Investors are treating the IPOs of OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX as part of the same AI boom. They shouldn’t.
This is the warning from the CEO of deVere Group, as OpenAI filed confidentially for a US initial public offering, days after rival Anthropic took the same step, and as investor demand for SpaceX’s blockbuster listing reportedly runs at roughly double the shares on offer.
It comes following a remarkable week on Wall Street that signals a new phase in the artificial intelligence race.
OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX are all seeking access to public capital markets as competition intensifies and the cost of building the future rises sharply.
It’s reported that OpenAI could seek a valuation of up to $1 trillion, while Anthropic’s latest funding round valued it at $965 billion, and SpaceX is targeting a record-breaking valuation of around $1.75 trillion.
Nigel Green of deVere Group says: “Too many investors are looking at OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX and seeing one trade. I believe that’s a mistake.
“These are three fundamentally different businesses with three very different paths to creating shareholder value.”
He continues: “OpenAI is the biggest name in AI. It introduced AI to hundreds of millions of people, and built one of the most recognised brands in tech.
“But being the most famous company and being the best investment are not necessarily the same thing.”
The ChatGPT creator reported more than 900 million weekly active users earlier this year and around 50 million consumer subscribers.
Revenue has accelerated dramatically, yet the company has also indicated profitability is unlikely before the end of the decade as it continues investing heavily in infrastructure and model development.
“OpenAI helped create a market where many users expect powerful AI tools to be free or close to free,” explains the deVere CEO.
“It’s a remarkable achievement from a product perspective. It can be a much harder starting point from a monetisation perspective.”
He adds: “Public markets are going to ask tougher questions than private investors have asked.
“User growth and brand recognition is impressive. Neither automatically translates into margins that justify a valuation measured in hundreds of billions or even a trillion dollars.”
By contrast, he believes Anthropic may offer investors a different proposition.
“Anthropic has spent less time chasing public attention and more time building relationships with enterprises.
Business customers behave differently from consumers. They sign larger contracts, they’re often less price-sensitive and they tend to stay longer once systems become embedded in operations.”
Anthropic’s latest funding round valued the company at $965 billion, up sharply from earlier valuations, and it has become one of the leading providers of AI systems to large organisations.
“Enterprise adoption is where some of the most durable revenues in AI could emerge.
“For those investors looking beyond headlines, that deserves attention.”
SpaceX, meanwhile, occupies an entirely different category.
The Elon Musk-led company is aiming to raise approximately $86 billion in what would be the largest IPO in history, with reported demand already exceeding supply by around two-to-one.
“On conventional valuation metrics, plenty of investors will argue SpaceX looks expensive,” affirms Nigel Green.
“The challenge with that argument is that markets have spent two decades underestimating Elon Musk.”
He continues: “SpaceX is not simply a launch company. It’s a satellite communications business, a space infrastructure business and, increasingly, part of the broader AI ecosystem.
“Investors buying SpaceX are buying execution, ambition and optionality. They are buying into Musk’s vision that many previously dismissed and later regretted dismissing.
“There’s an argument to be made that they know there’s little chance it’s worth the valuation, but they have to buy Musk’s dream because you can’t really bet against him.”
Nigel Green concludes: “OpenAI is a bet on turning extraordinary consumer adoption into profits.
“Anthropic is a bet on enterprise AI becoming embedded across business.
“SpaceX is a bet on Elon Musk continuing to achieve what critics say cannot be done.”
