Following the latest ONS Private Rents and House Price Index data, industry experts have shared their reaction to a housing market showing continued resilience despite wider economic and geopolitical uncertainty. While average UK house prices remained flat year-on-year at £268,000 in March 2026, rental growth continued to edge upwards, with average private rents rising 3.5% annually to £1,381 in April. Experts point to affordability pressures, regional disparities and ongoing volatility in mortgage pricing as key factors continuing to shape both buyer and renter behaviour.
Mortgage and property experts from across the industry have shared their views.
Ian Futcher, financial planner at Quilter:
“UK house prices softened again in March, with the UK House Price Index showing a 0.4% monthly fall and annual growth flat , leaving the average price at £268,000. In England, prices were down 0.5% on the month and 0.6% year on year, confirming that momentum has faded.
London continues to stand out as the weakest major market. Prices in the capital were down 2.1% year on year, the poorest performance of any English region, underlining how stretched affordability remains at higher price points. Even with only modest monthly moves, London is clearly bearing the brunt of tighter borrowing conditions, with buyers far more sensitive to mortgage costs than in cheaper regions.
It is also important to put this data in context as the data set is based on completed transactions, and with a typical 6–8 week gap between agreeing a deal and completion, March’s figures largely reflect decisions taken earlier in the year. Crucially, these slightly depressed readings were recorded at a point when affordability was actually improving somewhat, as mortgage rates had eased back and confidence was stabilising.
This was also the first full month of the Iran war, which quickly injected new global uncertainty into markets. Since then, expectations around interest rates have shifted again, pushing mortgage pricing higher, even though rates have since come down from their peaks.
The risk looking ahead is that transactions being agreed more recently are facing a tougher affordability backdrop than the one reflected in this data. That points to continued pressure on activity and pricing in the near term, with London and other high‑value markets likely to remain the most exposed if borrowing costs stay elevated. At least in the short term, and until there is meaningful progress on the war in Iran, house prices are likely to remain depressed and volatile, reflecting the affordability pressures this situation continues to create.”
Commenting on house prices, Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, comments:
“Static house prices point to a market that is stabilising after a prolonged period of economic uncertainty and higher borrowing costs. From an agent perspective, the market remains active but measured. Buyers are continuing to view and make offers, but they are negotiating more carefully and remain highly conscious of value and monthly mortgage costs.
Sellers are increasingly having to price realistically to generate interest, and homes that are presented well and aligned to local market conditions are continuing to move. Stability may help rebuild confidence, particularly among first-time buyers who have been waiting for greater certainty around mortgage rates.”
Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at AJ Bell, comments:
“Property prices are teetering on the edge. They fell between February and March, and on an annual basis they’ve dropped in seven out of nine regions in England. Unfortunately, things could get worse from here.
These are the selling prices of sales that completed in March, so they reflect demand around the end of 2025. The market wasn’t much to write home about at the time and December tends to be a tricky month for sales anyway, but interest rates on mortgages were lower than they are now and were expected to fall coming into this year.
Since then, the harsher environment is likely to have taken a toll. Mortgage rates climbed for weeks, and although they’ve eased slightly, they’re still higher than before the start of the Iran war. It means we could see some annual price falls filter into the figures in the coming months.
In a market of falling prices, it’s worth taking stock of where you stand. There’s less pressure to move fast, so there’s an opportunity to take your time and negotiate a better deal. Some people will choose to bide their time and build a bigger deposit to give them more firepower when they come to buy. If you have a Lifetime ISA, it’s a chance to make the most of this year’s allowance and the government bonus. And if you choose to sit things out for a more significant period, there’s the chance to invest that money and make the most of your deposit in the interim.
Amy Reynolds, head of sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts, says: “Rents are holding firm, and we don’t see that changing any time soon. The reason is simple: stock levels remain extremely low while the number of applicants for each available property stays high. Until that supply and demand imbalance shifts meaningfully, landlords have little pressure to move on price.
