Alix Chosson, Lead ESG Analyst – Environmental Investments & Research at Candriam, provides her expectations ahead of COP28:
“This year’s COP conference is extremely important, as the first global assessment of climate action is due to be drawn up and approved. Unfortunately, we already know the conclusions, and they are not good ones. We are not at all in line with the objectives of the Paris Agreement, and the window for action is shrinking very fast. The real question of this COP is how countries will respond to this assessment.
“Unfortunately, there are divergent views on how to respond to the lack of climate action. There are several stumbling blocks in the way of climate actions: the thorny issue of the role of fossil fuels, common but differentiated responsibilities, and the support that developed economies should be providing to developing countries.
“At COP28, the issue of loss and damage will have to be discussed, with the need to clarify the operation of the fund dedicated to loss and damage. This is much more a political issue than a methodological one.
“One potential success, which seems realistic even if not a foregone conclusion, could be a joint, quantified commitment to more rapid deployment of renewable energies. The facts are clear, as the IEA has pointed out: we need to triple rate of deployment by 2030. While the deployment of solar power is almost in line with a net zero scenario, the deployment of wind power has had more difficulty in the context of inflation and rising interest rates.
“Any increased visibility that governments might provide on the acceleration of their commitments to renewable energy would be positive for the industry and for the transition. It is also crucial that these deployments take place more quickly in developing countries, which again raises the question of financing and responsibilities.
“Finally, it is clear that the fossil fuel sector will take centre stage in Dubai. We are hearing rumours that the focus could be more on decarbonising the sector (i.e. operational emissions, scope 1&2) rather than on the subject of emissions induced by the sector indirectly, in particular during the combustion of fossil fuels, i.e. the famous scope 3.
“It is absolutely essential that priority be given to credible alternatives to fossil fuels (renewable energies, electric mobility), rather than to a highly technological vision that focuses on capture and compensation solutions. The IPCC keeps repeating that “drastic changes” are needed if we are to achieve our climate objectives. It is high time for COP28 to serve as a beacon for this transition, and to show us a future that is no longer fossil-based. Otherwise, unfortunately, the window of opportunity for action on the +1.5°C target will close even before 2030.”
