September marked a reset in digital assets as Bitcoin regained leadership and Ethereum’s momentum faded. With macro signals muted and micro catalysts taking center stage, Roberto Rossignoli of Moneyfarm unpacks how market structure, regulation, and ecosystem fundamentals shaped performance — and what it means for investors ahead.
September presented a reversal of the divergent performance seen last month across digital assets. Bitcoin demonstrated notable resilience, leading the market in a manner consistent with its established role. Conversely, Ethereum’s recent period of outperformance concluded, aligning with historical patterns of cyclical volatility.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the environment appeared favorable for supply-constrained assets like Bitcoin. However, the widely anticipated 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve had a muted impact, as it was largely priced in by the market. Furthermore, mounting uncertainty in the final week of the month surrounding a potential US government shutdown contributed to the broader “dedollarization” narrative, which remains the macro backbone of the Bitcoin narrative.
On a micro level, positive news flow provided a significant tailwind for specific ecosystems. The Binance ecosystem, in particular, benefited from strong fundamental developments, which was directly reflected in the robust performance of its native asset.
Fonte: Elaborazione Moneyfarm
Correlations that matter
In September, Bitcoin exhibited a significant decorrelation from major asset classes. A brief spike in its correlation with gold quickly reversed as the precious metal rallied while Bitcoin’s price stalled. Concurrently, its relationship with the US Dollar moved towards zero from a previously negative correlation, reflecting subdued volatility and a lack of clear direction in foreign exchange markets.
A slight negative correlation with projections for short-term US interest rates persisted, which remains a noteworthy dynamic ( as the rate moves lower, bitcoin tends to increase). Ultimately, this widespread decorrelation is logical in a month where micro-level catalysts, rather than macroeconomic trends, were the primary drivers of performance. This behavior strengthens our case for Bitcoin as a decorrelated asset.
The Macro: beware the meme
We all have seen memes popular in the crypto fan-base with Powell, the FED Governor, printing dollar from a money printing machine, with the implicit assertion that it would be bullish for Crypto Assets.
Reality is, as usual, more complex. To illustrate this, we compare Bitcoin’s price with a proxy for monetary policy expectations: the spread between two Overnight Index Swaps (OIS). A rising spread indicates a more hawkish outlook (expecting hikes or fewer cuts), while a falling spread signals a more dovish policy stance. Counter-intuitively, over the past two years, Bitcoin has often rallied precisely as the market priced in a more hawkish (or a less dovish) Federal Reserve. The recent rally also coincided with a mild hawkish repricing, although the latest Fed cut may introduce some bias into this data. While one could argue this is linked to inflation scares, the evidence remains inconclusive.
This analysis shows it is still premature to draw firm links between macroeconomic variables and Bitcoin’s price. Price action clearly indicates that regulatory and industry-specific catalysts have been far more influential. Key drivers have included the US spot Bitcoin ETF approvals (Spring 2024), the US election results (November 2024), and the tariff backtrack that spurred risk-on sentiment from March 2025. In this context, developments such as the preview of the GENIUS Act are likely to be far more significant for the asset class.
The Micro
On the micro front, several key narratives shaped market dynamics in September and early October, highlighting a tension between different investor cohorts and still a favourable backdrop for crypto assets.
- On-Chain Dynamics: A Tug-of-War: A primary on-chain theme was the conflict between long-term holders taking profits and institutions accumulating. Significant selling pressure from “whale” wallets, which had distributed approximately 150,000 BTC since late August, finally began to dissipate. Glassnode data confirms this, showing a decline in transfers from whales to exchanges, implying selling pressure is easing. This distribution was also visible among the broader cohort of long-term holders (wallets holding >155 days). Acting as a powerful counterforce, institutional accumulation continued unabated. The Bitcoin supply held by public companies and ETPs steadily climbed, accounting for nearly 12.5% of the total and absorbing liquidity from sellers.
- Ecosystem Focus: Binance and User Activity: Activity within specific ecosystems remained a critical performance driver. The BNB Chain, for example, continued to attract attention following the recent explosive growth of its decentralized derivatives platforms. This highlights a market increasingly focused on ecosystems that can demonstrate tangible user activity and sustainable transaction volumes, rewarding them with capital inflows.
- The Regulatory Horizon: The GENIUS Act On the regulatory front, the market continued to digest the preview of the GENIUS Act. This proposed framework for stablecoins by the US Treasury is a landmark development. By creating a clearer regulatory pathway, the Act could bolster a foundational component of the digital asset ecosystem, potentially reducing systemic risk and encouraging further institutional adoption.
The flows
Investment flows in September mirrored the market’s divergent performance, showing a clear rotation of capital between the two major assets. After a period of intense demand, inflows into Ethereum-focused products normalized. In contrast, Bitcoin investment vehicles rebounded, attracting renewed interest after a weaker performance in August. Despite this rotation, aggregate capital flows into the digital asset class remained robust. The overall trend points to sustained investor demand, albeit at a more moderate and sustainable pace.
