Dovile Silenskyte, director of digital assets research at WisdomTree, explores the growing comparison between bitcoin and gold as stores of value shaped by inflation, interest rates and wider macroeconomic forces.
Bitcoin may look complicated, but one simple comparison is becoming increasingly useful: bitcoin versus gold. Both are often seen as “stores of value” that react to big economic forces like inflation, interest rates, and the strength of the US dollar. The key difference is how they behave. Gold tends to be steady and defensive, while bitcoin is more volatile but may have greater upside potential. Right now, based on WisdomTree’s internal analysis, bitcoin appears to be around 26% undervalued compared to gold[1], meaning we believe it looks relatively cheap in today’s macro environment.
This conclusion comes from a model that tracks how money typically moves. It looks at factors such as inflation expectations, interest rates, currency trends, and investor demand. As of the end of March 2026, the model suggests bitcoin should be trading at a higher level relative to gold than it currently is. However, this is not a prediction that bitcoin’s price will rise immediately. Instead, it highlights a gap in relative value, which may close over time depending on economic conditions.
Understanding what drives this gap is important. When interest rates fall, or financial conditions become easier, bitcoin tends to benefit more than gold because investors are more willing to take risks. On the other hand, when markets become uncertain, gold often performs better. Inflation can support both assets, but gold usually reacts first. These shifting conditions help explain why bitcoin can sometimes lag gold, even if the broader environment suggests it should be stronger.
The forecast model highlights the following three macro scenarios as most likely over the coming 12 months:
Current continuing: with no new macro shock, the gap between bitcoin and gold closes gradually.
- Inflation shock: gold outperforms first as investors seek safety, and bitcoin catches up later.
- Risk-off: as markets weaken, gold continues to lead, and bitcoin’s recovery is delayed.
- These scenarios highlight that while the opportunity exists, the timing depends heavily on how the macro environment evolves.
It is also important to recognise that this type of analysis is not about short-term trading. The model does not try to predict exactly when prices will move. Instead, it provides a framework for thinking about positioning over time. The gap between bitcoin and gold can close in different ways: gradually if conditions stay stable, more slowly if markets turn cautious, or unevenly if inflation rises sharply. This uncertainty means investors need to be patient and consider the wider economic backdrop.
The opportunity lies in positioning. For example, increasing exposure to bitcoin when it may look cheap relative to gold, or viewing the two assets as complementary parts of a portfolio rather than competitors. The important point is that bitcoin is not replacing gold as they serve different roles. But when the gap between them becomes large, as it is now, it can create opportunities for more informed investment decisions.
