Nationwide’s House Price Index data has found that UK house prices increased by 3.2% year-on-year in September. Northern Ireland was the UK’s best performing region, with prices up 8.6% in Q3, while East Anglia was the weakest performing region, with prices down 0.8% over the year.
Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, said:
“UK house prices increased by 0.7% in September, after taking account of seasonal effects. This resulted in the annual rate of growth rising from 2.4% in August to 3.2% in September, the fastest pace since November 2022 (4.4%). Average prices are now around 2% below the all-time highs recorded in summer 2022.
“Income growth has continued to outstrip house price growth in recent months while borrowing costs have edged lower amid expectations that the Bank of England will continue to lower interest rates in the coming quarters. These trends have helped to improve affordability for prospective buyers and underpinned a modest increase in activity and house prices, though both remain subdued by historic standards.
Most regions saw a pick-up in Q3 2024
“Our regional house price indices are produced quarterly, with data for Q3 (the three months to September) indicating that most regions saw a pickup in annual house price growth (see full table on page 4).
“Northern Ireland remained the best performer by some margin, with prices up 8.6% compared with Q3 2023. Scotland saw a noticeable acceleration in annual growth to 4.3% (from 1.4% in Q2), while Wales saw a more modest 2.5% year-on-year rise (from 1.4% the previous quarter).
“Across England overall, prices were up 1.9% compared with Q3 2023. Northern England (comprising North, North West, Yorkshire & The Humber, East Midlands and West Midlands), continued to outperform southern England, with prices up 3.1% year-on-year. The North West was the best performing English region, with prices up 5.0% year-on-year.
“Southern England (South West, Outer South East, Outer Metropolitan, London and East Anglia) saw a 1.3% year-on-year rise. London remained the best performing southern region with annual price growth of 2.0%. East Anglia was the only UK region to record an annual price fall, with prices down 0.8% year-on-year.
Flats still lagging
“Our most recent data by property type reveals that terraced houses have seen the biggest percentage rise in prices over the last 12 months, with average prices up 3.5%. Semi-detached and flats saw increases of 2.8% and 2.7% respectively. Whilst detached houses saw more modest growth of 1.7%.
“If we look over the longer term however, detached homes have continued to have a slight edge over other property types, most likely due to the ‘race for space’ seen during the pandemic. Indeed, since Q1 2020, the price of an average detached property increased by nearly 26%, while flats have only risen by c15% over the same period.
Quarterly Regional House Price Statistics – Q3 2024
Please note that these figures are for the three months to September, therefore will show a different UK average price and annual percentage change to our monthly house price statistics.
Daniel Austin, CEO and co-founder at ASK Partners, said:
“We are continuing to see a month-on-month rise in house prices, which is hopefully the sign of an upward trend developing for the rest of the year. The market certainly appears to be showing signs of resilience. Everyone is waiting in anticipation of what the new government will do to drive construction of new homes and unlock the planning system, and it is likely that initiatives announced in the coming months will give the market a further boost.
“In the property investment world, rent values have seen sustained growth, positioning real estate as reasonably valued in comparison to gilts and presenting growth potential. In the realm of commercial real estate, we have seen values hit the bottom and confidence return. The market has picked up with opportunistic acquisitions of prime properties in prime locations.
“As a debt provider, we hope to support well-capitalised borrowers who understand their product and are looking at the best sites in prime locations with potential to add to their asset value. Following this strategy, we aim to bolster developers’ initiatives with the flexible underwriting approach that is necessary for navigating a changing market. This will enable us to continue to offer opportunities for the growing number of private individuals opting to invest in property debt.”
Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, said:
“As 2024 has progressed, it has been extremely positive to see a firm trend of growth emerge across the year within the housing market. We have seen the economy settle down to a position that provides far greater consumer confidence and although we are still at the very start of the journey regarding base rates, we are starting to see lenders introduce improved competitive offerings when it comes to mortgage deals, which is a firm foundation for confidence and growth over the coming months.”
