Ahead of today’s Spring Statement, the relative lack of media fanfare has been striking. Widely trailed as a ‘non-event’, advisers and market watchers have instead been bracing for the latest update from the Office for Budget Responsibility on the health of the UK economy, including fresh forecasts for growth, inflation, borrowing and tax receipts.
Whilst no new policy measures were expected nor delivered, the focus has firmly been on the numbers and the data on the economic outlook from the OBR, as well as impacts on the cost of living, with consumers and businesses continuing to feel the pressures.
However, events beyond Westminster may yet prove far more consequential. Just days into escalating tensions in the Middle East, energy markets have already reacted sharply, with gas prices in particular moving higher. While it’s very early days, the risk of renewed inflationary pressure stemming from instability in the Gulf cannot be dismissed. Much will depend on how the situation unfolds from here.
Crucially, today’s forecasts will not have incorporated this latest bout of geopolitical volatility, a factor that could yet complicate the Chancellor’s fiscal targets in the weeks and months ahead.
So, against this uncertain backdrop, what are the key takeaways from today’s Spring Statement for advisers? Experts from across the profession share their immediate reactions below.
Andrew Zanelli, head of technical engagement at Aberdeen Adviser, said: “It’s a case of no news is good news today. Advisers and their clients will breathe a sigh of relief that the much anticipated ‘boring budget’ turned out to be just that as they continue to work through what last year’s Autumn Budget means for them.
“With pensions being brought into the IHT scope from April 2027 against a backdrop of an IHT nil rate band frozen since 2009, rising property values and IHT receipts, we’re hearing in our meetings with advisers they are getting significant numbers of new client enquiries, especially on IHT planning as many people begin to realise they’ll be impacted.
“They may need to reassess their financial plans as a result and this is when professional financial planners and advisers prove their worth. By speaking to an adviser, consumers can not just understand what’s going on but also consider their choices within a longer- term strategy and make sure their money is working as hard as it possibly can to still support overall financial goals.”
James Tothill, Investment Specialist at Wesleyan Assurance Society, said: “The government’s commitment to one fiscal event per year brings helpful predictability, creatingan opportunity for advisers to prepare clients for the changes ahead.
“April will see the Cash ISA limit drop to £12,000 and tax rates on dividends and savings income rise, as announced in the Autumn Budget. Combined with pensions entering the IHT net in 2027, we’re looking at a landscape where tax-efficient planning becomes even more valuable for clients.
“The return of market volatility – particularly following recent events in the Middle East – makes this an important moment to revisit client portfolios and ensure their investment approach genuinely matches their risk tolerance and long-term objectives.
“Tools like smoothed funds can play a crucial role here, helping clients stay invested through turbulent periods by managing the day-to-day volatility that can derail even well-considered plans. For advisers, the focus now should be on helping clients navigate these known changes whilst building resilience against the uncertainty we can’t predict.”
David Rees, Head of Global Economics, Schroders said:
“UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Spring Statement was very much the low-key update the government had promised. After a period of significant fiscal events, today’s announcement amounted to little more than a refresh of the economic projections.
“Inflation has been falling in recent months, largely due to food and energy disinflation. Further declines are expected, notably as budgetary measures kick in to lower energy inflation from April. Recent comments from policymakers suggest that the Bank of England is highly likely to seize on the subsequent decline in headline inflation to cut interest rates further.
“We have factored in 0.5% of easing across both the upcoming March and May meetings, but we remain concerned about underlying stickiness in services inflation. Moreover, we are yet to be convinced that the UK’s rising unemployment rate is opening up genuine slack in the labour market that will result in significant declines in pay growth.
“Meanwhile, recent increases in energy prices off the back of events in the Middle East cast doubt over future energy disinflation. If oil and gas prices remain elevated for an extended period, they could offset the disinflationary impact of the April budgetary measures and give the Bank pause for thought.
“If higher energy prices squeeze real incomes and prevent the Bank from cutting rates, hopes would be dashed for a growth pick-up in the months ahead. That, in turn, could ultimately force the Chancellor into action when fiscal watchers reconvene later this year – particularly if the recent increase in gilt yields continues.”