“When we compare agreed sale prices on a like-for-like basis against equivalent properties this time last year, the difference is not significant. The market is more balanced than the data suggests; there is a big distortion from the original asking price, which in many cases is starting out high and applicants are slower to make offers, so there will be a volume drop in sales, but there isn’t a meaningful shift in underlying values.”
Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, says:
“Inflation softening to 2.8 per cent as a result of lower utility bills is welcome but the ongoing conflict in the Middle East means the inflationary threat has not rescinded.
While further interest rate cuts seem unlikely for now, perhaps the need to increase them has reduced, particularly in light of the weaker economy and rising unemployment. This will come as a relief for borrowers already grappling with higher living costs.
As lenders continue to tweak their mortgage rates downwards on the back of lower Swap rates, this will assist those buyers who are pressing on with their plans regardless of wider geopolitical concerns.”
Jason Tebb, President of OnTheMarket, comments on the March UK HPI data:
“Property values were flat on an annual basis in April, with the average price unchanged from a year ago. Given all that has happened in the past 12 months, this resilience is quite remarkable, with prices kept in check by increased stock, more choice and continued affordability concerns.
Average prices conceal significant regional differences, with values in London continuing to contract by the greatest margin with a 2.1 per cent fall in the 12 months to March. This is mainly due to a greater supply of stock and continued stretched affordability with prices considerably higher than in other parts of the country. Needs-based buyers are ploughing on with their transactions, while uncertainty created by the Middle East conflict is resulting in less-committed buyers adopting a more cautious ‘wait and see’ stance.
Lenders continue to trim their mortgage rates, but there is still plenty of volatility in Swap rates, which influences mortgage pricing. While inflation dipped to 2.8 per cent in the year to April, given the ongoing conflict in Iran, this downwards trend is unlikely to be sustained and is tempering market expectations of further base-rate reductions in the near future at least.”
In response to the ONS House Price Index data published today which showed that average UK house prices remains unchanged by 0.0% at £268,000, in the 12 months to March 2026, Nick Leeming, Chairman of national estate agency Jackson-Stops, comments:
“The latest figures point to a housing market where price growth remains subdued, with affordability pressures and higher borrowing costs continuing to keep buyers highly price conscious.
While demand remains present, buyers are approaching decisions more cautiously and are increasingly prepared to negotiate harder on pricing, particularly where properties are perceived to be overpriced or require additional investment. This is limiting upward pressure on values and, in some areas, contributing to modest price adjustments.
Compared with this time last year, the market is operating with less urgency and greater emphasis on value. Stronger regional markets and well-positioned homes continue to perform steadily, but sellers are having to adapt to a more competitive and price-sensitive environment overall.
Looking ahead, the direction of mortgage rates and wider economic confidence will remain central to market performance over the coming months. Recently sparked political uncertainty and fluctuations in financing costs are making conditions harder to predict, and we expect buyers to remain selective until there is greater clarity around the interest rate outlook.”
Alex Upton, Managing Director, Specialist Mortgages & Bridging Finance, Hampshire Trust Bank, said:
“Landlord strategy is continuing to change. We’re having far fewer conversations about expansion for the sake of growth, particularly as the Renters’ Rights Act starts feeding into longer-term investment decisions. Investors are looking much more closely at which properties still work financially, where income is more resilient and how portfolios need to evolve over the next few years.
At the smaller end of the market, some landlords are choosing to reduce exposure where higher borrowing costs and tighter regulation have changed the economics of certain properties. More experienced investors are still active, but they are approaching opportunities differently. We’re seeing more interest in HMOs, mixed-use assets and properties where there is genuine scope to strengthen income over time, rather than simply adding units wherever possible.
That shift is also changing the type of funding brokers are looking for. More cases now involve capital raising, restructuring existing borrowing or repositioning portfolios around a longer-term plan. Lenders need to understand how those portfolios operate in practice, not just how they fit inside a standard set of criteria.
