Mid-sized businesses are predicted to contribute £745 billion to UK gross value added (GVA) and create an additional 1.9 million jobs by 2028, according to new forecasts.
The data, commissioned by accountancy and business advisory firm BDO, says mid-sized UK businesses will account for more than a quarter (27%) of total UK GVA and 9.9 million jobs by 2028. This compares to £545 billion (24%) and 8 million jobs in 2023.
Despite making up less than 1% of all UK businesses, the mid-market is expected to contribute 41% of cumulative total GVA growth in the next three years, highlighting the critical role these businesses will play in meeting the government’s ambitious growth targets.
As the government continues to consult on its ten-year Modern Industrial Strategy, BDO is urging policymakers to consider the importance of the mid-market to economic growth and jobs creation, and to ensure the strategy enables these businesses to unlock their full potential. A full set of policy proposals can be found in BDO’s 2025 Mid-Market Manifesto, also published today.
According to BDO’s research, mid-market businesses will generate significant increases to GVA contributions in every region of the country by 2028.
The professional services sector is projected to be the largest contributor to both GVA (£260 billion) and employment (2.4 million jobs) within the mid-market by 2028, reflecting the UK’s status as a leading professional services hub.
Manufacturing is forecast to be the second largest contributing sector, with mid-sized manufacturers expected to generate £132 billion in GVA. Consumer markets; technology, media and telecoms; and real estate and construction follow closely as major contributors.
Scott Knight, Head of Growth, Strategy and International at BDO, said:
“The Government’s growth agenda relies on the success of the engines of growth.
“Our mid-sized businesses need targeted support from the government – access to capital, a simplified tax regime and skills programmes.
“Only then can they unlock their potential and deliver growth to every corner of the country.”
Gareth Thomas, Exports Minister, said:
“Unlocking the full productivity potential of mid-sized businesses is crucial to this Government’s mission to go further and faster for UK-wide growth.
“We’re working in partnership with business to ensure they have the right support and recognition to overcome the barriers they face to help them to thrive, create jobs and grow the whole economy.”
The research analyses the performance of mid-sized firms, the UK’s ‘economic engine’ and calls for several policies to aid its growth, including streamlining taxation and increasing access to capital.
According to data released last year, the annual average GVA growth rate across all businesses was expected to be 1.9% between 2024 and 2027. Mid-sized businesses, however, have reported an annual growth rate of 6.4% for the last five years, further evidencing the mid-market’s crucial role in the UK’s economic growth.
Today’s mid-market businesses are also expected to play a significant role in job creation, providing an anticipated 1.9 million additional jobs since 2023, taking the total number of jobs within this segment to 10.3 million by 2028. Last year the turnover of these businesses had grown to £1.6tn, equivalent to more than half of the value of UK GDP. Revenue generated overseas by these firms now sits at £130bn.
All regions set to see mid-market share of total GVA increase by 2028
Looking across the UK, all regions are expected to see significant increases to GVA contributions from mid-market businesses by 2028, cementing their importance towards shared prosperity.
The most substantial contributions are forecasted to come from London and the Southeast, with GVA contributions growing by a quarter to £160 billion and £105 billion respectively by 2028.
Elsewhere, mid-sized businesses are expected to increase their contributions by 21% in the East Midlands, West Midlands and the North West (delivering £77 billion, the highest value outside of London and the Southeast).
While the majority of additional jobs in the mid-market is expected to come from London and the Southeast (+584,000 jobs), the Midlands (East & West combined) takes the top spot regionally (+326,000), followed by the East of England (+216,000) and the Northwest (+195,000).
