Earnings growth of 4.7% means the State Pension is set for another significant triple-lock rise next April, with the full new State Pension likely to increase by around £563 to £12,536 in 2026/27 — a boost welcomed by pensioners but sure to reignite debate over its long-term affordability.
Today’s figures on average earnings growth show that for the period from May to July 2025, annual growth in employees’ average earnings increased to 4.7% for total earnings including bonuses.
The higher of this figure, 2.5% or the inflation figure for September will determine the State Pension triple lock uprating.
David Brooks, Head of Policy at leading independent financial services consultancy Broadstone, said:
“Today’s earnings figures point to another substantial triple-lock increase next April, taking the full new State Pension right to the brink of the Personal Allowance.
“The Bank of England forecast in August that UK inflation would peak in the UK at 4% so it appears likely that today’s earnings figures will deliver around a £563 rise in the State Pension next year, taking it to £12,536 for 2026/27.
“The good news for millions of pensioners is that they will receive hundreds of pounds more income every year at a time when many still face persistent cost-of-living pressures and depend heavily on the State Pension as their main income.
“At a time of strained public finances, however, the rising cost of funding this benefit will once more come under scrutiny especially given the ongoing State Pension Age Review. Debate over the future of the triple lock itself, means-testing or alternative funding, such as via the introduction of a national insurance contribution of some kind, is likely to intensify.
“Increasingly the debate appears to be framed as triple-lock or nothing when it comes to increasing the State Pension. But most would consider it fair that the State Pension should increase and the Government has repeatedly committed to it for the remainder of this Parliament. The debate should be around whether the increase is dictated by an earnings link or an inflation link should be a priority.
“Sustaining the State Pension is a political choice but, for now, one which remains political too difficult to address.”
