Talk and expectations have been doing the rounds this morning that the State Pension Triple lock is likely to be uplifted by average earnings.
With confirmation expected from next week’s average total pay figure, Jon Greer, head of retirement policy at Quilter, has been sharing his analysis that the sustainability of the triple lock going forwards is questionable.
Jon Greer said:
“The news reported today that the triple lock is likely to be uplifted by average earnings next year, with confirmation expected from next week’s average total pay figure, is a significant development for pensioners. According to the BBC, the Treasury anticipates that the new full state pension will be boosted above inflation by over £400 a year in cash terms.
“The triple lock ensures that the state pension increases every April by the highest of inflation, average wage increase, or 2.5%. This mechanism helps to maintain the purchasing power of pensions and provides financial security for retirees.
“However, the sustainability of the triple lock in the long term is questionable. It remains a contentious issue in pension policy, with no government willing to make drastic changes due to the potential backlash from a core voter base. Given recent changes to winter fuel payments which spurred immediate calls for a rethink due to the number of people who will struggle to pay their bills this winter as a result, any alterations to the triple lock by Labour seem entirely remote and more so given Rachel Reeves’ recent confirmation that it would stick by the policy.
“The debate around the triple lock often intersects with discussions on the appropriate level of the state pension relative to mean full-time earnings. There is a need for a consensus on the state pension level and a fair mechanism to ensure its value is maintained over time. Without such an approach, each uprating of the state pension risks creating generational divides. A system more closely aligned with average earnings might be more cost-effective and better reflect the nation’s overall prosperity.
“While the anticipated uplift in the state pension is positive news for pensioners, it is essential to consider the broader implications and sustainability of the triple lock policy. The government’s pension review will latterly look at pensions adequacy which must consider both state and private provision. Perhaps the review will be the mechanism to start the journey for change that removes the politics from the triple lock.”
