This morning’s HMRC property transactions data for November paints a cooler picture for the UK housing market. The provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate puts the number of residential transactions at 103,330, marking a 3% fall compared with November 2024 and a sharper 12% drop from October 2025.
Industry experts to weigh in on what the slowdown means for buyers, sellers and the outlook for 2026.
Ian Futcher, financial planner at Quilter:
“November’s transaction figures suggest a housing market that is treading water rather than moving decisively in either direction. On a seasonally adjusted basis, residential transactions edged up to 100,350, a 1% increase on October and 8% higher than a year ago, marking the strongest reading since March. While that points to some underlying resilience, it falls short of signalling a meaningful recovery in activity.
The non-seasonally adjusted data tells a more subdued story, with residential transactions down 12% on October and 3% lower than November last year. This reflects a market where many buyers and sellers remained hesitant, particularly as uncertainty lingered ahead of the budget and the festive period approached.
With the budget now out of the way, there is a sense that some of that caution may begin to ease. While the introduction of a mansion tax will affect a narrow part of the market, many buyers may have been relieved that the overall package was less punitive than feared. That release of uncertainty matters for confidence, even if it does not materially change affordability overnight.
As we move into the new year, the convergence of greater post-budget clarity, lower interest rates and a degree of pent-up demand could support a modest improvement in activity. However, stretched affordability and still-elevated borrowing costs mean any resurgence is likely to be gradual rather than dramatic.
Overall, the data points to a market that has stabilised but is waiting for a clearer signal before moving higher. A slow return to more buoyant conditions looks far more likely than any sudden spike in transactions as we head into 2026.”
Tony Hall, Head of Business Development at Saffron for Intermediaries, said:
“Despite the Autumn Budget at the end of November, which introduced tax changes including a high-value council tax surcharge and a 2% rise in property-related tax rates that will impact landlords in the year ahead, there was little immediate disruption to the housing market. It is therefore no surprise that transactions increased as buyers and investors moved to complete purchases ahead of these changes. High-street, specialist and complex lenders continue to develop innovative products to meet borrowers’ needs, while competition across the market is keeping mortgage rates attractive.”
With transactions on the rise, confidence has also been supported by the Bank of England’s decision to cut interest rates to 3.75%, helping to fuel continued optimism across the market. 2026 will be another pivotal year for housing supply and the wider market. It is therefore more important than ever to speak with a mortgage adviser. Securing the right advice early can help borrowers navigate an evolving landscape before political and economic changes begin to take effect.”
Richard Pike, chief sales and marketing officer at Phoebus Software comments: on this morning’s HMRC property transactions data for November, which showed the provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in November 2025 is 103,330, 3% lower than November 2024 and 12% lower than October 2025
The fall in transactions in November perhaps isn’t surprising given the uncertainty in the run-up to the Budget, with many prospective buyers putting their plans on ice in the weeks before. We’ve seen this play through in house prices, with both Nationwide and Halifax this week reporting a fall in house prices and a slowdown in annual growth in December. However, with the Budget out of the way and the Bank of England’s decision to cut the base rate in December, I’m cautiously optimistic that we’ll see volumes gradually increase through 2026.
There’s pent-up demand in the market and lenders are competing fiercely on rates, and this should help feed through into completions over the coming months. After a volatile few years, and with the budget out of the way, I’m hopeful that 2026 will be the year the mortgage market bounces back.”
