NVIDIA: $5 trillion, where now?

Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, highlights NVIDIA’s latest milestone as a fresh test of whether its earnings growth can continue to justify the market’s enthusiasm.

Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown:

“NVIDIA at $5 trillion is a market milestone that demands attention, but the more important question is what happens next. At moments like this, investors can spend too much time looking in the rear-view mirror and not enough time assessing where earnings power is heading. That matters with NVIDIA, because the story now is less about what the shares have already done and more about whether demand, execution, and cash generation can keep outrunning expectations.

This week’s upcoming results from Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon are an important part of this story. As key customers, their investment plans offer important signals on the AI infrastructure buildout and ultimately demand for NVIDIA’s products. We’re not expecting any major overhaul to 2026 capex guidance, but sustained conviction around 2027 investment would reinforce our view that the market still underestimates the durability of NVIDIA’s earnings power.

From today’s starting point, the earnings multiple still looks relatively modest given the scale of the growth on offer. Demand signals across AI infrastructure remain strong, our numbers still point to more upside than broader market expectations imply, and the sheer weight of free cash flow coming through this year continues to strengthen the investment case. None of that removes the risk of volatility, but the combination of strong demand visibility, earnings momentum, and cash generation means we remain supportive of the backdrop from here.”