The latest HMRC property transaction figures for March suggest the housing market is proving more resilient than expected, with activity holding up despite wider economic uncertainty and ongoing global pressures. Industry reaction below points to a market that remains broadly stable, with signs of improving momentum as mortgage rates continue to edge down and buyer activity picks up following a softer start to the quarter.
Ian Futcher, financial planner at Quilter comments:
“The housing market is showing early signs of stabilisation, but the detail in the March data underlines just how distorted the backdrop still is. Residential transactions came in at 104,070 on a seasonally adjusted basis, up just 1% on February and the strongest monthly reading since March 2025.
That modest uptick points to activity finding a floor, but it does not signal a meaningful recovery in demand. And crucially, these figures are backwards-looking. With completions typically lagging initial offers by two to four months, they reflect decisions made before the most recent moves in rates and market sentiment. That makes the Bank of England decision later today far more relevant for the direction of travel from here.
Markets are firmly expecting a hold, but that should not be mistaken for stability. The Iran conflict has become the key external variable, through its potential to keep energy prices elevated and delay the path back to target inflation.
That has a direct bearing on housing. For borrowers, a hold means no immediate change in monthly repayments for those on tracker or standard variable rates. However, the real influence is through expectations.
Swap rates have eased from the volatility seen at the outbreak of war, and that has started to feed into mortgage pricing. Lenders are already responding, becoming more competitive to stimulate activity in what remains a soft market.
But the improvement is fragile. What matters most from today is the Bank’s guidance. If policymakers treat the geopolitical backdrop as a risk to monitor rather than a reason to tighten further, that should help anchor expectations that there is no imminent hike. That would support a gradual improvement in mortgage pricing and, in time, transaction volumes.
Anything that suggests a hike in the future is likely to feed back into higher swap rates and therefore higher mortgage pricing.”
Nathan Emerson, CEO at Propertymark, comments:
“Despite starting the year with positivity and with current uncertainty globally, it sadly comes as little shock that we are seeing a slowing year-on-year in the number of completed property transactions within the marketplace. Although there is positive news to be seen when comparing the figures directly against last month, it is important to acknowledge the many challenges ahead.
With the Bank of England due to make an announcement on the base rate later today, they will no doubt be ‘target locked’ on a strategy to help keep the economy steady, as a widely held option suggests the economic impact of Middle Eastern tensions could bite for some time yet.
As consumers prepare for the traditionally busy spring months to buy and maybe sell a property, they should keep a close eye on mortgage deals and future affordability in terms of ensuring continuity regarding household budgeting in case of future jumps in inflation.
Propertymark’s sector data recently demonstrated a peak in the number of housing transactions taking in excess of 17 weeks to complete. With current uncertainty within the economy, there is potential for this figure to trend further upwards.”
Maria Harris, chair of the Open Property Data Association, commented:
“The fall in transaction volumes compared with this time last year points to a more fundamental problem in the housing market: people are choosing not to move. Our research shows that two‑thirds of home movers found the process so frustrating that they would avoid doing it again. In a period of heightened market volatility, that reluctance only intensifies, with more households putting moving plans on hold altogether.
The current housing system actively discourages movement. It is slow, fragmented and reliant on static documents, creating unnecessary friction, cost and uncertainty for consumers. This is not a short‑term confidence issue; it is a structural one.
At OPDA, our vision is to modernise the property system so it is fit for purpose in a digital economy, one that puts consumers at the centre of their transaction, gives them control of their data, and enables the sector to work together more effectively. Rebuilding trust in home moving is critical if we want a more dynamic, resilient housing market.”
Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, says:
“The war in the Middle East is likely to lead to higher inflation and weaker growth, which is bound to have an impact on housing market activity, and yet these figures show that transaction numbers are not only holding up but improving month-on-month.
Despite the Bank of England holding base rate last month, and expected to do so again this month, mortgage lenders continue to trim their rates in light of falling Swap rates and a return to service standards being met.
In further good news for borrowers, Barclays, HSBC, and NatWest are all reducing their mortgage rates this week, with base-rate trackers falling below 4 per cent.”
Amy Reynolds, head of sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts, says:
“On the ground, we saw some softening in initial viewing levels in March as people took stock of the situation in the Middle East and what impact this might have on borrowing costs. However, since then, things have picked up and the past week has been very busy, with a strong level of viewings and serious offers coming through.
Transactions are being agreed at levels broadly in line with what we would expect at this time of year, and while we fell behind in exchanges in the first quarter, we are now back in line on volumes and ahead of revenue, reflecting the higher-value properties which have been transacting post-Budget.”
Ryan McGrath, Director of Second Charge Mortgages at Pepper Money, comments:
“The latest HMRC data released this morning shows a year-on-year decline in property transactions, though this primarily reflects the very strong levels of activity seen in March last year rather than any deterioration in current market conditions.
At that point, transaction volumes were artificially lifted as buyers rushed to complete ahead of changes to Stamp Duty thresholds, creating a clear distortion in the year-on-year comparison. Once those effects are stripped out, the underlying trend remains broadly steady despite the broader backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty.