Steve Owen, Head of Proposition (EMEA), Morningstar Wealth:
“Luckily the Spring Statement sprung no new surprises as advisers are already working hard to plan for their clients after recent Budgets.
“Between IHT on pensions, changes to the Cash ISA allowance and cuts to CGT thresholds, financial planning has become much more difficult and tax-focused over the past 18 months. Today’s Spring Statement, which was essentially an economic update from the Chancellor, will be welcome respite for financial advisers as they help clients navigate an increasingly complex environment.
“The conflict in the Middle East has added uncertainty to not only the global economy but to client plans too. An ‘as you were’ Spring Statement is the little bit of reassurance clients need in these volatile times.”
Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter:
“The Spring Statement should have been a non-event, used primarily as a source of political capital by Rachel Reeves. She did indeed share OBR forecasts that predicted improving headroom against fiscal rules, marginally lower inflation in coming years, lower gilt yields and lower interest rates. However, given events unfolding in the Middle East, today’s statement already looks a little out of date.
“Bond yields have risen sharply, expectations for rate cuts have been tapered from two this year to just closer to one, while gas prices have spiked significantly in the last 24 hours, providing fresh fears a looming burst of inflation is coming should the Middle East conflict become protracted. Fiscal headroom, as a result, may need recalculating in weeks to come. Rachel Reeves has historically spoken about shielding the UK economy from future shocks, so this will be a real test of that mantra.
“Looking at the specific forecasts, while the OBR has downgraded growth for this year, it has subsequently upgraded it for the next two years – although the net outcome remains the same. Rachel Reeves likes to say this Labour government is stimulating the economy, but the reality is the forecast and the actual results remain underwhelming at best. Reeves said she wouldn’t be satisfied with these forecasts being reality, and neither she should be, but whether she can in fact beat them is subject to events outside of her control.
“The problem she has is the OBR admits the fiscal outlook remains challenging, before even getting into any geopolitical shocks. The tax burden remains high, demographic pressures are intensifying and debt to GDP ratio could soar without a significant turnaround in fortunes. Global shocks to the economic system have had outsized influence on the economy in the past – with another looming, it is unclear where the growth will come from to help counteract those impacts.
“As a result markets are likely to give little heed to today’s announcements, focussing instead on the new reality we find ourselves in.”
Mike Ambery, Retirement Savings Director at Standard Life plc said: “The Chancellor has remained true to the Government’s commitment to one major fiscal event each year, and today’s Spring Statement has proved to be more of an economic update than a platform for new policy. Following last November’s Budget – one of the Government’s set-piece moments – this was a low-key event, especially for pensions. The main statement of note was the Government reaffirming benefit upratings and reiterating that the full new state pension will rise by 4.8% from April to £241.30 per week (£12,547 annually).
“A combination of pressure on the public purse and a commitment to firm fiscal rules mean attention will inevitably shift to the next Autumn Budget. For pension policy a notable feature of this Statement has been what was not announced. One welcome aspect has been the absence of speculation around pension reliefs and allowances or talk of structural reform. Over the past two years, repeated conjecture about potential changes has not helped people’s confidence and trust in long-term saving. Stability matters, and avoiding another cycle of uncertainty later this year would be welcome for both individuals and employers planning ahead.”
Katie Horne, savings expert at Flagstone, comments:
Despite delivering her Spring Statement against a backdrop of extraordinary and rapidly unfolding geopolitical and economic uncertainty, this was a Chancellor who had no time for the soap opera theatrics we’ve become accustomed to with major Treasury announcements.
The Chancellor delivered this statement, determined to herald a return to business-as-usual. We certainly got business-as-usual, and amid all the global turmoil, markets will thank the government for it.
However, whether what the Chancellor is planning and the OBR is forecasting remains the case for long remains to be seen.
After its surprise plummet in February, it was reasonable to imagine that the CPI would continue to fall over the coming months and inflation could return to its coveted 2% spot as early as this Spring. Falls like this would ease pressures on pricing and the general cost of living, and could even spur employers to open up more jobs. Next, we would then need to see unemployment figures fall, particularly among young graduates with decades-long student debts to pay.
