Today’s UK HMRC property transaction data showed a slight increase of 25% in property transactions, following a sharp decline the previous month. While this uptick signals some level of recovery, the data paints a more nuanced picture of the housing market, reflecting broader economic pressures such as rising interest rates, inflation, and regional disparities.
Experts and industry professionals have shared their views with us:
Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, comments:
“It is extremely positive to see an enhanced magnitude of transactions month-on-month.
But considering new Stamp Duty thresholds across England and Northern Ireland have kicked in, it’s understandable we have seen a considerable drop in housing transactions year-on-year.
The housing market saw a mass rush of people working at pace to complete on their housing purchase to avoid any increased Stamp Duty liability. Nonetheless, we have seen positivity regarding the number of properties coming to the market, which has delivered a year-on-year increase of almost 15 per cent.”
Tony Hall, Head of Business Development, Saffron for Intermediaries, Said:
“Today’s transactions data for May reflects a recent boost in confidence across the housing market after last month’s interest rate cut and a steady easing of inflation. Many buyers who had previously paused their plans are now returning to the market, encouraged by greater mortgage choice and increased supply. This shift is helping to unlock pent-up demand and push transaction volumes higher.
Looking ahead, there are reasons to remain optimistic. Although interest rates were held at 4.25% last Thursday, the government’s £39 billion pledge to boost affordable housing – announced in the Chancellor’s spending review earlier this month – will be welcome news for many. It signals that long-term housing challenges are being taken seriously, and with summer demand building and more homes coming to market, conditions are gradually shifting in buyers’ favour as we move into the second half of the year.”
Kevin Roberts, Managing Director of L&G’s Mortgage Services business, said: “Today’s figures are encouraging for the industry, especially after the flurry of activity we saw in March to beat the stamp duty changes deadline.
We know that borrower needs are ever-changing, with our broker data revealing an 80% increase in older first-time buyers aged between 56 and 65 looking for mortgages. This amplifies the value of advice to find the right product for individual needs, and is why speaking to a professional mortgage broker is essential for navigating the market.”
Rosie Hooper, chartered financial planner from Quilter Cheviot:
“After April’s sharp slump in transactions following the stamp duty threshold changes, May has seen a notable bounce back. Seasonally adjusted residential transactions rose by 25% month-on-month, showing the market is starting to rebalance after March’s deadline-driven activity and April’s subsequent lull.”
However, while this might suggest a return to normality, the bigger picture remains more subdued. Transaction volumes are still 12% lower than May last year, and when we look further back, the longer-term trend is clear. This May’s seasonally adjusted figure of 81,470 is among the lowest for the month since 2015—well below the 100,000-plus levels recorded between 2017 and 2022. Even compared to 2023, when the market was already slowing, volumes remain significantly depressed. This suggests that while demand hasn’t disappeared, buyers are still constrained by affordability and caution.”
The economic outlook is adding to that uncertainty. A potentially fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran, following weeks of heightened tensions, hangs over the global economy. Should hostilities flare up again, any disruption to oil supplies could send prices soaring, reigniting inflation and delaying any cuts to interest rates. That would have a knock-on effect on mortgage pricing here in the UK and could stall any tentative recovery in housing market activity.”
Ultimately, what we are seeing is a market highly reactive to policy shifts and global events. The recent fluctuations have been driven more by short-term tax deadlines than a resurgence in underlying buyer confidence. While the May uptick is welcome, it would be premature to see it as the start of a sustained recovery. The housing market remains fragile, and a more robust rebound will depend not just on cheaper mortgages but on broader economic stability and consumer confidence returning.”
Richard Pike, chief sales and marketing officer at Phoebus Software, says:
“After a quieter April, today’s data showing a rebound in property transactions for May is no surprise. April activity was artificially suppressed following the rush to complete in March ahead of the stamp duty deadline, so what we’re seeing now is a return to a more stable trend.