What brokers and landlords need now is consistency. Where funding remains accessible and lenders continue to engage with more complex cases, confidence stays in the market and investment activity continues. That matters, because over time, confidence and availability play a major role in shaping the overall direction of the rental market.”
Chris Storey, Chief Commercial Officer, Atom bank:
“These figures are a snapshot of a chaotic period for the housing market, with the conflict in Iran leading to fluctuating swap rates and unexpected increases in mortgage rates. While inflation has fallen for the first time this year, this is likely to be short-lived given the ongoing war and impact on energy prices. The fact that house prices have remained unchanged against this backdrop underlines the scale of the challenge for would-be purchasers.
However, there is a danger that some buyers, particularly first-time buyers, are underestimating their options and unnecessarily delaying purchases. Recent research from Mortgage Advice Bureau found that 73% of first-time buyers are unaware of 95% LTV mortgages, at a time when rising rent and costs mean low deposit options are vital.
As an industry, we need to not only ensure that would-be buyers with modest deposits have access to flexible mortgage finance, but do a better job of educating them about the availability of such mortgage deals with mainstream lenders.”
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, says:
“This, the most comprehensive of all the housing market surveys, as it includes approximately 40 per cent of cash as well as mortgaged transactions, makes particularly interesting reading this time around.
“The data shows that the Iran War is catching up with buyers and sellers with its inevitable impact on confidence. The latest inflation figures are encouraging but are partly offset by yesterday’s deteriorating employment numbers. Overall, on the ground, sales are proceeding but more slowly and taking much longer to complete, with price reductions and renegotiations commonplace.”
Tomer Aboody, director of specialist lender MT Finance, says:
“No increase in average property values over the past 12 months illustrates the tough market conditions we are facing. Lack of affordability is the overriding concern for many, particularly first-time buyers and those purchasing in the southeast and London.
“Lack of encouragement of any form from the government has fuelled hesitation in both buyers and sellers, with many pausing and taking a ‘wait and see’ approach. With further reductions in base rate on hold at least for now, and more stamp duty paid due to the lack of any concessions this year, there is little incentive to make a move unless you really have to.
Despite recent reductions in pricing, mortgage rates are higher than this time last year, so needs-based buyers who still have to move are taking on higher loan-to-values in order to be able to buy.”
Jonathan Hopper, CEO of Garrington Property Finders, comments:
“London is no longer an outlier. Average property prices fell into the red across England and Scotland in the weeks following the outbreak of war in the Middle East.
Seven out of the nine English regions saw annual price growth turn negative in March. The biggest month-on-month drop was the 1.6% fall seen in the West Midlands, a region where prices had spent much of the previous year marching steadily upwards.
The most striking reversal of fortune was in the North East. Annual price growth here stood at 3.6% in February, but by the end of March it had plunged to an annual drop of 1.2%.
On an annual basis, prices are still falling faster in London than anywhere else. But the pace of the capital’s fall has slowed, from 3.3% in February to 2.1% in March.
But as London’s price correction begins to ease, it could be just getting started elsewhere. Anywhere where the number of homes for sale exceeds the number of serious buyers could see prices slip in coming months.
The imbalance in supply and demand, mixed with a hefty dose of war-related uncertainty, is forcing sellers to lower their price expectations and, in some cases, accept offers considerably below asking price.
April saw a surge in new listings too. Buyers are truly spoilt for choice now, and this has created a buyer’s market in which buyers hold huge sway over both prices and transaction levels.
For now, most deals are being done by those who need to move rather than just want to move, and by those who calculate that lower purchase prices more than offset higher borrowing costs.
But as the volatility in the Gulf settles, the widespread rebalancing of prices will encourage more discretionary buyers that the time to strike is now. Lower prices are creating strong buying opportunities for the well-informed and agile.”
