The latest HMRC property transaction data points to a modest month-on-month slowdown in completed residential sales, with seasonally adjusted transactions falling 3% between March and April. However, annual comparisons remain significantly higher due to the distortion caused by last year’s Stamp Duty deadline, underlining the importance of looking beyond the headline figures.
Industry experts share what the latest HMRC data means moving forward:
“UK residential property transactions came in at 98,450 on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, down 2% on April but 17% higher than a year ago.
While the annual comparison appears encouraging, it is heavily skewed by the distortions caused by last year’s Stamp Duty changes, which depressed activity in spring 2025 as buyers rushed through purchases to beat the deadline earlier than normal. As such, the year-on-year increase overstates the underlying strength of the housing market.
A clearer picture emerges when this is viewed alongside yesterday’s Bank of England’s money and credit data. This points to a marked slowdown in housing activity feeding into the pipeline.
Net mortgage borrowing fell to £2.9 billion from £4.4 billion, while approvals for house purchases declined to 56,200. Taken together, this suggests demand is being pushed out rather than building, as households hold back from making long-term financial commitments given an uncertain economic backdrop.
The market is not short of underlying demand, but a significant proportion of buyers are choosing to delay decisions in the face of affordability pressures and uncertainty around the path of interest rates.
These figures are also inherently backwards-looking, reflecting deals agreed earlier in the year. More recent developments, including heightened geopolitical tensions and the subsequent volatility in swap rates and mortgage pricing, are not yet fully captured. While the emergence of a ceasefire may provide some reassurance and could prompt a modest uptick in buyer interest, the outlook remains fragile.
In reality, many prospective buyers are likely to continue sitting on their hands. The experience of repeated shifts in mortgage pricing has made households more cautious, and there remains a strong preference to wait for clearer signs that borrowing costs are on a sustained downward path and that the wider environment is more stable before committing.
Activity is no longer being artificially altered by policy changes, but nor is it benefiting from the conditions needed for a sustained recovery. Until mortgage rates show a clearer downward trajectory and confidence returns, transaction volumes are likely to remain constrained, with any improvement gradual rather than decisive.
Karen Noye, mortgage expert at Quilter
“With higher transaction levels year on year, we are seeing buyers taking advantage of lower mortgage rates along with more flexibility on the part of lenders. The more muted month-on-month transaction figures may be down to some uncertainty around the Government leadership, along with ongoing macro factors including the Middle East war.
With a new Prime Minister imminent, the market is facing a slightly uncertain few months with the possibility of further taxes. Hopefully some common sense and a drive in the economy can weather any extreme changes.”
Tomer Aboody, director of specialist lender MT Finance
“Transactions are always a better measure of market health than more volatile prices. Although these figures reflect decision-making principally from a few months ago, they confirm what we have been seeing in our offices – it is harder to generate commitment and momentum, particularly while uncertainty remains over economic prospects and especially mortgage rates.
Looking forward, the outlook is not particularly promising now that additional political concerns have been added to the mix. However, those needing to move after negotiating as hard as possible are continuing for the most part, albeit often frustratingly slowly.”
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman
“May’s data continues the trend of a slowdown in transactions, mirroring mortgage approvals data released yesterday. It shouldn’t come as a huge surprise given the clear headwinds the market and wider economy is facing and the impact this has had on both buyer and seller confidence.
Buoyed by the central bank’s decision to hold the base rate once again, we have seen swap rates stabilise and lenders continue to come to the table with rate reductions.
Lenders are facing a delicate balance right now between staying vigilant and remaining competitive – keeping a close eye on their pricing and market share as they look ahead to their end-of-year lending targets.
With the help of expert advice, there are still opportunities out there for borrowers – particularly as lenders continue to price more competitively and innovate in their products and criteria.
Responding to a rapidly changing mortgage market requires lenders to be agile and able to move at pace. Digital transformation will therefore remain a key priority across the market, identifying the right technical partners and implementing efficient, scalable and tech-enabled processes to meet the needs of a changing market and customer base.”
Melanie Spencer, growth director at Target Group
“Today’s figures reflect a housing market that continues to move despite ongoing economic uncertainty.
“When transaction volumes remain elevated, maintaining momentum through the home-buying process becomes increasingly important. Valuations and surveys are one of the key stages where delays can have a knock-on effect, so ensuring they are delivered quickly and consistently is essential for keeping transactions on track.”
The challenge isn’t simply having the capacity to cope with higher instruction volumes. It’s doing so without compromising quality or creating unnecessary friction. Firms that have invested in operational efficiency and robust quality assurance are better placed to provide the certainty the market needs.
As market conditions continuously evolve, the focus should remain on removing avoidable delays from the property transaction process. Faster, more consistent surveying doesn’t just benefit individual buyers. It helps improve confidence and efficiency across the wider housing market.”
Richard Sexton, commercial director at Houzecheck
“An increase in May’s transaction volumes (in all except seasonally adjusted vs April 2026) suggest the market has remained more resilient than many expected given the ongoing geopolitical conflict.
Our own data has consistently shown that buyer demand has held up better than the headlines might suggest, with sales agreed still running ahead of both 2023 and 2024 levels. However, we did see sales agreed in May down 8.1% YoY so the market will be hoping that’s a temporary dip rather than a long-term pattern.
“For lenders, the more encouraging trend is the improvement in overall market conditions. Supply of homes coming to market is at its highest level in at least a decade, giving borrowers more choice, while transaction prices remain broadly stable and fall-through rates continue to improve.
Those are all positive indicators for a healthier lending market. The key question now is whether this momentum can be sustained.”
Colin Bradshaw, CEO of TwentyCi
“An increase in both month-on-month and year-on-year figures for non-seasonally adjusted housing transactions is an encouraging sign that buyers and sellers continue to have the confidence to move despite ongoing economic pressures. Our member agents are reporting that well-priced homes continue to attract strong interest, particularly where there is a good choice of stock available.
However, maintaining this momentum will depend on improving housing supply and creating greater certainty for consumers. Stable economic conditions, affordable borrowing, and policies that support homeownership are all essential if we are to keep the market moving and give people the confidence to make long-term decisions.”Nathan Emerson, CEO at Propertymark
“It’s worth being cautious about reading too much into May’s rise. These completions largely reflect offers made in the spring, before the conflict in the Middle East had much bearing on borrowing costs or sentiment, so they’re more a snapshot of where things stood a few months ago than where they stand now.
Since March, the calculation for borrowers has got harder, not easier. The rate cuts the market was pricing in for this year haven’t happened, and average mortgage rates have moved up rather than down. That’s the detail that matters more than this month’s headline number, because it’s what June, July and August completions will start to reflect.
It also reinforces why we’re not expecting a rush back to the market. Anyone sitting on a fixed rate they secured in the last couple of years has very little incentive to give it up and borrow at today’s higher cost just to move. Second charge lending is increasingly how those homeowners are funding the work they’d otherwise have moved for.”
Ryan McGrath, Director of Second Charge Mortgages at Pepper Money
