Rising base rate cut odds suit borrowers but strain savers

November 19, 2025

As the likelihood of a base rate cut grows, borrowers could be better off while savers face pressure to find competitive accounts, Moneyfactscompare.co.uk analysis can reveal.

Mortgages

Since inflation has fallen from this year’s peak of 3.8% during September, several lenders have cut fixed rates, as a result the Moneyfacts Average Mortgage rate has fallen from 5.02% to 4.94%.
Meanwhile, the average two-year fixed rate has fallen from 4.98% to 4.88%. The average five-year fixed rate has fallen from 5.02% to 4.93%.
Today’s inflation figures, slowing GDP growth and rising unemployment may make a December base rate cut more likely.

Caitlyn Eastell, Spokesperson at Moneyfactscompare.co.uk, said:

“Since inflation has fallen from this year’s peak of 3.8% during September, the Moneyfacts Average Mortgage Rate has fallen below 5%, which will come as a relief to many borrowers. There have been plenty of lenders dropping their fixed rate deals in recent weeks and by more significant margins, with more possibly on the way. A base rate cut in December is looking increasingly likely; with GDP growth slowing and unemployment rising, this has pushed swap rates near their 30-day lows and reflects the market’s confidence. However, if anything unexpected arises from the upcoming Autumn Budget, it could derail these chances.”

Savings

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 3.6% during October, from 3.8% in September. The Bank of England’s projection rate for inflation during Q4 2026 is 2.5%.
The Moneyfacts Average Savings Rate currently sits at 3.40%, which is lower than inflation, so it is essential that savers shop around to avoid losing money in real terms.
There are currently 1,224 savings accounts that beat inflation* (101 easy access, 118 notice accounts, 85 variable rate ISAs, 297 fixed rate ISAs and 623 fixed rate bonds).
In November 2024, there were 1,629 deals that could beat CPI which was then at 2.3% (October 2024 CPI) and in November 2023, there were 892 deals that could beat CPI which was at 4.6% (October 2023).

Caitlyn Eastell, Spokesperson at Moneyfactscompare.co.uk, said:

“It has been three years since inflation reached its 11.1% peak, and unsurprisingly, there was then not a single savings account that could outpace this. The rising cost of living is a persistent struggle and what would’ve cost £1,000 in 2022 has now risen by over £100, so it’s no surprise that some savers may feel like they’re falling behind despite inflation being lower.

“Today just over one in two accounts offer over 3.6%, but with interest rates trending downward, this number is likely to drop. Competition has been scarce, especially across Cash ISAs, where none of the top rates have shifted. It may be the case that providers are waiting to see what is announced in the Autumn Budget before they make any significant changes. In any case, if savers find they are getting a raw deal, it is crucial they immediately switch to a more competitive rate and if they want more security against cuts, they should consider locking away their cash for a fixed period.”

Savings market analysis
Top savings deals at £10,000 gross	15-Nov-23	20-Nov-24	22-Oct-25	Today
Easy access account	Ulster Bank – 5.20%	Principality BS – 4.85%	Sidekick – 4.43% (includes bonus)	Sidekick – 4.43% (includes bonus)
Notice account	Shawbrook Bank – 5.56% (120-day)	Charter Savings Bank– 5.06% (95-day)	Earl Shilton BS – 4.50% (180-Day, includes bonus)	Earl Shilton BS – 4.50% (180-Day)
One-year fixed rate bond	Metro Bank – 5.91%	Ahli United Bank (UK) plc (Raisin UK) – 4.80%**	Marcus by Goldman Sachs® – 4.55%	LHV Bank – 4.46%
Two-year fixed rate bond	JN Bank – 5.80%	SmartSave – 4.61%	JN Bank – 4.42%	FirstSave – 4.45%
Three-year fixed rate bond	JN Bank – 5.90%	UBL UK – 4.61% (payable on maturity)	DF Capital – 4.47%	Secure Trust Bank – 4.40%
Four-year fixed rate bond	JN Bank – 5.60%	UBL UK – 4.54% (payable on maturity)	UBL UK – 4.54% (payable on maturity)	UBL UK – 4.54% (payable on maturity)
Five-year fixed rate bond	JN Bank – 5.60%	UBL UK – 4.64% (payable on maturity)	UBL UK – 4.64% (payable on maturity)	UBL UK – 4.64% (payable on maturity)
**Islamic bank, pays an expected profit rate. Inflation announcement dates. Top rates exclude deals with restrictive criteria. Notice accounts exclude those over 180 days.Source: Moneyfactscompare.co.uk

ISA market analysis
Top savings deals at £10,000 gross	15-Nov-23	20-Nov-24	22-Oct-25	Today
Easy access ISA	Gatehouse Bank – 5.15%**	Moneybox – 5.17%	Plum – 4.40% (includes bonus)	Plum – 4.40% (includes bonus)
Notice ISA	Mansfield BS – 5.30% (180-day)	West Brom BS – 4.85% (60-day)	Tipton & Coseley BS 4.10% – (60 Day)	Tipton & Coseley BS 4.10% – (60 Day)
One-year fixed rate ISA	Virgin Money – 5.85%	Shawbrook Bank – 4.49%	Vida Savings– 4.28%	Vida Savings– 4.28%
Two-year fixed rate ISA	UBL UK – 5.55% (payable on maturity)	State Bank of India – 4.50%	UBL UK – 4.25% (payable on maturity)	UBL UK – 4.25% (payable on maturity)
Three-year fixed rate ISA	Castle Trust Bank – 5.15%	UBL UK – 4.52% (payable on maturity)	UBL UK – 4.29% (payable on maturity)	UBL UK – 4.29% (payable on maturity)
Four-year fixed rate ISA	UBL UK – 4.93% (payable on maturity)	UBL UK – 4.30% (payable on maturity)	UBL UK – 4.25% (payable on maturity)	UBL UK – 4.25% (payable on maturity)
Five-year fixed rate ISA	UBL UK – 5.04% (payable on maturity)	UBL UK – 4.50% (payable on maturity)	UBL UK – 4.59% (payable on maturity)	UBL UK – 4.59% (payable on maturity)
**Islamic bank, pays an expected profit rate. Inflation announcement dates. Top rates exclude deals with restrictive criteria. Notice ISAs exclude those over 180 days.Source: Moneyfactscompare.co.uk

*Data note: Please note that these savings product numbers include deals that are available to UK residents (easy access accounts, notice accounts, fixed rate bonds, variable Cash ISAs and fixed Cash ISAs) and exclude regular savers, children’s savers, variable rate fixed term bonds or ISAs, JISAs and LISAs, based on a £10,000 deposit, gross rates. Higher rates may be available for other levels of deposit.