Regulatory outlook: state pension now perilously close to frozen personal allowance

he following outlines key regulatory and legislative activity impacting on the UK personal finance, pensions and financial planning industry in the coming month. AJ Bell director of public policy, Tom Selby, and head of public policy, Rachel Vahey, are available to discuss any of these topics.

Key things to look out for in April:

Ø  Key changes to household finances: the new tax year brings a raft of personal finance, tax and pensions changes in April, including keeping the deep freeze on most tax thresholds and increasing employer costs through the national insurance (NI) hike and increases to the minimum wage

Ø  The first pension schemes connect to the Pensions Dashboard: the larger pension schemes and most of those regulated by the FCA are due to connect to the Pensions Dashboard by 30 April

  1. State pension increases by 4.1%, but what do unsettled UK finances mean for its future?
  • In April the state pension increased by 4.1% to £11,973 a year – perilously close to the frozen £12,570 personal allowance 
  • The recent Spring Statement outlined that limited flexibility within current government economic plans may prompt them to explore additional adjustments, which may include the state pension
  • The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projects that pensioner spending will rise to £182 billion by the fiscal year 2029-30 in its latest economic and fiscal outlook

Tom Selby, director of public policy at AJ Bell, comments:

“The government is walking a precarious financial tightrope to balance its fiscal rules. With little to no wriggle room built into current plans, it may still be forced to look elsewhere for further savings. And one area that could come under scrutiny is the state pension.

“The biggest proportion of welfare spending is on pensioners. In the OBR’s recent economic and fiscal outlook, this is set to rise by 20% to £182 billion by 2029-30, mainly driven by an ageing population and the triple-lock guarantee. If the government is looking to cut costs, then pensioner spending could be something that moves into the Treasury’s crosshairs in the next few years.

“In practice, it’s not that simple. The Labour Party has pledged to protect the triple-lock guarantee, ensuring state pension increases match earnings or inflation if above 2.5%. But with the state pension rising by 4.1% this month, it’s now at a level perilously close to the personal allowance of £12,570 and should overtake it in a couple of years if things continue, thanks to frozen tax thresholds. At that point the government will have a huge decision to make.

“Any changes to the state pension will be hotly contested. But the crunch time is fast approaching when the government will finally be forced to address the question of how much the state pension should really offer, at what age, and how it can increase payments sustainably each year.”

  1. The starting gun on connecting to the Pensions Dashboard has been fired – when will it launch to the public? 
  • Pensions Dashboards have moved a step closer to becoming reality as most larger pension schemes, including most FCA-regulated schemes, are due to connect to the dashboard by 30 April 2025 (Pensions dashboards: guidance on connection: the staged timetable – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk))
  • Although these larger schemes – including SIPP providers with 5,000 or more members and master trusts with memberships of 20,000 or more – are being asked to connect by 30 April 2025, they are not compelled to do this by law
  • All pension schemes have to connect to the dashboards ecosystem by the final connection date of 31 October 2026
  • The DWP is yet to announce when dashboards will be made available to the general public

Rachel Vahey, head of public policy at AJ Bell, comments:

“Pensions Dashboards will, this month, take a big step towards finally becoming reality. 

“The larger pension schemes – including those operated by SIPP providers with 5,000 or more members and master trusts with memberships of 20,000 or more – will connect to the Pensions Dashboard, enabling them to pass on information on pension scheme members following a request by a customer for all their pension information. 

“This could be the start of the dashboard revolution. Other smaller pension schemes, as well as the state pension and public sector schemes, should soon also follow suit, and eventually most pension schemes should have connected by 31 October 2026.

“Pensions Dashboards have the potential to help millions of people better engage with their pensions. Once they have a complete picture of their pension wealth, people can make important decisions such as whether to contribute more, combine pensions into one, or when and how to take pension income.

“The big question that remains is when will Pensions Dashboards launch to the public? DWP plan on setting a date only when it is confident a very high percentage of members’ pension records can be found, and once the dashboards are working well. Otherwise, it risks the project falling flat on its face if not enough people can find all their pensions, undermining public confidence.”