Encouragingly, interest rates have now settled at a level where buyers can make clearer, more confident decisions about what they can afford. Swap rates remain favourable, and this stability is allowing lenders and borrowers alike to plan with greater certainty. There’s real effort from the industry to boost the market, particularly at the first-time buyer end, where efforts like 95% and even 100% mortgages are helping to stimulate activity. But consumer confidence is still the linchpin and with global economic pressures looming, such as the end of Trump’s tariff pause on 9th July, the industry will need to continue to work hard to maintain this positive trajectory.”
Hamza Behzad, Business Development Director at Finova says:
Today’s increase is optimistic news for the housing market. Although overall transaction volumes did not match the heady highs of March – when millions of buyers rushed against the clock to meet the Stamp Duty threshold deadline – actual activity in the UK property market is still robust. This is a positive sign, but consumers should still take care in this evolving market. The base rate has clung to 4.25%, which may affect mortgage product availability and lead some aspiring buyers to postpone their homeowning dreams.
Nonetheless, the market is still rife with high LTV options, which will only ramp up competition and create windows of opportunity for buyers of all ages to step onto the property ladder. But lenders must continue to invest in innovative technology to deliver more efficient decisions and faster product-to-market times. The ability to scale and react at speed will be key to success in today’s dynamic market.”
In response, Ryan McGrath, Director of Second Charge Mortgages at Pepper Money, comments:
“Property transactions rebalanced in May after declining in April, in part due to the Stamp Duty deadline which created a race to the finish for homeowners looking to maximise savings. Despite an uptick in transactions month on month, with many homeowners still locked into historically low mortgage rates, we’re seeing a clear shift in behaviour.
Rather than risk higher borrowing costs by moving, homeowners are choosing to invest in the home they have and make their current space work better for them, whether that’s through renovations, extensions, or energy efficiency upgrades. Secured loans are one way to fund this trend, offering a practical way to unlock the money you need without disrupting your existing mortgage rate, unlike remortgaging.
As well as funding home improvements, homeowners can also consolidate debts, make business investments, or fund major life events at the same time, all while spreading the cost over a longer period of time than with a credit card or unsecured loan. While not always the right option, homeowners should speak to a broker to understand if a secured loan could suit their circumstances.”
Jonathan Handford, Managing Director at Fine & Country, comments: “The 25% surge in property transactions in May is a clear testament to the housing market’s resilience, marking a strong rebound after a period of economic turbulence.
April’s dip, driven by the Stamp Duty Land Tax threshold reverting to £125,000, was short-lived. Buyers have quickly recalibrated, breathing new life into market activity.
First-time buyers are looking to seize opportunities in the current market. With interest rates coming down again in May, lenders are offering more flexible mortgage products, including interest-only and low-deposit options. This demographic is playing a pivotal role in driving the uptick in transactions and the Government must do more to improve accessibility for them.
While the capital’s prime property market faces challenges due to recent tax reforms affecting non-domiciled residents, areas in northern England and Scotland are seeing the lion’s share of this growth.
The current momentum suggests a promising outlook for the UK property market in the coming months. House prices are holding steady, with incremental increases not deterring new buyers.”
Sharon Beedham, relationship director at ONP Solicitors, commented:
“The uptick in residential transactions for May is no surprise. Buyers rushed to complete ahead of April’s Stamp Duty threshold changes, resulting in an April slowdown followed by a strong May rebound – clearly demonstrating that tax policy continues to have a significant pull-forward effect on buyer behaviour.
At the same time, while residential numbers are up month-on-month, the 12–13% year-on-year decline shows the market is also still grappling with broader affordability pressures and economic uncertainty.
The sector needs consistency and clarity from policymakers to support sustained confidence. We’re seeing that when the rules shift, so does momentum, resulting in inevitable spikes in demand which often present a challenge for many in the sector. It will be interesting to see if activity can be sustained through the second half of the year without the crutch of temporary tax incentives.”