All that we can be sure of right now is that the assumptions made as recently as only a few days ago cannot be relied on any longer.
While it puts undesirable pressure on the cost of living and servicing mortgages, if the base rate doesn’t fall and interest rates subsequently stay higher for longer, this creates opportunities for savers determined to put their hard-earned cash to work.
With Cash ISA season heading into its final weeks, banks continue to offer competitive rates as the final wave of Cash ISA deposits for this tax year heads their way. Right now, it’s not hard to find standard and tax-free savings accounts alike offering rates at least 50 bps above the base rate and as much as 150 bps above inflation, guaranteeing competitive, protected, inflation-beating returns. Locking in fixed-term rates for portions of your cash might be a shrewd move in the longer term, but for savers who need some cash readily available, instant access and shorter term notice product rates should stay competitive for several weeks yet.
Gemma Gathercole, Strategic Engagement Lead for England, ACCA UK:
“ACCA welcomes the Chancellor’s commitment to a single fiscal event in a year, we have reiterated the need for simplicity, certainty and stability in the tax system, and holding to a single fiscal event contributes to that much needed stability.
“Undoubtedly, heightened global uncertainty, combined with the UK’s weak economic growth and rising unemployment, continue to make it a challenging picture for the Chancellor, however the Chancellor remained steadfast and positive in her vision for the economy.
“ACCA remains concerned that changes coming in the new tax year, such as the increased dividend tax rates and higher Capital Gains tax on specific reliefs, as well as business rates revaluation, will place yet more negative pressure on small business owners, sole traders, and taxpayers.
“In particular, the significant changes coming to Making Tax Digital from April will be a huge shift and one that has the potential to cause headaches for many taxpayers – and for HMRC. Combined with the continued hangover from increases to National Insurance Contributions for employers, and the prospect of higher fuel costs, there appears to be little respite ahead for small firms.
“ACCA appreciates the Chancellor’s intention to bring stability and clarity, but the need to deliver economic growth continues to dominate concerns. With challenging headwinds, the economic picture globally looks unsettled, and developments in the Middle East are clearly an important risk on both the growth and inflation fronts.
“As the government lays the ground for its budget in the autumn, it’s becoming clearer that stronger action will be necessary to support tangible business growth.”
Harry Woolman, Global Capital Markets Analyst at Validus Risk Management, said:
“Today’s Spring Statement from Chancellor Rachel Reeves was largely anticipated to be deliberately uneventful, focusing on messaging around stability in public finances, economic reform and infrastructure investment. That notion, however, radically changed on the weekend. Airstrikes from the US and Israel on Iran ensured exogenous effects – increasing price pressures from constrained oil and LNG supply, for example – once again present significant headwinds to fiscal and monetary policymakers alike. The UK, like the Eurozone, remains largely beholden to live commodity market prices, suggesting inflation prospects have further upside potential, should the conflict be sustained.
Furthermore, domestic food inflation rose a more-than-expected 4.3% per this morning’s data release, up from 4% the month prior and compounding the prevailing concern of higher-for-longer rates. In fact, markets have priced out one 25-basis point move from the Bank of England by year-end already, with borrowing costs rising across the curve for the UK consumer.
In a world that has become “yet more uncertain”, Reeves’ uneventful speech will provide [very] short-term relief. Nonetheless, ultimately the Labour Party remains under significant pressure following last week’s defeat in the Gorton and Denton by-election, an historical shoo-in for Labour. Coming out third best to both the Greens and Reform parties exacerbated Keir Starmer’s growing unpopularity, with backbenchers calling for a change in tack from the ruling party. Reuters/Ipsos polling released this morning shows the Green Party has usurped Labour as the second-most popular party in the country, with the incumbents at their lowest-ever level of 16%. Clearly, something drastic will have to change as we are now just two months out from the critical local elections in May.
Headline takeaways from the Chancellor’s statement are a near-term increase in unemployment, before moderating within this parliament, along with 1%-2% GDP growth, as well as an increase in fiscal headroom to £23.6billion from £21.7billion. No doubt, these metrics will remain overawed by the present geopolitical backdrop.