REGULATORY OUTLOOK: DIARY

This is a summary of key policy and regulatory developments expected this year and beyond. Dates are correct at the time of publishing but are subject to change according to updates issued by regulators, government departments and other relevant bodies.

What When WhoAJ Bell View 
April 2025   
Employers’ National Insurance Contribution rate to increase to 15%, and Secondary Threshold to fall to £5,0006 April 2025HMRCBudget to batter businesses as National Insurance and minimum wage costs rise 
Business Asset Disposal Relief (BADR) for capital gains tax to rise to 14% 6 April 2025HMRCCapital Gains Tax raid will hit small shareholders where it hurts 
Existing scope of agricultural property relief to be extended to land managed under an environment agreement. 6 April 2025HMRC 
Start date for guidance connection dates to pensions dashboards (including for large FCA-regulated firms)30 April 2025DWP/FCASIPPs to connect to the pensions dashboard by 30 April 2025 
Spring / Summer 2025   
FCA to publish consultation paper on Targeted Support on retail investment products (such as ISAs)Spring 2025‘Targeted Support’ reforms could spark UK investment revolution 
Treasury Committee publish the findings of its enquiry into whether the Lifetime ISA remains an appropriate productSpring 2025AJ Bell calls for Lifetime ISA rules changes alongside package of ISA reforms to boost investment 
Treasury expected to publish consultation on simplification of ISAsSpring / Summer 2025HMT Rachel Reeves sets the scene for ISA reform – here’s how she can radically simplify the system and boost UK plc at almost zero cost 
DWP to publish response to consultations on creation of ‘megafunds’ and consolidation of Local Government Pension Schemes, and Pension Schemes Bill (including VfM, UK investment, guided retirement (decumulation options)). Spring 2025 DWPChancellor set to announce pension ‘megafunds’ reforms in maiden Mansion House speech 
Bank of England’s consultation closes on increasing FSCS deposit protection limit to £110,00030 June 2025Bank of England 
HMRC to publish response to Pensions and IHT consultation, and to publish draft legislation (possibly part of ‘L-Day’)Summer 2025AJ Bell calls on chancellor to consider alternatives to IHT on pensions 
Other publications expected in 2025   
FCA to publish detailed rules on Targeted Support Later in 2025FCA‘Targeted Support’ reforms could spark UK investment revolution 
Treasury to publish outcome on ban on cold calling for consumer financial services and products2025 HMTGovernment sets out plans to ban cold-calling for all financial products 
DWP publish Terms of Reference for Phase 2 of the Pensions Review 2025DWPGovernment ‘kicks pensions adequacy review into the long grass’ after Budget employer tax hit 
DWP publish updated transfer regulations changing terms for red and amber flags2025DWP 
Independent Review of planned State Pension Age increases2025 – 2026DWPWhy economic woes may force state pension review 
2026   
Business Asset Disposal Relief (BADR) for capital gains tax to rise to 18% 6 April 2026HMRCCapital Gains Tax raid will hit small shareholders where it hurts 
New IHT rules including combined agricultural and business property £1 million limit for 100% relief from IHT, and 50% relief thereafter 6 April 2026HMRCIHT Reforms spark death tax raid on small businesses and landowners 
SPA to start to increase to 67 Between 6 April 2026 – 5 April 28DWP 
Final connection deadline for pensions dashboards31 October 2026DWPFCA confirms commercial Pensions Dashboards rules but firms in the dark on timescale for delivery AJ Bell Launches Free Pension Finding Tool to Track Down the UK’s £26bn Lost Retirement Savings 
Later on   
Unused pensions to be included in the estate for IHT6 April 2027HMTAJ Bell calls on chancellor to consider alternatives to IHT on pensions 
Income tax thresholds for rest of UK to remain frozen until5 April 2028HMTHow much frozen income tax bands are costing us as OBR reveals another huge increase in tax take 
NMPA rises to 57 (unless protected)6 April 2028HMRC
The final Child Trust Funds mature2 Jan 2029HMRC
ISA annual subscription to remain frozen at £20,000 until 5 April 2030HMRC
IHT nil rate band and residence nil rate band to remain frozen until 5 April 2030HMRCHow two-decade freeze on IHT thresholds could cost your family over £230,000

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