Retail sales slump as consumers brace for Budget blues

Retail sales fell 1.1% in October—the first decline since May—as shoppers held back for Black Friday deals. AJ Bell’s Danni Hewson highlights how Budget-related uncertainty is prompting consumers to delay spending, even as three-month sales remain supported by strong clothing and tech demand in September.

Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis, comments on the latest retail sales figures:

“This is the second October in a row when retailers have had to attempt to drum up the festive spirt whilst consumers were bracing for Budget blues. 

“The constant pitch rolling from the government this year has created so much uncertainty, it’s hardly surprising that shoppers are keeping their powder dry. Whether they will feel confident enough to make those big-ticket purchases during this year’s Black Friday sales is a question that must be keeping retailers up at night.

“This period is supposed to be the ‘Golden Quarter’ when businesses make enough cash to see them through the new year blues, so many will be questioning the chancellor’s decision to hold this Budget so late in the year. 

“The rather un-British summer did help clothing retailers in particular, and the launch of new tech persuaded some people to splash out in September as the month delivered better sales than had previously been thought. 

“Whilst retailers might have cast Rachel Reeves in the role as 2025’s Grinch, the Bank of England could ride to the rescue with a rate cut before Christmas to potentially help loosen people’s purse strings just in time for the big day.”