Emerging markets defy expectations and lead global equity market gains one year on from Liberation Day tariff announcement

Aberdeen, the global asset manager, reveals emerging markets have outperformed other major markets since President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs were announced, defying expectations that they would disrupt sentiment.

Over the past year, investors have had to navigate an extraordinary amount of noise, uncertainty and worry. Whilst market behaviour shouldn’t be judged on a single year of data, new analysis from Aberdeen proves a useful reminder that headlines don’t always dictate outcomes.

Aberdeen looked at where six main global markets performed between market close on 2 April 2025, the day of President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs announcement, and a year later on 27 March 2026. Aberdeen compared the percentage change to see how markets have fared at a time when markets and geopolitics seem more intertwined than ever and found the numbers can occasionally tell a different story.

Global equity markets generally saw strong gains over the period but the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was the strongest performer, rising 26%, followed by the FTSE 100 at 16% and the FTSE World at 14.1%.

The S&P 500 delivered 9.6% increase, while the Dow Jones and DAX saw more modest gains of 4.4% and 3.1% respectively.

Overall, most major indices experienced positive momentum, with emerging markets leading the way.

Equity Market Close 2 April 2025 and 27 March 2026

Source;  Factset, Bloomberg 27.03.26

Commenting on equity markets Ben Ritchie, Head of Developed Markets Equities, at Aberdeen Investments, added:

“Over the past year, investors have had to make sense of an awful lot of noise and uncertainty on top of the human impact of global events. Whilst we’d never want to draw big conclusions from a single year of market data, our analysis is interesting and this period has been a good reminder that headlines don’t always tell the full story. Even at a time when markets and geopolitics feel more tangled than ever, the numbers can sometimes point to something different.

Our big call has been to encourage investors to diversify their equity allocations and to that end it is pleasing to see markets other than the US lead the way during a time of significant uncertainty.”

Reflecting on the last year and what lies ahead Jon Butcher, Senior US Economist, at Aberdeen said;

“A year after Liberation Day, the US economy has shown resilience despite a clear cooling in the labour market. Hiring slowed sharply in the months following the tariff announcement, as businesses took stock of higher costs and policy uncertainty. Even so, growth held up better than expected as households kept spending and business investment accelerated. Tariffs did push up inflation, but the impact has been slower and smaller than the market initially feared.

“The policy landscape, however, has become even more uncertain. The Supreme Court’s IEEPA ruling has thrown the future of the tariff regime into question, and efforts to rebuild parts of it through other policy tools have left companies unsure of the long‑term rules of the game. For markets, the bigger risk is the growing perception among global investors that the US is becoming a less reliable destination for capital. Concerns about policy volatility, central bank independence, and fiscal strain have risen. And while the focus has shifted to the Iran crisis and energy prices, tariffs remain a critical unresolved factor shaping how international capital views the US.”