This morning’s data from Halifax on their HPI has shown that UK house prices have been remarkably resilient over the past year, with annual growth coming in at 3.2%. Hotspots were Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland. With the Bank of England expected to announce a 25bp cut to UK interest rates at lunchtime today, what do these latest data signal for mortgage and property experts? Below we share the reaction so far.
Rosie Hooper, chartered financial planner at Quilter Cheviot comments:
House prices rose slightly by 0.3% in April, according to the latest Halifax House Price Index, bringing annual growth to 3.2%. The data points to a housing market that is beginning to stabilise following a turbulent period driven by tax changes and shifting mortgage conditions.
Much of the recent volatility in transaction activity was the result of buyers rushing to complete purchases ahead of the stamp duty threshold changes that took effect in April. With the nil-rate band dropping from £250,000 to £125,000 and from £425,000 to £300,000 for first-time buyers March saw a sharp spike in completions as buyers raced to beat the deadline.
Given the time it takes to finalise a property purchase, the April price data offers one of the clearest indications yet of how the market is functioning without the support of favourable stamp duty rates and it suggests a stabilisation rather than a significant drop. While activity may have surged earlier in the year, prices are now responding to a more subdued, post-incentive environment.
That said, the outlook for borrowing costs has improved. Mortgage rates have edged lower in recent weeks, and attention now turns to the Bank of England’s interest rate decision this afternoon. A cut from 4.5% to 4.25% is widely expected, and any signal of further easing would provide a welcome boost to buyer sentiment as the year progresses.
Still, affordability remains a fundamental constraint. High prices, elevated monthly repayments, and the upfront cost burden introduced by the stamp duty changes are continuing to weigh on first-time buyers and those seeking to move up the ladder. It’s a reminder that while rates may ease at the margins, structural issues in the housing market persist.
Stamp duty in particular continues to distort behaviour. Short-term tax incentives may boost transaction volumes temporarily, but they often leave behind a softer market once withdrawn. A longer-term review of the tax is overdue. Stamp duty acts as a barrier to downsizing, discourages mobility, and glues up the housing chain particularly among older homeowners. Given that it contributes relatively little to government revenues, there’s a strong case for rethinking whether it remains fit for purpose in today’s market.
Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, comments:
“This is a sign of sustained confidence in the UK’s housing market following a recent Stamp Duty surge in homebuying, and it should give those sellers hoping to take advantage of the traditionally busier spring and summer months motivation to move up the housing ladder.
There has been recent data showing confidence in the mortgage market is fragile, and other reports suggesting that mortgage rates are at their lowest level since 2022. Hopefully, the Bank of England can provide further clarity to aspiring homeowners when they meet later today, and if the conditions are right to reduce interest rates, then this should make mortgages more affordable.”
Jonathan Handford, Managing Director at national estate agent group Fine & Country, comments:
He comments: “House prices ticked up in April, defying expectations of a slowdown after March’s stamp duty deadline frenzy and pointing to a market that’s proving more resilient than predicted.
The end of the stamp duty relief window in England sparked a surge in completions — with mortgage lending hitting a four-year high in March. Early signs suggest that this confidence is holding, particularly as mortgage rates begin to ease.
First-time buyers still face challenges, especially with the tax relief threshold now down £125,000, but falling inflation is providing a more encouraging backdrop. CPI dipped to 2.6% in March and markets are pricing in a potential base rate cut from the Bank of England, currently at 4.5%, possibly today.
Lenders have already begun trimming fixed-rate deals, with more products dropping below 4%. Combined with the traditional spring uplift in activity, these shifts may be keeping buyers in the game, despite ongoing affordability pressures.
The rebound in prices suggests the market may be finding its footing after a turbulent few months. With conditions slowly improving, it’s no longer just a question of catching a deadline, but of catching the right moment to move.”
Commenting on latest Halifax house prices showing a 3.2% increase compared to last year, Daniel Austin, CEO and co-founder at ASK Partners, said: “Despite a rise, we believe that growth is likely to face pressure and remain steady, as higher borrowing costs start to affect buyers, despite the market’s continued resilience. Investors and developers in the residential sector remain motivated by the supply demand imbalance and under the new government, we think there will be more projects that get off the ground. We are seeing a greater variety of housing options, such as co-living schemes, coming to market which fulfil the growing requirements of younger professional buyers. If prices flatten and interest rates start to fall, we will see more first-time buyers able to step onto the property ladder.”
