Despite another year dominated by geopolitical uncertainty, private investors believe monetary policy, not global conflict, will have the biggest influence on precious metals prices over the rest of 2026, according to the latest BullionVault Investor Survey.
This comes after downward expectations for UK interest rates came to an abrupt halt, leaving many wondering about the impact of a potentially higher rate environment on their mortgages and broader personal finances.
Money, not war
More than a quarter of precious metals investors (27.7%) said they think monetary policy will be the single biggest driver of precious metals prices during the second half of 2026, comfortably ahead of geopolitics (21.9%), government debt (14.7%) and physical supply and demand (14.0%). Inflation, traditionally viewed as one of gold’s key price drivers, ranked much lower, with just 6.3% of investors believing it will have the biggest impact on prices.
The findings suggest investors are increasingly returning to focus on the decisions and signals coming from central banks, including interest rates, liquidity conditions and the broader monetary backdrop, rather than viewing geopolitical events as the single largest force behind precious metals markets as they have for the previous two years of BullionVault’s survey
That thinking is also reflected in how investors explain gold’s retreat from its New Year highs amid the war in Iran. Rather than blaming conflict in the Middle East or questioning gold’s long-established role as a safe-haven asset, the largest proportion of respondents (27.7%) believe investors have simply taken profits after gold’s strong rally. A further 16.0% attribute the pullback to changing expectations for monetary policy, while only 7.4% believe recent geopolitical events have damaged gold’s safe-haven status. Just 4.8% think markets are now less concerned about geopolitical risks than they were in 2025.
| Reason investors believe precious metals prices have fallen since New Year highs | % of respondents |
| Investors have taken profit and moved on | 27.7% |
| Interest rate expectations flipped from cuts to rises | 16.0% |
| Physical demand has fallen because prices became too high | 12.6% |
| Central banks slowed or reversed their buying | 10.3% |
| It had become a mania and a retreat was inevitable | 9.2% |
| Iran war has tarnished gold’s “safe-haven” status | 7.4% |
| Markets are less concerned about geopolitics than in 2025 | 4.8% |
| Other (including cost of living, speculative betting, don’t know) | 12.1% |
The only way is up
Despite the recent pullback, investors remain more positive on the outlook for precious metals. On average, respondents expect gold prices to finish 2026 13.7% higher than current levels (£3508 per ounce), while silver is forecast to outperform with gains of 16.7% (£52.52 per ounce). Platinum is expected to rise 8.4%, with palladium gaining 7.9%.
The survey also highlights the depth of conviction among today’s precious metals investors. Respondents hold an average of 32% of their investment portfolios in precious metals. Gold remains the foundation of those portfolios, with 90.2% of respondents currently holding gold and 66.5% also owning silver. Smaller allocations are held in platinum (13.9%) and palladium (4.6%).
| Price forecasts for end-2026 (per Troy ounce) | Price forecasts |
| Gold | +13.7% $4665 £3508 |
| Silver | +16.7% $69.69 £52.52 |
| Platinum | +8.4% $1743 £1311 |
| Palladium | +7.9% $1337 £1006 |
“The headlines may be dominated by wars and geopolitical flashpoints, but investors who own precious metals think the biggest influence on bullion prices over the coming months won’t come from the battlefield, but from the world’s central banks.
“That’s quite a shift in thinking from the past two years, when Trump’s election campaign, victory and return to the White House threw geopolitics into the spotlight. Gold has long been seen as the asset that rallies on crisis, yet investors today say it’s monetary policy that matters most. They’re looking beyond the daily headlines and focusing instead on the decisions that shape the cost of money across the global economy.
“The same mindset is reflected in how investors view gold’s recent pullback. Rather than seeing it as evidence that bullion has lost its safe-haven appeal, most simply see investors banking profits after a remarkable run, alongside markets adjusting to changing expectations for monetary policy.”
Adrian Ash, Director of Research at BullionVault
The research also points to a broadening investor base. More than one-third (35.3%) of respondents first invested in precious metals since 2020, including 15.2% who entered the market during 2025 or 2026. At the same time, one in five investors (20.4%) have been investing in precious metals since before the Global Financial Crisis, highlighting a mix of experienced investors and newer entrants to the market.
Ash continued: “Perhaps the strongest vote of confidence isn’t what investors say at all, it’s what they do. On average, respondents have almost one-third of their investment portfolios allocated to precious metals. That’s a significant commitment, and it suggests they continue to view bullion as a strategic long-term holding rather than a short-term reaction to the latest geopolitical crisis.”
