As the UK property market continues to face economic uncertainty, industry professionals are offering their views on the latest HMRC property transaction data for September 2025. While there are signs of stability, the looming Autumn Budget and ongoing policy shifts are keeping both residential and commercial markets on edge.
Experts have weighed in on the potential impacts of these changes, highlighting areas of optimism as well as caution.
Andrew Lloyd, Managing Director at Search Acumen (property data insight and technology provider), comments on HMRC’s property transaction data for September 2025:
“Today’s data shows that homebuyers are continuing to exchange from deals likely arranged in the early part of the year. A steady level of these transactions, up slightly from the usual summer lull, represents a broadly stable residential market. But this is just half a story, with a sharp drop in current buyer activity pre-Budget likely to impact transactional data towards the end of the year. Currently, this is a market in freeze. The typical Autumn bounce is likely to remain lacklustre until tax reform is announced and financial impacts can be weighted, with homeowners hoping Budget day does not turn into fright night.
In a similar vein, commercial transactions remain unseasonably subdued down 2–3% on last year, reflecting continued caution from investors amid higher financing costs and economic uncertainty.
We know prime office demand is stabilising, where secondary office markets are expected to see a decline in value, with a similar pattern happening within industrials. Alternative markets are seeing a growth in transactional trends, particularly in data centers and living sectors.
Like in residential, the big driving force in commercial real estate is policy change. Markets crave certainty with investors often taking a hold position until wider confidence returns. The upcoming announcement on business rates will have a significant impact on London markets, whilst policies on rent reviews and planning will determine some key investor decisions.
With what feels like economic confidence walking on a tight rope until the Budget, it is crucial that the Chancellor outlines reform to stimulate markets, not hold them back. Either way, clarity will be a welcome reprieve after November 26th.
For lawyers, conveyancers, and property professionals, administrative inefficiencies and slow processes continue to extend timelines and increase the risk of deal fall-throughs. In nervous markets, deals are more likely to fall out of bed. Now is the time to get ahead, tighten processes, and reduce risk using AI tools. Greater accuracy and efficiency are important cornerstones in turning cautious activity into sustained recovery.”
Richard Pike, chief sales and marketing officer at Phoebus Software, commented:
“Despite the slight monthly fall in non-seasonally adjusted property transactions in September, the figures show a resilient mortgage market despite the uncertainty surrounding the wider economy. Transactions are up significantly on this time last year, reflecting the improved rate environment. The HMRC data reports completed transactions and so lags real market sentiment by a couple of months, but it does paint a picture of cautious stability among buyers and sellers.
With inflation still stubbornly high, a rate cut looks unlikely next month, and so all eyes are on Rachel Reeves and whether she will make reforms to property taxes in the November budget. This could have a significant impact on transaction activity if stamp duty changes are made. In the meantime, I expect next month’s transaction data to reflect the current uncertainty in the market with many people adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach.”
Nick Hale, CEO at Movera, commented:
“Another strong month in property sales ahead of the Autumn Budget suggests that confidence is returning to the housing market, even amid continued uncertainty.
This rise in seasonally adjusted transactions may reflect growing optimism around recent mortgage rate cuts and a sense that the worst of the slowdown is behind us. However, with the Budget now on the immediate horizon, many will still be waiting to see what clarity the Chancellor brings on property taxation and wider economic policy. Brokers and conveyancers should capitalize on this renewed momentum, ensuring that deals in progress reach completion before any post-Budget market shifts.”
Simon Webb, managing director of capital markets and finance at LiveMore, commented:
“Another increase in seasonally adjusted property transactions is a positive sign that despite reservations about the potential outcomes of the Autumn Budget, there is still significant buyer demand.
With inflation remaining steady at 3.8% for the third month in a row, a base rate cut next week isn’t completely off the cards and would provide some much-needed consistency for buyers still hesitant about whether this is the right time to commit.
The over-50s in particular represent one of the most underserved and financially diverse segments of the market. At LiveMore, we believe the return of market momentum must go hand-in-hand with greater product flexibility and advice tailored to later life. With the right support, older borrowers can play a powerful role in driving market activity – not just as movers or refinancers, but as key enablers of intergenerational wealth and mobility.”
Hamza Behzad, Business Development Director at Finova says:
“Today’s data is a sure sign of the UK housing market’s resilience, which has held strong despite all the Budget chatter. More competitive mortgage rates are boosting first-time buyers, injecting a new bit of urgency into the market. Now that the Renters’ Rights Bill has moved through Parliament – the biggest shift in rental legislation in over 30 years – some landlords are already offloading portfolios, opening up new opportunities for buyers and driving down house prices.