The pound remains on the back foot and is down nearly 1.60% against the dollar this week as investors pile into haven assets.”
Faye Church, Senior Planning Director at Rathbones, says:
“Spring Statements are built on the known knowns and the known unknowns. The difficulty is that geopolitics has a habit of turning yesterday’s unknowns into today’s shocks – and the escalating situation in Iran has already raised serious questions about whether the new forecasts were out of date almost as soon as they landed.
“The Statement itself was intentionally unexciting. In volatile times, predictability is a policy tool in its own right. The aim was not to surprise markets, but to anchor expectations – even if events since then have already complicated the picture. As expected, the set piece did not deliver sweeping tax changes or major spending commitments.
“Notably, the Chancellor offered only silence on pensions, with no policy changes or updates unveiled – a reprieve of sorts after the scale of uncertainty surrounding the pensions regime in the run up to last year’s Budget.
“However, events in the Middle East have complicated the fiscal picture. For most households, geopolitics can feel remote – until it shows up in oil prices — at the petrol pump, on energy bills, and in the weekly shop. A sustained spike in oil can ripple through the economy via higher fuel and transport costs, feeding into broader inflation and potentially keeping interest rates higher for longer than markets would like. That matters because it influences the pace of rate cuts and, in turn, mortgage rates, savings returns and the cost of borrowing.
“Geopolitical shocks also rarely arrive neatly. They tend to push governments into reactive choices — whether that means higher defence spending, fresh support to head off another inflation flare‑up, or renewed pressure to keep energy costs contained. Any of these could quickly reshuffle fiscal priorities, particularly at a time when the public finances are already tight. One saving grace is that fiscal headroom has increased, which could provide some scope to help fund any reactive measures.
“It’s also worth remembering that economic forecasts are seldom right – they are frameworks, not promises. The best response for households is not to try to predict the next twist in global events, but to build resilience into their own finances. That means stress testing budgets, maintaining a cash buffer where possible, and keeping investments diversified rather than reacting to every headline.”
Karen Barrett, founder and chief executive of Unbiased, comments:
“Against a backdrop of global instability, economic confidence remains fragile.
“With growth forecasts downgraded and public finances under pressure, it is natural for people to feel unsettled. Even if inflation eases, reassurance does not automatically follow. Households are navigating a complex mix of global volatility, policy shifts, and changing market conditions.
“That uncertainty has real consequences. It affects how people save, invest, plan for retirement, and make long-term financial decisions.
“Periods like this are a reminder that financial decisions should not be made in isolation. Qualified financial advice can turn uncertainty into a clear, structured plan. It allows people to sense-check their approach, understand their options, and move forward with conviction.”
William Marshall, Chief Investment Officer, Hymans Robertson Investment Services (HRIS) says:
“Ahead of the speech, Advisers will have noted that gilt yields have increased over the last few days. For many of their clients, the events in Middle East would have been the focus over what the Chancellor intended to say today. As such, the gilt market was little moved by the Chancellor’s speech. The headroom against the fiscal rules has increased, but a lot of this would have come from the fall in gilt yields that we have seen over the months since the 2025 Autumn Budget. Much of this will therefore have been reversed, given the market moves seen over the last couple of days.
“With the developing Middle East situation, the Chancellor will have a lot to manage between now and this year’s Autumn Statement. We’ll likely see continued turbulence in the markets and Advisers’ clients will probably want a lot of assurances. Now’s the time to focus on fixing the roof while the sun shines, concentrating on long-term strategic decisions has never been more important. Insightful and regular communication will be key for helping investors to hold their nerve as we navigate the coming months”
Claire Trott, Head of Advice at St. James’s Place, said:
“These forecasts are always riddled with uncertainty, and nothing is more uncertain than changes that are still to come into force. We are yet to see the full impact on IHT receipts with regards to changes to unused pension funds and agricultural and business property reliefs. The OBR comments that behavioural responses make forecasts in this area particularly uncertain. These changes are something that people have some control over and the value of advice in these areas will drive down the IHT tax take in the long run. There is still plenty of time for people to address and counteract potential increases in IHT using completely legitimate options, if they choose to act.”
