With the release of the latest HMRC property transactions data, industry experts and professionals within the mortgage and property sector have shared their thoughts and views:
Karen Noye, mortgage expert at Quilter:
“The property market has been riding a rollercoaster in recent months, and today’s HMRC figures confirm what many expected – a post-March slump. After the buying rush to beat the return of higher Stamp Duty rates, transaction numbers have inevitably collapsed by 64% month-on-month, reflecting the temporary nature of that surge.
On a year-on-year basis, transactions are also down considerable, with a drop of 28% on the year, painting a picture of a market that is normalising after artificial boosts. The slowdown in April also coincides with a modest contraction in UK house prices, which isn’t surprising – every time a stamp duty holiday ends, the market tends to catch its breath before regaining momentum.
History tells us that when temporary tax reliefs drive the market, they often create frenzied spikes followed by sharp slowdowns. We saw this during the pandemic, and today’s figures are just another reminder that short-term incentives don’t guarantee long-term stability.
However, don’t write off the market just yet. With the Bank of England trimming interest rates to 4.25%, mortgage rates have been drifting lower, with sub-4% deals becoming more common. As cheaper fixed-rate mortgages and lower reversion rates take hold, buyers emerging from their current deals could find the conditions much more favourable.
A sustained downward trend in rates could tempt more buyers back into the market, potentially lifting house prices over the coming months. Next month’s data may reflect the early impact of this shift, especially if speculation of further rate cuts – possibly two or three more before year-end – gains traction.
Looking further ahead, all eyes will be on Labour in the Autumn Budget to see if they extend a helping hand to first-time buyers. Yet, given the limited fiscal headroom available, any grand gestures seem unlikely – at least for now.”
Clare Beardmore, Director of Club and Distribution at L&G’s Mortgage Services business, said:
“This month’s fall in transactions is not a surprise. In March, buyers raced to meet the Stamp Duty threshold deadline, creating the ideal conditions for a month of historically frenetic activity. April was always unlikely to match these peaks. Nevertheless, the overall mood in the market is still upbeat. More properties are coming to market, and mounting competition between lenders is driving a marked increase in the availability of low-deposit mortgage options – our broker data shows that demand for 91–95% LTV products surged by 60% in Q1.
With the market moving fast and opportunities opening up, advisers can help consumers understand the choices available and – crucially – pick the right one for their situation. If you’re a first-time buyer or planning your next move, speaking to a mortgage adviser will be key to navigating the market and making smart, long-term decisions. As inflation levels out and the global markets react to U.S trade policies, a base rate cut this summer could boost affordability further, creating even more opportunities for borrowers to step onto the ladder.”
Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark comments:
“Today’s figures demonstrate the challenging journey many who approached the buying and selling process were experiencing just prior to the Stamp Duty threshold changes before April, and these challenges have escalated to this day thanks to a delicate global economy, inflation currently sitting at 3.5 per cent, whereas that inflation figure was 2.6 per cent during the timeframe of today’s figures, and the Bank of England rightly displaying caution regarding any lowering of the base rate. These factors added together appear to have dented the confidence of many potential home movers.
The summer months tend to be a busy time for the housing market, and with recent reports suggesting that mortgage rates could creep back upwards, the Bank of England will have its work cut out to maintain a balanced pathway forward that keeps inflation in check while delivering consumer confidence for the housing sector.”
Simon Webb, managing director of capital markets and finance at LiveMore, comments:
“A fall in transactions this month comes as little surprise following the surge we saw in March as buyers looked to complete before the stamp duty changes. But while activity may have dipped this month, it’s important not to lose sight of the longer-term shift we’re seeing in the property market – particularly among older homeowners.
“We’re continuing to see strong interest from people in their 50s, 60s and beyond who are looking to move, refinance or access equity to support their families. This segment of the market is often less reactive to short-term economic fluctuations and more focused on lifestyle changes, such as downsizing, relocating or adapting to retirement.
“The outlook remains encouraging. With interest rates expected to fall further this year, confidence is gradually returning and we believe the later life lending market will continue to grow in importance – not just as a source of housing activity, but as a key enabler of financial wellbeing in later life. The challenge now is to ensure that lending criteria, product innovation and advice services continue to keep pace with changing customer needs.”
Phil Lawford, National Account Manager, Saffron for Intermediaries, comments:
“A slight dip in transactions during April is not unexpected as the market adjusted to the recent Stamp Duty changes. Some buyers may have paused to reassess their position, particularly given the backlog to complete purchases ahead of the March deadline.
Despite the slower numbers, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic. We’re heading into the typically busy summer period, and government reforms to support housebuilders offer a fresh hope for increasing supply and revitalising the market – making it simpler and quicker for SMEs to build homes – these reforms improve choice and affordability for buyers. For those considering their next step, consulting a mortgage adviser can help make the most of this changing landscape.”
Adam Oldfield, CEO at Phoebus Software said: “A drop in transactions this month was always on the cards. March saw a significant spike as buyers rushed to beat the stamp duty deadline (more than double the same time last year) and with that temporary incentive now behind us, a slowdown in April was inevitable.
Looking ahead, there are a few key factors we’ll be keeping a close eye on. Interest rates remain front of mind – the Bank of England recently cut the base rate to 4.25%, and there’s growing expectation that we could see it fall further to 3.75% by the end of the year. If that materialises, it could go some way to easing mortgage affordability pressures, especially for first-time buyers.
That said, inflation has ticked up again, reaching 3.5% in April. Higher utility bills and increased taxation continue to squeeze household budgets, and that will likely have a knock-on effect on confidence in the housing market.
On top of that, the supply side remains an ongoing concern. The government looks set to miss its target of 1.5 million new homes by 2029, potentially falling short by as many as 500,000. That shortfall could keep upward pressure on prices, even if demand softens in the short term.
While a post-March dip was expected, we’re still seeing resilience in the market. The next few months will be shaped by how these macroeconomic pressures evolve – and how quickly both buyers and lenders can adjust to the shifting landscape.”
In response to the HMRC Property Transactions Data published today, Ryan McGrath, Director of Second Charge Mortgages at Pepper Money, comments: “Property transactions dropped in April from the elevated levels seen in March, when buyers rushed to complete purchases before the Stamp Duty discount ended.
But with inflation rising to 3.5% last week, and expected to increase again in the summer, cost-of-living pressures continue to weigh on homeowners’ minds, particularly if they need to move but have a favourable mortgage rate fixed in place. This means improving rather than moving can be an attractive alternative. Secured loans are one way to fund home renovations without impacting the rate on your current mortgage.
This option is proving increasingly popular with consumers, between 2023 and 2025 the total volume of secured loans increased by more than a quarter (26%), reaching £470 million in Q1 of 2025 alone.* As well as home refurbishments, these loans can be used to consolidate debts, settle personal tax bills, pay for unexpected life events, and cover school fees. While not right for everyone, more consumers are recognising the flexibility that secured loans can provide when compared to personal loans or credit cards.”