From a second charge mortgage perspective, the current interest rate environment continues to play a defining role in borrower decision-making. With rates still elevated by recent standards, many homeowners are prioritising continuity over change, opting to maintain existing mortgage arrangements rather than refinance into higher-cost options unless there is a clear financial advantage.
This cautious approach is helping to support stable demand in the second charge space, particularly where borrowers are seeking additional liquidity without disturbing competitive first charge deals.
Against this backdrop, today’s figures coincide with the Bank of England’s interest rate decision, where rates are widely expected to remain unchanged. That ongoing stability is likely to reinforce current borrowing behaviour, with both consumers and intermediaries continuing to take a measured approach in a higher-rate environment.”
Jason Tebb, President of OnTheMarket, comments on HMRC residential property transactions:
“The continued uptick in transaction numbers on the previous month underlines the resilience of the housing market, as buyers and sellers who need to move get on with the business of doing so.
While borrowers would prefer last year’s rate-cutting trend to continue, a hold in interest rates at 3.75 per cent last month, and another expected this time around, suggests a steady rate environment while the Bank waits to see what impact the Middle East conflict may have on inflation.
In the past week, some of the biggest lenders have reduced their mortgage rates, helping ease borrower affordability. Increased stock, as sellers try to take advantage of the spring market, means buyers have more choice than has been the case for a while. This is putting them in a stronger negotiating position, and they remain price sensitive.”
Richard Pike, chief sales and marketing officer at Phoebus Software, commented:
“What we’re seeing with March’s completions data is a pipeline built before the Iran conflict. The impact of the resulting market volatility on the UK housing market won’t be fully apparent until late Spring, early Summer, when we’ll start to see how higher mortgage rates have affected demand for properties. Last week’s Rightmove HPI data shows buyer demand has fallen compared to April last year but remains resilient despite the higher borrowing costs. My view is buyers will be more cautious and selective in the current climate, but demand will remain steady.
All eyes will be on the Bank of England at noon today, but unless the MPC surprises the market, I don’t expect to see a sudden move on mortgage rates, which have already been priced on swap rates.”
Nichola Bell, Strategic Partnership Manager, atSaffron for Intermediaries comments:
“Today’s uptick in transactions suggests the market is remaining resilient, despite ongoing economic uncertainty. Demand is there for committed buyers as deals push forward, but the real pressure point is delivery. Transactions are now taking upwards of 17 weeks, and with close to a quarter still falling through, getting deals over the line remains a significant challenge, even as sellers adjust pricing to attract buyers.
The interest rate decision later today should bring some much-needed clarity for both buyers and sellers navigating a stop-start market. If stability continues to take hold, we could expect more consistent activity to build through the rest of the year, with professional advice playing a key role in helping borrowers secure the right deal.”
Tomer Aboody, director of specialist lender MT Finance, says:
“With transactional figures significantly lower than 12 months ago when buyers raced to take advantage of the stamp duty holiday, and the government not only reluctant to help but having a negative impact on the market, we could see the situation worsen.
Although the property market has always been the platform for a strong economy, even if demand is strong, there is only so much negativity that buyers and sellers can take before sentiment switches.
Buyers have been resilient in tough conditions, but one wonders for how much longer this will be the case.”
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, says:
“By including mortgaged, as well as cash sales, these figures provide an interesting snapshot, although they cover only the early part of the war in the Middle East.
On the ground, we are seeing much the same – buyers and sellers are defying the doom mongers even though most seem to accept mortgage and inflation costs are likely to get worse before they get better.
The need-to-moves are showing more realism when it comes to negotiations, although the amount of choice of flats in particular means it is taking longer to obtain commitment, and some prices are softening a little. Demand for smaller family houses has remained relatively strong as we would expect at this time of year.”
Hamza Behzad, Business Development Director, Finova said:
“A rise in transactions shows the UK housing market is holding up better than many expected after a shaky start to the year. Even with mortgage costs jumping in March, enough buyers and sellers are still pushing deals through to keep prices stable, signalling the market’s underlying strength.
With mortgage rates slowly starting to ease, there’s a sense that activity could stay busy in the near term. However, the big question mark hangs over the Bank of England’s decision later today. Any decision is unlikely to deliver a clear-cut direction for borrowers, and even if rates do come down further, the impact may be patchy. Lenders are still closely tracking swap rates, which means any reductions could be selective or short-lived rather than a broad shift across the market.
What stands out now is how balanced the market feels. This isn’t being driven by hype, but by genuine need. Buyers who have to move are getting on with it, keeping activity steady. Meanwhile, more discretionary and price-sensitive purchasers are holding back, taking time to weigh up affordability and waiting for clearer signs that pressures are easing.”
Jodi Spreadbury, Senior Mortgage and Protection Broker at The Mortgage Broker:
“If the Bank of England holds at 3.75%, that would offer continuity, but it should not be mistaken for a return to a settled mortgage market. Lenders do not price purely off the base rate, and borrowers have already seen how quickly sentiment and pricing can shift.
For homeowners and buyers, a hold would be useful in terms of stability, but the real message would still be the same as what we always say. Review your options early and focus on what is suitable and affordable for your own circumstances over the course of the term, not just based on the immediate interest rate.”
