As markets digest the implications of renewed trade tensions, Andrew Chorlton, Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income at M&G, offers insights on the recent volatility and the shifting narrative around inflation, central bank policy, and credit markets.
Chorlton noted that while the negative implications of trade barriers on economic growth are relatively clear, the outlook for inflation—and consequently, central bank responses—remains highly uncertain.
“This uncertainty is perhaps best illustrated by the evolving commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell,” Chorlton said. “In early April, Powell characterised the inflationary impact of tariffs as transitory—a one-off spike in prices. Yet, just days later, he conceded that the effects of tariffs on both inflation and employment remain unclear, prompting a more cautious, ‘wait and see’ stance.”
Despite this ambiguity, Chorlton emphasised the Fed’s clear resolve to manage inflation expectations, reiterating that its dual mandate prioritizes employment and inflation—not equity markets. However, he acknowledged that investor sentiment suggests a more dire outlook for growth. “The market is now pricing in five rate cuts from the Fed in 2025,” he observed, a reflection of mounting recessionary fears.
Chorlton also addressed broader market conditions, noting that M&G’s fixed income teams had been growing increasingly wary of the narrow risk premium in credit markets.
“For several months, we’ve seen credit spreads hovering around their most expensive levels since the Global Financial Crisis, pricing in a lot of good news with limited buffer for negative surprises,” he said. “This optimism even spilled over into government bonds, with little to no slowdown priced in—creating what we saw as attractive valuations in certain areas.”
According to Chorlton, the magnitude of recent market moves can be partly attributed to this mispricing. “The market wasn’t fully prepared for this correction. The starting point—marked by expensive spreads and complacent positioning—undoubtedly contributed to the speed and scale of the sell-off.”
He concluded by reaffirming M&G’s defensive posture. “Our value-driven approach ensured we entered this period of volatility well positioned. Our strategies were aligned defensively ahead of Liberation Day, and we believe this positions us strongly to navigate what could be a turbulent period ahead for fixed income investors.”
