The ONS today confirmed the increase in average weekly earnings for the period to July 2025 was 4.7%, meaning state pensions are likely to rise under the triple lock from April 2026, although more pensioners may face tax due to the ongoing freeze on the personal allowance.
This is one of the elements of the triple lock, the highest of which drives the increase to the state pension from April 2026.
- The triple lock means state pensions increase by the highest of inflation, earnings and 2.5%
- The CPI figure which is used (Inflation for the year to September 2025) will be announced in October. It was 3.8% for the year to July (an updated number for August will be announced tomorrow)
- This means the increase in earnings is likely to be the highest element and therefore be used to determine the increase in state benefits
- While the headline state pension increases by the triple lock, other parts of the state pension such as SERPS/S2P, the graduated pension, protected payments and benefits for deferring, will go up by CPI.
The new state pensions from April 2026
- If the state pension increase was driven by this increase in earnings, the headline single tier state pension from April 2026 would be £241.05 a week, up from the current £230.25 a week
- The maximum basic state pension paid to those who reached state pension age before 6 April 2016 is currently £176.45 a week and it would increase to £184.75 a week
- The personal allowance remains frozen at £12,570 until April 2028. This means more pensioners will be liable to tax solely as a result of their state pension
- While these are the headline rates many people receive less
Andrew Tully, Technical Services Director at Nucleus said:
“It looks like we will get another relatively substantial increase to the state pension from April 2026 which will be a welcome boost to many pensioners. However it means many more will pay income tax solely as a result of their state pension given the ongoing freeze to the personal allowance, and Government will need to consider the best process to easily allow these people to pay tax.
While the headline state pension increases by the triple lock, other parts of the state pension such as SERPS/S2P, the graduated pension, protected payments, and benefits for deferring, will go up by CPI which may be lower than earnings.
The Government has announced a review of the state pension age which will consider if and when state pension age moves to 68 and beyond. However rather than focus solely on state pension age, we need to consider the future of our state pension system as a whole. As well as state pension ages, this wider debate should consider a suitable level of state benefit, the future of the triple lock, differing life expectancy across the UK, and support for those below state pension age who aren’t able to work.‘
The history of the triple lock over the last ten years
| Year | CPI | Averageearnings | Index used | Triple lock | Basic State Pension (individual) | New State Pension |
| % increase | £ per week | £ per week | ||||
| 2016-17 | -0.10% | 2.90% | Earnings | 2.90% | £119.30 | £155.65 |
| 2017-18 | 1.00% | 2.40% | Fixed 2.5% | 2.50% | £122.30 | £159.45 |
| 2018-19 | 3.00% | 2.20% | CPI | 3.00% | £125.95 | £164.35 |
| 2019-20 | 2.40% | 2.60% | Earnings | 2.60% | £129.20 | £168.60 |
| 2020-21 | 1.70% | 3.90% | Earnings | 3.90% | £134.25 | £175.20 |
| 2021-22 | 0.50% | -1.0% | Fixed 2.5% | 2.50% | £137.60 | £179.60 |
| 2022-23* | 3.10% | 8.60% | CPI | 3.10% | £141.85 | £185.15 |
| 2023-24 | 10.10% | 5.50% | CPI | 10.10% | £156.20 | £203.85 |
| 2024-25 | 6.40% | 8.50% | Earnings | 8.50% | £169.50 | £221.20 |
| 2025-26 | 1.70% | 4.10% | Earnings | 4.10% | £176.45 | £230.25 |
