident and the market is in a better place than this time last year.
Further interest rate cuts will help buyers and encourage activity. However, people are already coming to the conclusion that they either buy in this market or wait, but there is only so long people can put off decisions before they simply have to move because of their situation. Many have been waiting for so long, and can see no government assistance on the horizon in the form of stamp duty reform, etc., so are taking the plunge regardless.”