That said, some cautious buyers are waiting it out, particularly with all the talk of higher property taxes and Stamp Duty reform. As the market steels itself for the 26th of November, lenders must continue to invest in technology that enables faster, smarter decision-making. The ability to scale and react at speed will be key to success in today’s dynamic market.”
Joe Pepper, UK Chief Executive Officer, PEXA, said:
“A rise in transactions is a strong indication that affordability is improving and that the market is increasingly meeting the needs of home buyers. It is a sign that the measures being introduced to help improve affordability like the changes to the LTI cap are taking effect – a win for both borrowers and the economy.
This trend will likely continue in next month’s figures too as first time buyers look to push their transaction over the line before any changes to the inheritance tax thresholds rumoured to be announced in the Budget that could well limit the support they can get from the Bank of Mum and Dad.
Driving up completions is a good thing, not just for the market itself but for associated industries as people look to move, renovate and decorate their new home. But the fact is that if we keep seeing a rise in demand month on month, all the benefit will be lost because the infrastructure that sits behind the conveyancing process simply won’t cope with the extra pressure. Yes we should encourage transactions, yes we should encourage people to buy and measures to improve affordability are certainly a positive. But if we don’t start urgently investing in the modernisation of the technology that supports conveyancers, we will lose out on the benefits a vibrant housing market could bring.”
Tony Hall, Head of Business Development at Saffron for Intermediaries, said:
“Today’s figures underscore the housing market’s continued resilience. Despite the summer’s debate around potential stamp duty reforms and the wider political discussion over property taxation, confidence has remained strong in the run-up to next month’s Autumn Budget. With inflation holding steady and speculation mounting over a possible base rate cut, lenders may soon respond with further rate reductions, offering a welcome boost to borrowers.
As we enter a pivotal period of economic and policy change, the upcoming Budget will play a key role in shaping market momentum and buyer sentiment. In the meantime, as anticipation builds, expert guidance will be more important than ever. Brokers will be crucial in helping borrowers navigate uncertainty and make informed, confident decisions in what remains a dynamic and fast-evolving market.”
Nathan Emerson, CEO at Propertymark, comments:
“An overall uplift regarding the volume of property transactions is always welcome news, as it is a key indicator of both consumer confidence and affordability. Despite turbulence within the wider economy, homebuyers have benefitted from three base rate cuts since the start of the year, allowing for much greater financial flexibility for people in many cases.
It is, however, a case of all eyes on the Autum Budget, especially for prospective buyers in England and Northern Ireland, as we learn more on how Stamp Duty may be potentially replaced by a new alternative.
With ambition from all nations across the UK to ensure new housing stock keeps pace with regional demand, it will be important to keep check on milestones and progress across the forthcoming twelve months.”
Reacting to the HMRC transaction data, Melanie Spencer, growth director at Target Group, said:
“At first glance, this might look as though the market is a little more resilient than it has been. I am not sure that’s the case and I am certainly not signing up for any cautious optimism. Remember, these stats don’t count the uncertainty generated in the immediate run-up to the Budget. That has put a real brake on the market. Buyers have been nervous about wealth taxes, council tax re-evaluations, even mansion taxes. That’s why the market has stumbled a bit recently. In the longer term, I am more optimistic given the easing of mortgage costs from lenders like the Halifax. That will help restore some confidence.”
Oli Bland, Director of Lending at Black & White Bridging commented:
“While it might feel like the sector is on pause, the summer slump is firmly in the rearview mirror and demand is building. Transactions are up. So is borrowing.
It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that a further base rate cut is on the horizon.
While some prospective landlords might be waiting to see what comes from Reeve’s budget, and whether landlords will emerge the scapegoat for the country’s finances, serious players are snapping up quick deals. The market is showing signs of recovery after a slow start to what is usually the busiest period in the property calendar as deals are closed before the Christmas break. Lots of bargains are there to be had and we are here to help secure deals in record time allowing for outsized returns for speedy execution.”
Reacting to the HMRC transactions data, Richard Sexton, commercial director of proptech surveyor portal HouzeCheck, said:
“The numbers would be higher if people weren’t hanging back for the Budget. And that doesn’t necessarily make sense. I think there’s next to no chance, for instance, that Rachel Reeves is going to introduce some radical new solution to taxing property – replacing council tax, say, with an annual levy based on a proportion of the value of each home. That would represent a revolutionary overhaul of the way property is taxed: the government doesn’t have the appetite for it. And we’re not going to get a land value tax applied equally to all land, whether or not a house has been built on it – not in a million years.
There is an emotional component to the decision to move home or to buy a house. People make irrational decisions and get scared even when they don’t need to. Once the Budget is out of the way, I think we are going to see a lot of pent-up demand bursting out of the gates.”
