Macmillan Cancer Support and Scottish Widows have worked together on a groundbreaking initiative projecting how cancer prevalence in the UK is expected to change between 2025 and 2045.
Drawing on Scottish Widows’ actuarial expertise and informed by Macmillan’s extensive insight and experience supporting people living with cancer, the report reveals how many people may be living with cancer in the decades to come, with a projected 58% increase in cancer prevalence across the UK in the next 20 years.
This means that in 2045, a projected 5.4 million people will be living with cancer, compared to 3.4 million people today.
Preparing for a growing cancer challenge
At a time when cancer is touching more people’s lives than ever before, these insights are designed to help health services, governments, and charities understand what people living with cancer will need in the future, and how best to support them.
A shared commitment to better care and financial resilience
The publication of this report reflects the unwavering commitment from Macmillan to spark a revolution in cancer care in the years to come, and an encouragement from Scottish Widows for individuals to financially prepare for potential future health challenges.
As well as providing insight into how cancer may impact people in the coming years, it also provides insight that workplaces can use to support workforces where staff have increased experiences of cancer, both directly and within families and communities.
Expert insight: Macmillan Cancer Support
Professor Richard Simcock, Chief Medical Officer, Macmillan Cancer Support, said: “This new report, and the projections underpinning it, provide an invaluable resource for healthcare systems, policymakers and cancer charities to think about how we can best support living with cancer in the decades to come.
This report comes at a pivotal moment for cancer care in the UK. We are proud to have been involved in the development of the new National Cancer Plan for England, joining Scotland and Northern Ireland in bold ambitions to revolutionise care and treatment. Cancer is experienced in homes, workplaces and communities, not just in hospitals, and support must meet people where they are. By understanding the scale and impact of cancer today and in the years ahead, we can advocate for the system‑wide change needed to ensure everyone gets the support they deserve.
Through our services, from our Support Line to our work with all four governments in the UK, we remain committed to ensuring that every person living with cancer in the UK, now and tomorrow, receives the best support available.”
Financial preparation for the future
Rose St Louis, Protection Director at Scottish Widows, said: “Every person’s experience of cancer is unique, but I believe there’s one thing we can make universal: removing money worries from an already overwhelming time. That starts with planning early and being willing to have those uncomfortable conversations before life forces them upon us. And with an additional two million people projected to be living with cancer by 2045, our collective responsibilities, personal, professional, legal and regulatory, have never been clearer. We cannot sleepwalk into this future; preparation must start now.
It remains a privilege to work with Macmillan on research that has the potential to make such a meaningful difference. By combining our expertise with their extraordinary insight, we can help more people feel informed, supported and financially prepared for whatever the future brings.”
Key statistics
- The number of people living with cancer in the UK is projected to increase by 58% over the next 20 years
- In 2045, we estimate there will be 5.4 million people living with cancer, compared with 3.4 million in 2025 – an increase of 2 million people
- This means that by 2045, around 7-8% of the population in each UK nation will be living with cancer, compared with around 5% today
- The increases in the numbers of people living with cancer will be partly driven by population growth and ageing, and due to people living longer after diagnosis, but are also linked to increases in the likelihood of being diagnosed with cancer over time for certain age groups and types of cancer
- Our projections show the four most prevalent types of cancer in the UK in 2045 will be:
- Female breast cancer (1.4 million women and people assigned female at birth)
- Prostate cancer (1.1 million men and people assigned male at birth)
- Colorectal cancer (580,000 people)
- Melanoma (558,000 people)
- While lung cancer is still one of the most common types of cancer in the UK in terms of new diagnoses each year, it has a substantially lower survival rate than these other four cancer types, which means it accounts for a lower proportion of total cancer prevalence
- The number of people living with cancer in each of the four UK nations in 2045 is projected to be as follows:
- England: 4.6 million people
- Scotland: 448,000 people
- Wales: 236,000 people
- Northern Ireland: 146,000 people
