HRMC has published the latest property transactions data from March, with the latest data including that the provisional non-seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in March 2023 is 94,870, 14% lower than March 2022 and 26% higher than February 2023. Industry experts have given their views and opinions on the data, these can be found below:
Bob Singh of Uxbridge-based mortgage broker, Chess Mortgages: “After the bird-strike mini-Budget, the aftershock immediately fed through into market sentiment and demand fell off sharply. But as the markets stabilised during the closing stages of the fourth quarter, things have gradually improved to the stage where there is an acceptance that rates are as low as can be for the time being. This stabilisation in the markets and rates may well be reflected in the fact transaction levels in March were up on February. The prospect that we will likely see lower rates once inflation has been tamed has given the property market further confidence. It’s still a buyers’ market and motivated sellers are agreeing sales at lower prices to exit the market. Transaction levels are increasing steadily, as sub-4% rates are available.”
Paul Neal of Derbyshire-based broker, Missing Element Mortgage Services: “There seems to be a bit of a lull in the market at the moment, with so much economic uncertainty and inflation still frighteningly high. That being said, we have seen a slight increase in market activity during the past 12 weeks, which may reflect the uptick in transaction levels compared to February. However, the problem remains a shortage of stock on the market, and the fact that the stock that is out there is moving very slowly. Many people appear to be waiting for a drop in prices and interest rates but are overlooking the fact that lower interest rates will ignite demand, driving prices up again. In short, the current market is a great time to buy.”
Gary Bush, financial adviser at the Potters Bar-based MortgageShop.com: “The went-a-bit-too-far mini-Budget slammed the brakes on the property market and led to the annual festive slowdown arriving early at the end of 2022. Fast forward to what is almost May 2023 and we have seen a remarkable comeback from property hunters, with stories of buyers in the double digits once again chasing the good property stock that comes to market. This may be evidenced by the marginal increase in transaction levels last month compared to February. Inflation still being higher than expected will likely see a base rate increase on May 11th of 0.25%, potentially 0.5%.”
Riz Malik, director of Southend-on-Sea-based R3 Mortgages: “As homeowners continue to face financial challenges and lack of confidence, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the property market to bounce back. We are currently surfing an erratic wave, unclear of its final destination and how hard it is going to break. The essential actors capable of resolving the crisis work at No.10 Downing Street, but given their track record to date, it appears they’ve relocated to Sesame Street.”
Graham Cox, founder of the Bristol-based broker, SelfEmployedMortgageHub.com: “Mortgage approvals fell off a cliff late last year, about 45% lower than the year before. So it’s unlikely completed transaction levels will improve much for a while. Overall, there’s no doubt the housing market is flat. Buyers are wary of overpaying, and there are still far too many vendors holding out for silly money. With one or two more base rate rises mooted, there’s a Mexican stand-off playing out. But as more sellers put their properties on the market over the coming months, prices will fall sharply.”
Ross McMillan, owner at Glasgow-based Blue Fish Mortgage Solutions: “The ill-fated mini-Budget crashed through the property market nationwide and undoubtedly brought it to a screeching halt for the remainder of 2022. The recorded sales, or lack thereof, that relate to that period are only now filtering through to the registered transactions and so it’s inevitable that the numbers for March this year are significantly down on the same month in 2022. It’s clear that there is significant divergence in activity across local areas but, in general, it would appear that buyers and sellers have adapted to the new norm and the higher interest rates that now accompany this. The Scottish market certainly has signs of heat within it in many areas and as we are now well into the traditionally busy and critical spring/summer period, it appears that, despite the fairly dismal weather, there are definite signs of a thawing out of the Truss-induced market freeze.”
