IFS: New disability benefit awards continue to fall but remain well above pre-pandemic levels

In a briefing note released today, the IFS is highlighting that between mid-2021 and mid-2024, the number of monthly new awards for working-age disability benefits (personal independence payment, PIP) in England and Wales, rose from near its pre-pandemic level of 19,000 up to 42,000.

The IFS says that this sharp increase in the number of new awards is the main reason why the number of people receiving working-age disability benefits rose from 2.1 million in 2019–20 to 3.4 million by the start of 2026. Today’s statistics show 27,000 new awards per month in the three months to January 2026 – 8% lower than in the prior quarter and 37% below the level seen during the post-pandemic peak. But this level of new awards is still 38% higher than those seen before the pandemic. Under the OBR’s November 2025 forecast, which assumes that PIP applications decline to below the levels in today’s data but remain above the pre-pandemic norm, real spending on working-age disability benefits, which was £14 billion in 2019–20, is due to rise from £25 billion this year to £32 billion in 2029–30. If that decline in PIP applications does not materialise then spending will rise even more.

Commenting on this, Sam Ray-Chaudhuri, a Research Economist at IFS, says:

“Today’s statistics show a further decline in the number of people starting a disability benefit award each month. They will make easy reading for the government, who have expressed concern about the number of recipients of and spending on these benefits. Only time will tell whether this recent pattern will persist. But even if it does, the fiscal cost of the sharp rise in claimants seen since the pandemic is likely to be long-lasting, as recipients typically stay on these benefits for many years. Indeed, on the latest forecasts, real spending on working-age disability benefits is set to be £32 billion in 2029–30 – £18 billion more than before the pandemic.”