David Williams, head of group risk at Everywhen, comments:
“Today’s Spring Budget delivered no new announcements directly affecting employee benefits, a move that was widely expected and consistent with the government’s intention to avoid major policy changes in the Spring update. While we hoped for minor tweaks to help support employers and employees, the absence of change also brings a welcome period of stability for organisations who are still planning their benefits strategies around bigger changes announced over the last 18 months.
“Encouragingly, the broader economic backdrop continues to improve with lower inflation and interest rates. With this improved environment, many employers may feel better placed to invest in their people now or as part of future budgeting later this year – strengthening reward, wellbeing, and benefits packages. So, while no news is good news right now, it is important for the government to combine an improving outlook with momentum generated by activity such as the Keep Britain Working report and start to build future policy decisions around recommendations that can improve the productivity of the UK through healthy workforces.”
Richard Pike, sales and marketing director at Phoebus Software, said:
“The Chancellor said this would be a low-key announcement, but the conflict in the Middle East cast a shadow over her Spring Statement today. The OBR’s economic outlook predicts a loosening labour market and falling energy and food prices will contribute to inflation reaching its 2 per cent target in late 2026. However, it’s difficult to see how inflation won’t be affected by the uncertainty caused by the current military conflict. We’re seeing mortgage rates already starting to tick up as the market prices in a potential base rate hold by the Bank of England later this month.
“The OBR also predicts net additions to the UK housing stock will fall to a low of 220,000 in 2026-27, way below volumes in the early 2020s, as recent subdued housing starts to feed through. It also predicts housebuilding will reach 1.3 million by 2030, below the Government’s stated ambition to build 1.5 million homes. Rachel Reeves needs to consider reforms to incentivise housebuilders and create impetus in the building sector if she’s going to hit her target.”
Anisha Chawla, Private Client Tax Manager at Menzies LLP, commented:
“A measured and low-key Spring Statement is exactly what the UK needs after months of turbulence and policy reversals. British businesses will value any sense of consistency, particularly against a continued backdrop of global uncertainty. This sense of predictability is essential if the UK is to retain talent, attract investment and ensure opportunities are not lost to more competitive and reliable markets overseas.
But stability cannot become a ‘say nothing now and revisit it later’ strategy. Businesses are not looking for difficult decisions to be quietly deferred in the hope they avoid scrutiny – they are looking for certainty and direction. Silence alone will not rebuild confidence. Recent increases in National Insurance contributions and an inflated tax burden have placed significant strain on Britain’s businesses, especially smaller firms. Without a clear and consistent growth strategy, confidence will remain fragile, and investment and planning will continue to stall.
Growth is subdued, inflationary pressures persist, and the cost of living continues to weigh heavily on households. At the same time, higher energy prices and softer consumer demand are adding further strain across the economy. Businesses need reassurance that there will be no further unexpected tax changes or spending commitments that could disrupt planning and investment.
Repeated revisions to proposed tax measures – particularly around areas such as Business Property Relief and pensions – have created uncertainty for those trying to plan responsibly for succession and retirement. Announcements followed by amendments or clarifications risk prompting premature decisions that may later prove counterproductive, leaving business owners and individuals unsure how best to proceed.
If the government is serious about restoring confidence, it must adopt a more measured and consultative approach to tax and pensions reform. Only then will businesses and individuals have the clarity and stability they need to plan, invest and grow.”
Sally Ashford, Partner, Charles Russell Speechlys said:
Almost 4 months on from the 2025 Budget, and 16 months since the changes to inheritance tax relief were announced, there have been numerous ‘tweaks’ to the proposals, increasing the uncertainty and anxiety for clients. This statement is designed to promote stability and is the Chancellor’s opportunity to show that her policies have had a positive impact, although the rapidly changing economic and political backdrop suggests otherwise. Careful planning will be essential in order to ensure arrangements remain fit for purpose as policy and market conditions evolve.’
Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, comments:
“While the numbers are generally pointing in the right direction, it still feels like we’re watching progress in slow motion. The OBR’s new forecasts indicate a more lacklustre economy near-term, meaning the UK continues to be stuck in the mud.
“Although there is hope on the horizon in the form of upgraded economic growth forecasts for 2027 and 2028, that is of little consolation to businesses hoping for a sales boost this year. It’s also worrying for consumers having to contend with a weak jobs market as there is no sign of a big improvement soon.
“Chancellor Rachel Reeves struck a confident tone in her speech, but she is sounding like a broken record. Once again, the message was about laying the foundations for stability today, but jam won’t come until tomorrow.
“While she might be right, and it’s certainly welcome to see a Spring Statement full of upgrades rather than widespread downgrades, the nation’s patience is wearing thin.
“Events in the Middle East threaten to hold back the UK economy even more if the spike in oil prices is sustained for weeks or months. That could drive up inflation and force the Bank of England to pause any further interest rate cuts in the interim.
“Higher inflation and rates no longer coming down has negative connotations for consumer and business sentiment, and in a worst-case scenario, could lead to economic disappointment and mean the OBR’s already-downgraded forecast is still too high. That situation might also mean Reeves’ prediction that UK employment is ‘set to peak later this year’ is also too optimistic.
“The OBR flags conflict in the Middle East and global trade policy as key risks to its economic forecasts, and they are the elephants in the room as far as Reeves is concerned.
“Financial markets took the Spring Statement in their stride as there was enough good and bad news to settle nerves. Gilt yields dipped before moving back up, sterling pulled back slightly, and the FTSE 100 stayed weak as its fortunes were almost entirely influenced by events in the Middle East rather than the chancellor’s update.”
Mark Campbell, Head of Wealth Proposition at Isio, comments after the Chancellor’s Spring Statement:
“Today’s Spring Statement comes at a time of heightened geopolitical tension and market sensitivity, with escalating developments in the Middle East adding another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile global outlook. Against that backdrop, the Chancellor’s emphasis on fiscal discipline and stability is clearly designed to reinforce confidence in the UK’s economic direction.
For investors and business owners, the key issue is not simply tax policy but resilience. Updated growth and borrowing forecasts, combined with external pressures on energy prices and inflation expectations, will influence interest rate assumptions and asset valuations in the months ahead.
While there were no further structural changes to wealth taxation today, the landscape has already shifted significantly following reforms announced last November. Amendments to Business Property Relief and the future inclusion of pensions within estates for inheritance tax purposes represent meaningful changes for succession planning and intergenerational wealth transfer. For entrepreneurs in particular, the narrowing of reliefs increases the importance of early and deliberate structuring decisions.
Further legislated adjustments due in 2027, including changes to property and savings income taxation and proposed Cash ISA reforms, mean the policy environment remains tighter than in previous years.
In periods of geopolitical instability and fiscal constraint, the premium shifts to proactive planning. Investors and business owners should be stress-testing both portfolios and estate plans against a more volatile global backdrop, rather than waiting for the next major fiscal event. This means that now is the right time to revisit your long-term strategy, from succession planning to retirement timing, and ensure they remain robust in a more volatile economic environment.”
Andy Butcher, Branch Principal & Chartered Financial Planner at Raymond James Investment Services, said:
“The Labour Government came into power 18 months ago promising growth as a priority. During today’s Spring Statement, Chancellor Rachel Reeves shared updated forecasts for the coming years, confirming that downgraded growth figures are expected for 2026. As anticipated, the Chancellor failed to outline any new policies that would support British business and help Britons save, such as reversals of the VCT tax relief reduction and the IHT levy on pensions.
“In two weeks’ time we’ll hear from the Chancellor as she announces major choices for the UK economy, aimed at unlocking opportunity across the country, supporting innovation and breaking down trade barriers – the latter point being most relevant considering ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Stability was the main message we sought from this Spring Statement, and with forecasts showing that unemployment is set to peak later this year, we hope that future government decisions are focused on supporting business and encouraging working Britons to save and invest.”
