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HMRC Property Transactions: “Last year’s data was skewed signifcantly by the Stamp Duty holiday” – reaction

Following the June 2022 property transactions data just published, mortgage and financial experts have commented:

Alastair Hoyne, managing director at London-based Finanze“It’s likely owner-occupier residential sales will level out in the months ahead as homeowners take a breath and assess the market before moving house in these turbulent economic times. We may already be seeing the signs of this in the lower level of residential property transactions in June compared to May. Within the residential investment space, however, we continue to see property sales increase as cash rich landlords take advantage of growing market distress.”

Andrew Montlake, managing director of the UK-wide mortgage broker, Coreco: “Transactions are down significantly compared to June 2021 as last year’s data was skewed by the Stamp Duty holiday. The slowdown in transactions compared to May this year is likely to be a sign of things to come as people become increasingly cautious as rates rise and the cost of living crisis bites. However, for now at least, the jobs market remains strong and that will ensure transactions don’t go off a cliff.”

Ross Boyd, founder of the always-on mortgage comparison platform, Dashly.com“Comparing June 2022 to June 2021 is almost worthless given the impact of the Stamp Duty holiday on transactions. June 2022 was inevitably going to be lower. The drop-off compared to May is a more accurate gauge of where the market is headed, as soaring inflation and rising interest rates suck confidence out of the market.”

Samuel Mather-Holgate of Swindon-based Mather & Murray Financial: Looking forward, it’s likely residential property transactions will continue to decline until the broader economic picture starts to improve, and that doesn’t look like it will happen anytime soon. The current level of inflation is likely to trigger a recession, which will clearly temper transaction levels. The residential property market is driven by sentiment and recessions hit sentiment — and transaction levels — hard.”

Imran Hussain, director at Nottingham-based Harmony Financial Services“The number of residential transactions dropping relative to May is likely to be a combination of slightly reducing demand amid the cost of living crisis, rising rates and problems getting sales over the line due to conveyancers and lenders being under a lot of pressure. During the second half of the year I expect transactions to continue to tail off slightly due to the lack of properties on the market and a growing sense of caution among buyers.”

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