Iran conflict: Market pressures will not unwind quickly despite Trump’s pause 

Patience and discipline remain essential for investors, says Rathbones’ John Wyn Evans, Head of Market Analysis
Markets drifting lower day‑by‑day in absence of resolution, yet any credible hint of a ceasefire could trigger sharp, sudden rebound.

John Wyn Evans, Head of Market Analysis at Rathbones, one of the UK’s leading wealth and asset management groups, said: 

“Trump’s decision to postpone further strikes on Iran has given markets a brief pause, but is not necessarily a meaningful step towards full de‑escalation. If anything, the delay underscores just how delicately balanced the situation has become. Both sides appear to be probing for advantage, and the signals coming out of Tehran suggest Iran remains willing to absorb significant pain rather than back down quickly. That alone differentiates this crisis from previous episodes where Washington has been able to ‘escalate to de‑escalate’.

“For investors, this creates an unusually asymmetric landscape. In normal times, equities tend to drift higher while we remain wary of sudden shocks. Today the dynamic is inverted: each day without resolution exerts a slow downward pull on markets, yet the potential for a sharp squeeze higher remains very real if there is even a hint of a credible ceasefire. Trump’s pause only reinforces that optionality, not because it increases the probability of peace, but because markets are conditioned to seize on any reduction in headline risk, however temporary.

“The more substantive concerns sit beneath the surface. Energy markets remain vulnerable, particularly refined products and natural gas, where supply disruptions are already feeding into higher input costs. Even if hostilities were to ease, damaged infrastructure and constrained shipping channels mean these pressures won’t unwind quickly. That feeds directly into inflation expectations, political pressure in the US, and ultimately the limits of how long Washington can sustain its current approach.

“Against this backdrop, patience and discipline remain essential. Our portfolios are built with these conditions in mind: resilient enough to absorb volatility, but flexible enough to capture opportunities when clarity finally emerges. This isn’t a moment for complacency – but neither is it a moment for panic.”